Dave's Mighty 2009 NFL Predictions

Has it only been seven months since the great sport of football last graced our televisions? Do you remember looking back on my predictions that stated the Arizona Cardinals would be NFC Champions at 9-7? That Kerry Collins would come off the bench and lead Tennessee to a 13-3 record? You don’t? Well, how about where I compared Matt Millen to a box of rocks and said Detroit had nothing to be proud of? I nailed that one.

If you haven’t done so, it’s time to stimulate the economy like I did and start watching football on a REALLY BIG TV. I can even read the player’s tattoos.
So here we go, along with my dark horse picks. Just a warning: My political musings are usually more accurate than my NFL ones.

NFC EAST
1) NY Giants: You’re going to notice a trend this year. Good teams have good defenses and good running games. Bad teams have neither. The Giants are a study in the former. Is there a better offensive or defensive line in football? Brandon Jacobs loves to hit people, and he’s not even on defense. Eli Manning is streaky, but tends to just squeak through in the clutch.
2) Philadelphia: Wild Card Team. I’ll say this for Philly this year – they won’t be boring. I don’t think the players have the slightest idea what’s going to happen if McNabb enters a funk and Vick is on the bench. That said, I’m not sure how much gas Westbrook has left, and Jim Johnson’s death leaves a mighty big void.
3) Dallas: There’s no T.O., but they’re not getting younger, especially on the offensive line. They’ve got some talent at RB with Marion Barber and Felix Jones (when Barber’s healthy) and DeMarcus Ware is great, but after Ware the defense kind of slacks off. Look out Wade!
4) Washington: The good news is they have Albert Haynesworth, although Dan Snyder overpaid as usual. But it’s not good when Snyder tries to dump the QB that the coach is trying to build around. If Jason Campbell heats up the Skins might surprise us, but there’s not enough pop in the team.

NFC NORTH
1) Green Bay: Surprise! The Packers were 6-10 last year but Aaron Rodgers played well and the offense is great, with Greg Jennings and Ryan Grant. They’ve switched to the 3-4 defense which might take a game or two to settle in but will provide more flexible to LBs Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk. And as nice as the people in Wisconsin are, don’t you just know what’s going to happen when Farve shows up?
2) Minnesota: Wild Card Team. Yes, Farve makes the Vikings better. Yes, everyone has forgotten how he single-handedly destroyed the Jets late last year with bad mistakes. The defense is actually pretty good, provided their best player – Pat Williams – doesn’t get suspended.
3) Chicago: Lots of people are picking the Bears as their NFC Champion because of Jay Cutler. This is the same Jay Cutler that led the Broncos to a mighty 8-8, and that’s when he actually had someone good to throw to. Cutler won’t solve the Bears’ defensive and injury woes either.
4) Detroit: For years I laughed at Detroit because of Matt Millen’s bonehead mind, decisions, leadership, scouting and overall football knowledge. But when the Lions finally got what they deserved and threw him out, now I actually feel bad for them and want them to win. I’m tempted to make them my Dark Horse team because if they win three games, they’re the most improved. I’ll resist the temptation, but three wins sounds right.

NFC SOUTH
1) Atlanta: It will be tougher this year and this is a good division. But there are too many new stars on this team; Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White on offense (plus Tony Gonzalez joined), plus John Abraham, Mike Peterson and Curtis Lofton on defense. Atlanta just seems hungrier than the other teams here.
2) New Orleans: No problem on offense with Drew Brees gunslinging, but the defense stinks more than a Bourbon Street gutter. And their best defensive players – Will Smith and Charles Grant – will likely be suspended for four games. That’s too big a hole to climb out of.
3) Carolina: Tough ride for QB Jake Delhomme. He’s solid, but I think the beating they took in the playoffs last year still stings. A great RB with DeAngelo Williams and a mean defensive line, but they lack the eye of the tiger.
4) Tampa Bay: It’s not a good sign when I couldn’t remember the last team in this division. When I did, I also remembered the new offensive coordinator got fired last week, longtime defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is gone and Byron Leftwich is the starting QB. Next!

NFC WEST
1) Arizona: True, I did not pick the Cardinals to win the division last year but they were my dark horse team. And in what could be the weakest division, another 9-7 season could clinch it again. Offensively the Cards are fun to watch and Kurt Warner is the perfect QB for the spread offense they use, although the running could be better. Defense is another story, but when your division opponents are the three teams below how good do you need to be?
2) San Francisco: Dark Horse Team. I’m picking the Niners to surprise a few teams and finish around .500 because of coach Mike Singletary. If he is half as scary on the sidelines as he was on the field, the Niners will not only fear for their lives but he will become the meanest player to become a good coach since Jack Del Rio. He’s not afraid to bench starters and probably screams louder than anyone else in the locker room. It’s not good when the starting QB is someone named Shaun Hill, but Frank Gore is the RB and there’s signs of life on defense.
3) Seattle: No team got hurt more last year than the Seahawks. QB Matt Hasselback returns and can throw to TJ Houshmandzadeh. The defense is good. But the starting RB is Julius Jones.
4) St. Louis: Best of luck to former Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo on his new gig. It’s good there’s no pressure on him this year, because turning the Rams defense into something respectable is at least 365 days away. RB Steven Jackson can’t do it all, and I think Marc Bulger has been quarterback since Kurt Warner left town.

AFC EAST
1) New England: Not a tough pick, but methinks trouble looms ahead on defense. Longtime leaders Mike Vrabel, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, Teddy Bruschi and Junior Seau are gone. That said, Belichick is good at making lemonade and Brady is back with Wes Welker, Randy Moss and Joey Galloway. The league’s best offense should overcome.
2) Miami: Two reasons they won’t repeat. First, they went from a last place schedule to a first place schedule, and second, everyone’s ready for the Wildcat now. But the offensive line is good and Ronnie Brown is a great RB.
3) NY Jets: The focus is on new QB Mark Sanchez (who, by the way, only has WR Jerricho Cotchery to throw at. Hello, double coverage?). But look at the rest of the Jets team; they’re…good. Not great, but good. RB Thomas Jones got 1500 yards but is 31. DT Kris Jenkins is good but won’t start anyone’s fantasy league.
4) Buffalo: Everyone is excited about T.O. and the no-huddle offense. When Buffalo last run a no-huddle, they had the league’s best offensive line and Jim Kelly was QB. This time they have the league’s worst offensive line and Trent Edwards is QB. RB Marshawn Lynch is suspended for three or four games. Looks like another long winter.

AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh: Not a tough pick, part two. Everyone is back from last year, but I’m curious to see if teams try to spread the Steelers mighty defense across the field this time after the Cardinals almost pulled it off in the Super Bowl. How cool are James Harrison and Troy Polamalu?
2) Baltimore: Wild Card Team. Ferocious defense? Check (Haloti Ngati, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs). Good QB? Check (Joe Flacco). Good RB? Maybe (Ray Rice and Laron McClain, no relation to the Arizona senator). If one of those RBs shines, look out Pittsburgh.
3) Cincinnati: Well, there’s Carson Palmer and that Ochocinco guy and then, uh, who’s on defense? Wasn’t Marvin Lewis supposed to fix that five or six years ago?
4) Cleveland: I understand that new head coaches usually start with a bad team, but not even Bill Walsh could turn this team around. Besides the QB debacle, can you name one player? And if you can, does he impress you?

AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis: This was a tough pick, because Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison are gone. But Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Adam Vinatieri and Dwight Freeney are still there. But the Colts are no longer elite and I don’t see them going far in the playoffs, let alone against New England or Pittsburgh.
2) Tennessee: Wild Card Team. I just can’t see the Titans going 13-3 again, especially without Albert Haynesworth and Jim Schwartz on defense. And as much as I like Kerry Collins, his age and streakiness don’t bode well in the long run.
3) Houston: Dark Horse Team. In a weaker division, the Texans would be in the playoffs this year, and they may sneak in if the Titans or Colts screw up. Matt Schaub has become a solid QB and Andre Johnson is one of the best WRs in football. The defense is great with future stars DT Mario Williams and LB DeMeco Ryans. If they can cut the turnovers and get a good divisional record, they could pull it off.
4) Jacksonville: Two years ago Jacksonville was 11-5 and I thought 2008 was their year. Then their best offensive lineman got shot the first week of the season and injuries flattened the rest of them. The new GM has cleaned house and while everyone likes RB Maurice Jones-Drew, this is what they call a “rebuilding year.” Eh.

AFC WEST
1) San Diego: This is how bad this division is. The Chargers won with an 8-8 record. As predicted, Coach Norv Turner has underachieved as usual, although it would be tough to mess up a club with Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, LaDanian Tomlinson and Shawne Merriman.
2) Kansas City: Look at this way – when you have four games against Denver and Oakland you can go 4-12 and in this division, 4-12 is good enough for second. The Chiefs seem to have the fewest problems among the three doormats here provided QB Matt Cassell gets healthy fast, and with Dwayne Bowe and Larry Johnson the offense could show signs of life.
3) Denver: Let’s see. New coach Josh McDaniels got rid of the starting QB for…Kyle Orton. The best remaining player, WR Brandon Marshall, wants a trade. Except for new CB Champ Bailey, there is no defense to speak of, and I’ve never heard of the RB. Apart from that, everything’s peachy.
4) Oakland: Richard Seymour just got traded here and he has refused to report to the team. Can you blame him? Oh, and the team got rid of QB Jeff Garcia so JaMarcus Russell can keep up his good work.

Why I'll Miss Ted Kennedy

“While the deep concern of a woman bearing an unwanted child merits consideration and sympathy, it is my personal feeling that the legalization of abortion on demand is not in accordance with the value which our civilization places on human life. Wanted or unwanted, I believe that human life, even at its earliest stages, has certain rights which much be recognized--the right to be born, the right to love, the right to grow old…When history looks back to this era it should recognize this generation as one which cared about human beings enough to halt the practice of war, to provide a decent living for every family, and to fulfill its responsibility to its children from the very moment of conception.”

Ted Kennedy, August 3, 1971

I am not from Massachusetts and never bought into the Kennedy mystique. He was, at the end of the day, a politician – and one who, like the example above shows, flip flopped as much as any other. He cared about the environment, but opposed putting a wind farm off Nantucket Sound. When his fellow Massachusetts senator John Kerry was close to winning the presidency in 2004, he got his home state to change the law to make sure the then-Republican governor couldn’t appoint anyone to the position, but on his deathbed tried to change the very law he championed when a Democrat was governor. His drinking and sexual indulgences lasted into his 50s. And you could argue that Kennedy’s crusade against Robert Bork in 1987 set the stage for the hyperpartisan gnashing and voting that greets any Supreme Court nominee today.

Why then, will I miss Ted Kennedy? Well, first as a selfish Massachusetts resident Kennedy certainly had the chops to bring both the pork and bacon home to his constituents. But most importantly – and unlike his late brothers – Kennedy spent his career in the Senate and understood the art of compromise and the importance of deal-making in order to get things accomplished. The best advice I ever heard on negotiating was if someone offers you at least 51% of what you want, take it. Kennedy grasped this, and was unafraid to cross the aisles to work with Republicans to get him at least more than halfway to his eventual goal. I would divide Kennedy’s life in half. The first is pre-1980, when he literally got away with murder, was more known for boozing than legislating and embarked on a truly misguided presidential campaign and one of the most liberal convention speeches in history that gave Reagan the election on a silver platter.

But afterward, Kennedy became the new Henry Clay. He never renounced his liberalism but always strove to get things accomplished. Instead of going for the Hail Mary touchdown pass of liberalism he described in his convention speech, perhaps the 1980 campaign and election seemed to awaken the understanding that going yard by yard was a better way to get things done. Much has been written about how universal health care was his lifelong goal. That was never achieved – and it seems increasingly unlikely it will be achieved again this year. But look at Kennedy’s incremental health care accomplishments – Americans with Disabilities Act, SCHIP, COBRA, the National Institute of Health and the National Cancer Institute. Those are impressive accomplishments that not only extend the liberal notion of health care access but are causes that nobody could refute.

And if you look not only at those accomplishments, but also at Kennedy’s more recent achievements like No Child Left Behind and the immigration bill that did not become law, you notice they were all bipartisan. Most were also achieved with people like John McCain, Bob Dole and Nancy Kassebaum – Republicans who also understood the art of the deal and the importance of compromise.

It’s a sad comparison to the state of Congress today, where both parties are headed by rabid hyperpartisans unversed in dealmaking and wanting an all-or-nothing approach. Much has been said that if Kennedy were still able to attend Senate hearings the last few months, a health care bill would have been passed. I would say that if Kennedy were still around, he’d be working on a compromise with Republican colleagues that would ensure something effective would be passed. It would probably not be everything the president wants, but it would be at least 51% of it.

More Info: Some people have said Kennedy is burning in hell. I haven’t seen such blind partisan hatred for the departed since, well, since liberals hoped Jerry Falwell was burning in hell.