Play Ball! 2005 Baseball Forecast Part II

How do you predict pennant winners for Major League Baseball in 2005? Follow the money.

If whoever dies with the most toys wins, then whichever team has the highest salary generally wins their division and makes the playoffs. Once you get to the playoffs things might get a bit interesting with the choke factor and pressure on guys who only make a lousy $5 million a year.

For the last few decades, the Yankees have had the highest payroll in baseball (last year was $184 million, this year over $200 million). But last year they were bested by Boston, a team that coincidentally had the SECOND highest payroll ($127 million). Boy, was I surprised! Then Boston swept St. Louis, which everyone saw coming since the Cardinals only had a puny $83 million payroll. The Red Sox broke the curse, pigs flew and Satan skated all day.

OK, so money doesn’t guarantee a championship. X factors like injuries, bad management and being part of the Mets can sink a team no matter how fat the checkbook is. But if you look at the 2004 payroll, you will notice a striking similarity between a team’s payroll, their standing, and their playoff chances. And that’s why almost all the teams who made the playoffs last year will make them this year. And people wonder why baseball is our fourth most popular sport and TV ratings keep sliding.

Oh yeah, there’s one more factor: pitching. In football, defense wins championships. In baseball, defense is pitching. So whoever has the best pitchers generally wins. Whoever has the most money can afford the best pitchers. If there’s a good pitcher on a bad club, he’ll usually be traded to a club who can afford him in due time so the bad team has no way to improve. Get the picture?

Teams are listed in their order of finish, along with their 2004 payroll to keep proving some kind of point.

AL EAST

1) NY Yankees ($200 million plus): Something weird is happening in the Bronx. Joe Torre hasn’t won in five years but he’s still managing. Carlos Beltran was available last year, but Steinbrenner realized he already had four outfielders and two DHs. Therefore, the Yankees actually spent money on PITCHING. Furthermore, the Yankees got Randy Johnson, a lefthander to combat the Red Sox’s fearsome array of left-handed batting. What the hell is going on here? Oh wait, Kevin Brown is getting paid $15 million. That’s more like it.

2) Boston Red Sox ($127 million): Boston retained its lineup but had some inevitable shuffling in the starting rotation. Wells replaces Martinez (good), Clement replaces Lowe (hmm) and Wade Miller might replace Wakefield (uh oh). There’s still no reason this team can’t make the wild card.

3) Baltimore Orioles ($51 million): The rest of the AL East is kind of a wash because the teams don’t have the cash to keep up with the Sox and Yankees. I’ll pick Baltimore next because they have a decent lineup and they have two pitchers (Ponson and Lopez) that should win about 12 games.

4) Toronto Blue Jays ($50 million): The only team left in Canada, but I won’t hold that against them.

5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays ($30 million): It won’t surprise me if Tampa claws through to fourth again, but that’s as far as they’ll go. It says something when Lou Pinella is the most entertaining Devil Ray.

AL CENTRAL

1) Minnesota Twins ($54 million): Surprisingly, the Twinkies are NOT the highest payroll team in the division. Chicago is, but the White Sox appear to be run by the Keystone Cops. While the Twins also benefit from playing in a truly horrible division, they also are loosening the purse strings to re-sign Johan Santana to a $40 million contract. The Twins also have a talent for finding amazing closers out of thin air. Just where did Joe Nathan come from? Unfortunately, the Twins are going to have to get more money and aggression before dethroning the Yankees or Red Sox anytime soon.

2) Chicago White Sox ($65 million): This is a weird team. It’s actually got a decent starting rotation filled with ex-Yankee Cuban defectors (Contreras and Hernandez). But while pitching is the most important thing, you do need someone to swing a bat and nobody in Chicago’s lineup can hit over .300 with Ordonez and Carlos Lee gone. Also, pitching extends to the bullpen, and the bullpen is putrid.

3) Cleveland Indians ($34 million): Coco Crisp? I’m cuckoo for Cleveland! I’m cuckoo for Cleveland! Ha ha, sorry I couldn’t resist that one…Cleveland appears to have studied Moneyball pretty closely, as it boasts a young team with few stars that actually have a good attitude and hustle toward the game. Unfortunately, it missed the part of the book that read having a low payroll means you have no chance at a championship. I also can’t trust a club that has C.C. Sabathia as its top starter.

4) Detroit Tigers ($47 million): The offense is shaping up and the Tigers curiously have two closers (Urbina and Troy Percival), which is strange for a club that only won 72 games. If they can trade one of those guys for a legitimate starter, they could reach .500.

5) KC Royals ($47 million): I like manager Tony Pena, but he’s stuck in the mud with these chumps. 100 losses is possible.

AL WEST

1) Anaheim/Los Angeles/Orange County Angels ($101 million): Ah, this is more like it. A club with deep pockets that coincidentally can afford great players. If the Angels’ batting order stays healthy, they can actually keep up with Boston and the Yankees. Look at this – Erstad, Guerrero, Garrett Anderson, Finley, Molino, Cabrera. Muy fantastico! Their starting five includes Bartolo Colon, Washburn and Escobar, who should do well if they don’t miss any Weight Watchers meetings. Francisco Rodriguez is the new closer, and he is truly amazing. He could be the next Mariano Rivera.

2) Oakland A’s ($59 million): Rebuilding year for Billy Beane. I expect him to make some good pickups and contend for the wild card like he always does, but losing Hudson and Mulder was too much for him. Jason Kendall and John Harden were good signings.

3) Texas Rangers ($55 million): I’ll admit the Rangers played better than I expected last year. I thought Blalock and Teixiera would be trade bait in August, but the Rangers hung tight as KENNY ROGERS WON 18 GAMES. Texas (including Houston) may be where old pitchers get reborn. Cordero is a great closer, but with Chan Ho Park still in the starting rotation, the Rangers are still two good starters away from challenging the Angels.

4) Seattle Mariners ($81 million): No pitcher in Seattle won more than nine games last season. So they signed Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson to pump up the offense. What do you think the Mariners could get when they trade Ichiro in July?

NL EAST

1) Atlanta Braves ($91 million): This team always finds a way to win. Last year they turned into a hitting machine. I’m not concerned about John Smoltz starting, but would you want Raul Mondesi as your starting right fielder? And did anyone notice that Mike Hampton won 13 games last year? With Tim Hudson now pitching in Turner Field, I just don’t see the other teams here having enough to challenge the perennial winner.

2) Florida Marlins ($42 million): I’m going with my gut in saying if the Marlins stay healthy (which didn’t happen last year), they could even be a wild card team. Everyone forgot the Marlins won it all in 2003 and even though they looked like a nursing home last year they still won 83 games. Delgado signed here in the offseason and Luis Castillo and Miguel Cabrera are good. If Leiter still has gas in the tank, if Dontrelle Willis regains his 2003 form and if the bullpen settles down the Marlins will scare people (yeah, yeah, that’s a lot of ifs).

3) NY Mets ($97 million): I think Omar Minaya believes he’s the Yankee GM, because the long-term deals he’s signed bring back those truly horrible overpaid 1980s Yankee clubs to mind. Four years for Martinez? Seven for Beltran? Yikes. I really want to give the Mets a chance because I like Willie Randolph, a childhood hero who finally gets a chance to prove himself. While few will question signing Martinez and Beltran, $21 million to KRIS BENSON over three years doesn’t strike me with the same confidence. While the Mets are certainly better than last year, a weak bullpen and overall chemistry won’t overcome some big holes. However, if the Mets are still contending come August, I do think Minaya will pay a key player whatever it takes to sign him.

4) Philadelphia Phillies ($93 million): Last year’s underachievers become this year’s mediocre team. Generalissimo Bowa is gone but last year’s bad pitching remains. Jon Lieber can’t do it alone.

5) Washington Nationals ($42 million): The Nationals finally escaped from their Canadian captors and are welcomed with open arms to our nation’s capital. However, the team is still last year’s Montreal Expos.

NL CENTRAL

1) St. Louis Cardinals ($83 million): The lack of a big time starter finally caught up to the Cardinals once they no longer had to play in the truly awful NL Central. Houston took them to seven games and then they got swept in the World Series. Anyone who doesn’t think Mark Mulder is better than Woody Williams can go to the head of the stupid line. Except for the shortstop shuffle, the rest of the team is intact. Think Chris Carpenter and Larry Williams will stay healthy all year? Me too.

2) Houston Astros ($75 million): Speaking of health, imagine what the Astros could have done if Pettite stayed healthy all year. Clemens and Roy Oswalt carry the pitching load. If Adam Everett and Lance Berkman pick up Beltran’s production, this team should get the wild card again.

3) Chicago Cubs ($90 million): Speaking of health, the Cubs can walk away with this division if Kerry Wood and Mark Prior and Nomar Garciaparra could stay uninjured for more than seven games. If they do and Dempster fills Clement’s shoes, the Cubs should make the playoffs. Of course, we all know what happens to Chicago when success beckons.

4) Cincinnati Reds ($46 million): I think Ken Griffey Jr. used to play on the Reds. Boy, he was a great player. Whatever happened to him?

5) Pittsburgh Pirates ($32 million): It doesn’t really matter who finishes fifth and sixth in this division. Pittsburgh is the perfect example of what’s wrong with baseball. Once a powerhouse as recently as a decade ago, the Pirates have lost a slew of all-stars because the team can’t afford to re-sign them. Last year, the Pirates had two bona fide new stars in lefty starter Oliver Perez and Rookie of the Year Jason Bay. But everyone knows that by June the Pirates will be worse than Courtney Love’s parenting skills and both of them will be on the trade block. In return, the Pirates will get washed up players like Benito Santiago and Jose Mesa who they can get cheap. Bleah.

6) Milwaukee Brewers ($27 million): Hard to believe that Bud Selig, who has helped run baseball into the ground, still owns this team (through his family). Easier to believe that the team has been for sale for over five years and nobody wants it.

NL WEST
1) LA Dodgers ($93 million): Most teams have good bats and no pitchers. The Dodgers have the opposite problem. True, Dodger Stadium is a pitcher’s park, but couldn’t the team fork out a few bucks for Ordonez, Garciaparra or the hundred other .325 hitters that signed up last season? Despite this, pitching wins championships and the Dodgers won the West last year. The Dodgers did sign some .285 hitters in Jeff Kent and JD Drew. New pitchers Derek Lowe and Brad Penny will do fine in the cavernous field, where even Jeff Weaver is a .500 pitcher.

2) San Diego Padres ($55 million): If Bonds is out all season, the Padres could sneak right into the wild card spot. It’s been a long rebuilding project, but the Padres aren’t too bad this year. Jake Peavy and Brian Lawrence are good pitchers and the offense is efficient, although there’s no big name stars. Trevor Hoffman seems to have his groove back.

3) San Francisco Giants ($82 million): As the Yankees keep learning, never tie too much of your franchise on one guy. My gut says Bonds is out for the season. Jason Schmidt is a good starter, but the geriatric lineup and mediocre pitching won’t carry the rest of the team.

4) Arizona Diamondbacks ($70 million): Arizona won’t lose 111 games this year, but they won’t lose much less. What do Shawn Green, Sean Estes, Javier Vazquez, and Troy Glaus have in common? They’re all new Diamondbacks and they’re all three years past their prime.

5) Colorado Rockies ($65 million): I truly can’t say where the $65 million goes in Colorado. The good news is the thin air means you can get drunk in Coors Field faster than any other ballpark.