If you don’t live in Boston, you have no idea how devoted local Bostonians are to their Red Sox. No matter how successful the other teams may be, this is first and foremost a baseball town. In the dead of winter, a Red Sox free agent pickup will run at the top of the sports pages over a Celtics or Patriots victory.
The Red Sox have the payroll to put a competitive team in the American League East for years, and of course the long championship drought ended in 2004. But despite the league’s second highest payroll, injuries and an underachieving bullpen have devastated the Red Sox this year, and the team will not make the playoffs.
The Red Sox jumped the shark after the Yankees swept a five-game series at Fenway in August, and since then the team has vanished. It’s bizarre. The team is a non-entity here, with game summaries disappearing into the back pages. No traffic jams at Kenmore Square. Tickets are easy to obtain, and scalpers aren't making a dime. Fans aren’t even talking about next year. The team and its owners are being treated like jilted lovers – completely erased from Bostonian lives.
I didn’t make any baseball predictions this year, but last year I said baseball’s steady decline in popularity was due to its financial structure that places rich teams in large markets like New York an advantage over many of the small market teams, and the best bet to succeed in baseball is to be able to afford the best stars money can buy. Of course I’m a capitalist, but the NFL, the NBA and, belatedly, the NHL learned that a salary cap is the best financial solvent for sports and the best way for every team to have a shot at a championship.
For small market and small payroll teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, there is no way they will ever compete with the large payroll teams. This has caused baseball TV ratings (and subsequent revenues) to plummet and baseball now ranks behind football, NASCAR and basketball in popularity. What is the point of following baseball in a place like Tampa Bay or Milwaukee knowing your team never has a chance of competing?
Here in Boston, the Red Sox’s disappointing season has brought this point home. It’s bizarre to be in a place where baseball has practically ceased to exist. Unfortunately, this is the case in most of the country, and baseball has reaped what it has sown.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
The Unimportance of a Top-Ranked College
Many college freshmen are starting their university lives in colleges they didn’t want to enter. Either they didn’t quite qualify for that Ivy League degree or, more likely, they couldn’t afford to get into the higher-rated school. If they come from a wealthy suburb and an upper-middle-class home, their parents are apoplectic and almost apologize to their friends for their failure to motivate their children into a school with a better U.S. News & World Report ranking.
While things like money and a family fortune can start you at first or second base in the game of life (instead of starting in the batter’s box), the importance of a name-brand prep school or a top-tier education are grossly overrated when it comes to defining tomorrow’s leaders. A recent Wall Street Journal column illustrates the relative unimportance of top schools with later success. Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott attended Pittsburg State University. ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson went to the University Texas. Warren Buffet graduated from the University of Nebraska. Current Intel and Costco CEOs attended local state schools nobody 50 miles away from the college has heard of, including me. If you scan the Fortune 500, only 10% of their CEOs attended an Ivy League school, and more attended the University of Wisconsin than Harvard.
Intelligence and connections are nice to have, and it will certainly never hurt to have that Ivy League degree, but ambition and drive trumps everything else. Whether you want to run a Fortune 500 or be an entrepreneur or even a professional athlete, the people who work the hardest and try the hardest are the ones who typically end up succeeding. They don’t let the lack of a big-time and expense-laden Ivy League education hold them back. I didn’t attend an Ivy League school, but my friends and I used to joke every time we walked through Harvard Square we were probably walking past bums who were smarter than we were. The will to succeed, plus an old-fashioned work ethic, will always overcome IQ and what it says on your diploma.
Many of our business leaders didn’t even finish college. The exploits of people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Ted Turner and Michael Dell are legendary in business circles. They didn’t let their education or mediocre grades slow them down. And don’t forget – after your first job, your education goes from the top of your resume to the bottom. You will learn more about business and reality in the first six months out of school than the four or more years you spent in it. And if you talk up your SAT scores or college GPA on your first job interview, you’ll be tarred as foolish and unready for a career. And if you try to impress future dates or make new friends by impressing them with what you learned in school or your inclusion in the honors society, you’ll be alone every Saturday.
When I look back on my prep high school, I recall that many of the people who got A’s basically regurgitated whatever the teachers told them on tests and papers. That probably got them into good colleges, but when you enter the business world, doing everything by the book will probably get you stuck in middle management. The real leaders challenge rules, and find new ways to solve problems – they take risks by not doing what they’ve learned in school or even on the job. Sometimes they fail, but more often they’ll be more happy and successful than those who continue to do it the rote way.
So if you are reading this and didn’t get into the college of your choice, or blame your lot in life on your job or education, stop fretting. You’re smarter than you think, and you find smart people at every job and college. Take a look at some of them, learn where they went to school, and you’ll understand why the name of your college or what it says on your diploma does not predict your future. None of the people I mentioned above would let their lives be foretold by a dippy high school guidance counselor or college admissions officer, and neither should anyone else.
While things like money and a family fortune can start you at first or second base in the game of life (instead of starting in the batter’s box), the importance of a name-brand prep school or a top-tier education are grossly overrated when it comes to defining tomorrow’s leaders. A recent Wall Street Journal column illustrates the relative unimportance of top schools with later success. Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott attended Pittsburg State University. ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson went to the University Texas. Warren Buffet graduated from the University of Nebraska. Current Intel and Costco CEOs attended local state schools nobody 50 miles away from the college has heard of, including me. If you scan the Fortune 500, only 10% of their CEOs attended an Ivy League school, and more attended the University of Wisconsin than Harvard.
Intelligence and connections are nice to have, and it will certainly never hurt to have that Ivy League degree, but ambition and drive trumps everything else. Whether you want to run a Fortune 500 or be an entrepreneur or even a professional athlete, the people who work the hardest and try the hardest are the ones who typically end up succeeding. They don’t let the lack of a big-time and expense-laden Ivy League education hold them back. I didn’t attend an Ivy League school, but my friends and I used to joke every time we walked through Harvard Square we were probably walking past bums who were smarter than we were. The will to succeed, plus an old-fashioned work ethic, will always overcome IQ and what it says on your diploma.
Many of our business leaders didn’t even finish college. The exploits of people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Ted Turner and Michael Dell are legendary in business circles. They didn’t let their education or mediocre grades slow them down. And don’t forget – after your first job, your education goes from the top of your resume to the bottom. You will learn more about business and reality in the first six months out of school than the four or more years you spent in it. And if you talk up your SAT scores or college GPA on your first job interview, you’ll be tarred as foolish and unready for a career. And if you try to impress future dates or make new friends by impressing them with what you learned in school or your inclusion in the honors society, you’ll be alone every Saturday.
When I look back on my prep high school, I recall that many of the people who got A’s basically regurgitated whatever the teachers told them on tests and papers. That probably got them into good colleges, but when you enter the business world, doing everything by the book will probably get you stuck in middle management. The real leaders challenge rules, and find new ways to solve problems – they take risks by not doing what they’ve learned in school or even on the job. Sometimes they fail, but more often they’ll be more happy and successful than those who continue to do it the rote way.
So if you are reading this and didn’t get into the college of your choice, or blame your lot in life on your job or education, stop fretting. You’re smarter than you think, and you find smart people at every job and college. Take a look at some of them, learn where they went to school, and you’ll understand why the name of your college or what it says on your diploma does not predict your future. None of the people I mentioned above would let their lives be foretold by a dippy high school guidance counselor or college admissions officer, and neither should anyone else.
Friday, September 15, 2006
What's the Matter with Beverly Hills?
One of the Democrats’ biggest brouhahas about the 2004 elections (and 2002, and 2000, and maybe 2006) is that too many Midwesterners and Southerners were voting against their class interests and common sense by pulling the GOP lever. Why aren’t these people using their brains and voting for the party that would better help them?
This conundrum has truly baffled the Democratic partisans who are trying to crack the red state barrier (states are only red and blue in the electoral college, not in any other election, but that’s another blog.) Nowhere are these grapes sourer than the elite liberal enclaves of Beverly Hills, the Upper West Side, Harvard Square and similar wealthy bastions around the country where people need to look in the mirror – for they are just as badly voting against their best interests!
Think about it. Don’t these super rich, white, ultra-privileged celebrities, scholars and investor-savvy folks understand the huge tax breaks they’ve received under the Republicans? Why are they so against the war in Iraq, when there is less than a zero chance that any of their sons and daughters will volunteer to fight among the misguided soldiers from the red states? How could they be against the plans to tighten our borders when hordes of illegal aliens raise their children, mow their lawns and clean their penthouses so they can get a table at Nobu, play squash and hit the day spa?
Why, the same people wonder, do so many red staters think only of moral issues when casting their vote? Why do they rely on the Bible when there’s The New Yorker and Vanity Fair? How could they live in a backwater like Nebraska where there’s no Four Star Szechuan restaurants around the corner? Why do they head to Branson or Las Vegas for vacation when it’s quicker to fly to Paris or take the helicopter to the Hamptons? And just how can they possibly enjoy these mainstream, big budget Hollywood movies when The New York Times gave a four star review to this artsy French film on the Renaissance?
Hey, I think they’re right. If the Republicans have lost the Upper West Side, then they might lose Malibu next. Maybe a Barbra Streisand film festival at the White House could help, before it’s too late.
More info:
What's the Matter with Kansas? -- A very good, although not completely flawless, book about how the Democrats lost the blue collar, Midwestern vote to the Republicans. I goofed on its flaws with my lame jokes in this post, but you should read it anyway.
This conundrum has truly baffled the Democratic partisans who are trying to crack the red state barrier (states are only red and blue in the electoral college, not in any other election, but that’s another blog.) Nowhere are these grapes sourer than the elite liberal enclaves of Beverly Hills, the Upper West Side, Harvard Square and similar wealthy bastions around the country where people need to look in the mirror – for they are just as badly voting against their best interests!
Think about it. Don’t these super rich, white, ultra-privileged celebrities, scholars and investor-savvy folks understand the huge tax breaks they’ve received under the Republicans? Why are they so against the war in Iraq, when there is less than a zero chance that any of their sons and daughters will volunteer to fight among the misguided soldiers from the red states? How could they be against the plans to tighten our borders when hordes of illegal aliens raise their children, mow their lawns and clean their penthouses so they can get a table at Nobu, play squash and hit the day spa?
Why, the same people wonder, do so many red staters think only of moral issues when casting their vote? Why do they rely on the Bible when there’s The New Yorker and Vanity Fair? How could they live in a backwater like Nebraska where there’s no Four Star Szechuan restaurants around the corner? Why do they head to Branson or Las Vegas for vacation when it’s quicker to fly to Paris or take the helicopter to the Hamptons? And just how can they possibly enjoy these mainstream, big budget Hollywood movies when The New York Times gave a four star review to this artsy French film on the Renaissance?
Hey, I think they’re right. If the Republicans have lost the Upper West Side, then they might lose Malibu next. Maybe a Barbra Streisand film festival at the White House could help, before it’s too late.
More info:
What's the Matter with Kansas? -- A very good, although not completely flawless, book about how the Democrats lost the blue collar, Midwestern vote to the Republicans. I goofed on its flaws with my lame jokes in this post, but you should read it anyway.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
The Dumb Get Dumber
Just when you thought Harvard couldn’t sink any lower, along comes a speaking invitation to former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami, the previous “reformer” president who didn’t do much reforming. While Khatami isn’t the reactionary Holocaust denier that current Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is, he makes no apologies for backing Hezbollah, shutting down all anti-government newspapers and flagrant human rights abuses that occurred under his tenure.
It is equally sad that Harvard’s once-esteemed Kennedy School of Government scheduled Khatami to speak on September 10, the eve of the five-year anniversary of 9/11. Governor Mitt Romney was so furious that he ordered the State Police not to provide security, standard protocol for any visiting head of state. And Khatami was greeted by over 200 protesters from Harvard’s Democratic and Republican student clubs (yes, there are Republicans there), who had united in solidarity to protest both the former president and the university’s inane decision to let him speak.
Kudos to Governor Romney and also to Boston College, who rejected a visit by Khatami. After Hezbollah started the latest Middle Eastern war and helped set Lebanon back a decade in its redevelopment, inviting a man who helped terrorism prosper is stunning in both naiveté and ignorance. It would be nice to extend an invitation to the real reformers in Iran, many of whom are either imprisoned or in exile. Maybe they could teach the guys at Harvard something.
It is equally sad that Harvard’s once-esteemed Kennedy School of Government scheduled Khatami to speak on September 10, the eve of the five-year anniversary of 9/11. Governor Mitt Romney was so furious that he ordered the State Police not to provide security, standard protocol for any visiting head of state. And Khatami was greeted by over 200 protesters from Harvard’s Democratic and Republican student clubs (yes, there are Republicans there), who had united in solidarity to protest both the former president and the university’s inane decision to let him speak.
Kudos to Governor Romney and also to Boston College, who rejected a visit by Khatami. After Hezbollah started the latest Middle Eastern war and helped set Lebanon back a decade in its redevelopment, inviting a man who helped terrorism prosper is stunning in both naiveté and ignorance. It would be nice to extend an invitation to the real reformers in Iran, many of whom are either imprisoned or in exile. Maybe they could teach the guys at Harvard something.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
2006 NFL Forecast and Football Cheat Sheet
Welcome to another year of AFC domination.
As I was going through these teams, absorbing the free agency signings and draft choices one thing became clear: The AFC is a much better division. While the NFC has some very good teams, you generally see a lot of 12-4 records or 4-12 records there. The AFC has many potential juggernauts, and there are always a couple of teams that come out of nowhere to surprise you (my Dark Horse picks).
Also, Seattle didn’t lose many players and should repeat as NFC West Champions, but they could just as easily fall into the dreaded Super Bowl Loser Curse. For the last few years, the previous year’s Super Bowl loser has failed to even make the playoffs the following year. It shouldn’t happen, but would you have picked the Eagles to finish 6-10 last year?
As you can see, making these picks is like trying to guess what the price of oil will be in December. But that’s what make those office football pools so much fun.
NFC EAST
1) Washington – The NFC Beast is almost back, with three good (but not great) teams here making it tough to call a winner. Tiebreakers and unfortunate injuries will probably determine the winner. I’m going to go with Washington just over the Giants, because of Washington’s truly scary defense and a smart guy like Joe Gibbs running the show. Unfortunately, Washington has an unsettled QB situation and RB Clinton Portis’ shoulder is iffy. I hate Daniel Snyder as much as the next guy, but if the QB works out, the Skins can do it.
2) NY Giants – Wild Card Team. Solid team, but too many question marks. Will Eli Manning play the way he did in the first half or second half? Will Plaxico Burress stop dropping passes and give Tiki Barber a break? Will the secondary pick off a pass once in a while? The Giants do have a great pass rush that will keep them over .500, and if some of those questions are answered they shouldn’t miss the playoffs.
3) Dallas – Wild Card Team. Lots of people are picking Dallas as their NFC Super Bowl rep this year. I don’t buy it. Terrell Owens is a nitwit, Drew Bledsoe is iffy and RB Julius Jones is not at the same level as Portis and Barber. The defense is good, but you gotta move the ball too.
4) Philadelphia – No offensive improvement and the defense is two years older. I’m two years older as well, but I don’t have to go past a wall of 300 pounders to sack a QB for a living.
NFC NORTH
1) Chicago – Not a great team, but if you were in the same division as Detroit and Green Bay you wouldn’t have to do much to win either. Lovie Boy has a nasty defensive team and a putrid offense that is so inept Brian Griese won the QB battle.
2) Minnesota – New owner. Check. New coach (Brad Childress). Uh, OK, check. New RB (Chester Taylor?!). Uh….check, I guess. New quarterback (Brad Johnson). Check please!
3) Detroit – All hail Matt Millen, HERO OF THE STUPID. Even President Bush laughs at Millen’s idiocy and incompetence. Millen, who lost 38 more games than he’s won since becoming GM, also has a new coach, quarterback and offensive coordinator. Unfortunately a fish rots from the head. Detroit and Millen’s sub-.500 lifetime winning percentage is safe for another year.
4) Green Bay – About the time he’s been sacked for the umpteenth time around Week 10, Brett Farve will say, “You know, Jerome Bettis sure looks comfortable on that sideline.”
NFC SOUTH
1) Carolina – Last year I predicted the Panthers would go to the Super Bowl, and they made it to the NFC Championship. They better go this year since I don’t want to look dumb again. The Panthers’ only problem was their running game, which seems to be fixed with DeShaun Foster staying healthy and top draft choice DeAngelo Williams. And how cool is John Fox?
2) Tampa Bay – I don’t know. I want to like Chris Simms since I was such a big fan of his dad, but I only see the Bucs as a .500 team. There’s some good young offense with Cadillac Williams and Joey Galloway, but the defense is almost unchanged since the Super Bowl, when the entire defensive line was older than me.
3) Atlanta – The Falcons defense is OK and they had some good offseason signings. But Vick is the Josh Beckett of the NFL – too impatient and quick to run before checking his receivers. I see another .500 season.
4) New Orleans – At least this year the Saints will play a few games at home. They are still not a good team, but Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will get them up to five or six wins.
NFC WEST
1) Seattle – The Super Bowl loser curse notwithstanding, Seattle should still win their division for the same reason the Panthers and Bears should win theirs – most of the other teams suck. On paper they look good, but I don’t envision another Super Bowl appearance against Carolina or the NFC East winner. The Seahawks just seem too, I don’t know – finesse? Maybe it’s the matching pants and jerseys.
2) Arizona – My NFC dark horse team. Getting to .500 would be cause for celebration in the desert. Last year the Cardinals were weird – they had a top 10 offense and defense but finished 5-11. The good parts – a great field goal kicker in Neil Rackers, two great wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and killer defense with Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor – returns. This year, Arizona also signed Edgerrin James from the Colts and has a new stadium. QB Kurt Warner is a question mark, but USC’s Matt Lienart is on the bench.
3) St. Louis – Not having a defense will catch up to you when Mike Martz leaves. QB Marc Bulger and RB Steve Jackson are good, but no names on D will doom the Rams.
4) San Francisco – One year, all these high draft choices will pay off. Unless Matt Millen comes back.
AFC EAST
1) New England – The weakest Patriots team in five years benefits from the weakest AFC division, just like last year. This year, Tom Brady returns with no Adam Vinatieri, no Willie McGinest, no David Givens (actually, nobody at all at WR) and no Ted Johnson. On the plus side, Rodney Harrison and the entire secondary are finally healthy, new RB Laurence Maroney looks good, and when you play Buffalo and the Jets twice each year you already have four wins.
2) Miami – Wild Card Team and my AFC dark horse team. Did you notice that Miami went 2-14 in 2004, and won its last six games last year to finish 9-7? This year a healthy Daunte Culpepper is leading the Dolphins and they don’t have to deal with that basehead Ricky Williams anymore.
3) Buffalo – I can’t get excited about a team that has named J.P. Losman as their starting QB. Willis McGahee will probably wear out faster than any other RB in football.
4) NY Jets – Bleah. All the Jets good defensive players left in free agency, former coach Herman Edwards served them, and Curtis Martin is out for the first half of the year. QB Chad Pennington has talent, but goes out for a month if he has a paper cut.
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh – The champs return with most of the team intact, although Ben Roethlisberger proved he’s not as bright off the field. If he finds his helmet and stays healthy the Steelers should repeat. Fast Willie Parker can fill the Bus’ parking spot.
2) Cincinnati – Wild Card Team. I love what Marvin Lewis has done in Cincinnati, but now the roster reads like America’s Most Wanted. They should be OK if their good players stay out of jail and Carson Palmer’s knee is OK. The Bengals also must do much better on defense.
3) Baltimore – Not a bad team, but not a great one. Sounds like .500 to me. Does Ray Lewis scare anyone anymore? Will RB Jamal Lewis ever have another good year? Can Steve “Air” McNair do his magic again? Too many questions.
4) Cleveland – The Browns can’t catch a break (oops!) with their number one draft choices. They can’t settle on a QB either (the immortal Charlie Frye will start) and LeCharles Bentley, their top offensive free agent signing, went down for the season in minicamp. The defense is OK, but this is a tough division for a rebuilding team.
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis – I seem to be the only one worried about the Colts’ running game. Substituting Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai for Edgerrin James is not a lock. The Colts defense is finally solid and Peyton Manning is still great, although he’s worse than Dan Marino at winning the big one – so far. I feel like the Colts think they deserve to win the Super Bowl, but to quote Clint Eastwood, deserve’s got nothing to do with it.
2) Jacksonville – Wild Card Team. Last year I picked Jacksonville as my Dark Horse and they surprised lots of teams by going 12-4. This year they’re still good but teams are ready for them. The Jaguars’ D is frighteningly good. If QB Byron Leftwich can move the ball a bit more and RB Fred Taylor keeps pounding, the Jaguars will go far.
3) Tennessee – Still rebuilding, especially at QB. McNair left, so backup Billy Volek was named the starter. He sucked so bad in minicamp that Kerry Collins was brought it, and Texas’ Vince Young sits on the bench, waiting. But with too many defensive holes and nobody for whoever the QB is to throw to, Vince may start sooner than he expects. Just be careful what you wish for.
4) Texas – Three wins would be an improvement over last year. Houston has no RB (after they passed on Reggie Bush) and an offensive line that has led the league in sacks allowed since the team started.
AFC WEST
1) Denver – The Broncos feature their best defense in years, but the X factor is the offense. Last year QB Jake the Fake Plummer finally learned he had to throw to the guys on his own team, and Denver went 13-3. Then in the playoffs he remembered he sucked and the Steelers smacked him all over the field. RB Mike Anderson is gone, and two guys named Bell are replacing him. Thousand-yard rushers appear to grow on trees in the Rockies, but Plummer’s consistency is the test.
2) San Diego – Lots of people have ripped the Chargers a new one for letting Drew Brees go. It was a stupid move, but if Philip Rivers does OK the Chargers could go over .500. LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football and the defense is tight. Of course if Rivers blows, then they’re chumps.
3) Kansas City – Herman Edwards is a good guy with a big problem. For about 10 years, the Chiefs have had the best offense in football and have made the playoffs once. Perhaps the problem could be on the DEFENSE? What was done to improve the defense in the offseason? Oh, nothing? Then let’s move on.
4) Oakland – Now I’m not saying Kerry Collins is the best quarterback, but why would you replace him with Aaron Brooks, whose mistakes led the Saints to three wins last year? Remember Warren Sapp? He’s starting on the Raiders. Enough said.
As I was going through these teams, absorbing the free agency signings and draft choices one thing became clear: The AFC is a much better division. While the NFC has some very good teams, you generally see a lot of 12-4 records or 4-12 records there. The AFC has many potential juggernauts, and there are always a couple of teams that come out of nowhere to surprise you (my Dark Horse picks).
Also, Seattle didn’t lose many players and should repeat as NFC West Champions, but they could just as easily fall into the dreaded Super Bowl Loser Curse. For the last few years, the previous year’s Super Bowl loser has failed to even make the playoffs the following year. It shouldn’t happen, but would you have picked the Eagles to finish 6-10 last year?
As you can see, making these picks is like trying to guess what the price of oil will be in December. But that’s what make those office football pools so much fun.
NFC EAST
1) Washington – The NFC Beast is almost back, with three good (but not great) teams here making it tough to call a winner. Tiebreakers and unfortunate injuries will probably determine the winner. I’m going to go with Washington just over the Giants, because of Washington’s truly scary defense and a smart guy like Joe Gibbs running the show. Unfortunately, Washington has an unsettled QB situation and RB Clinton Portis’ shoulder is iffy. I hate Daniel Snyder as much as the next guy, but if the QB works out, the Skins can do it.
2) NY Giants – Wild Card Team. Solid team, but too many question marks. Will Eli Manning play the way he did in the first half or second half? Will Plaxico Burress stop dropping passes and give Tiki Barber a break? Will the secondary pick off a pass once in a while? The Giants do have a great pass rush that will keep them over .500, and if some of those questions are answered they shouldn’t miss the playoffs.
3) Dallas – Wild Card Team. Lots of people are picking Dallas as their NFC Super Bowl rep this year. I don’t buy it. Terrell Owens is a nitwit, Drew Bledsoe is iffy and RB Julius Jones is not at the same level as Portis and Barber. The defense is good, but you gotta move the ball too.
4) Philadelphia – No offensive improvement and the defense is two years older. I’m two years older as well, but I don’t have to go past a wall of 300 pounders to sack a QB for a living.
NFC NORTH
1) Chicago – Not a great team, but if you were in the same division as Detroit and Green Bay you wouldn’t have to do much to win either. Lovie Boy has a nasty defensive team and a putrid offense that is so inept Brian Griese won the QB battle.
2) Minnesota – New owner. Check. New coach (Brad Childress). Uh, OK, check. New RB (Chester Taylor?!). Uh….check, I guess. New quarterback (Brad Johnson). Check please!
3) Detroit – All hail Matt Millen, HERO OF THE STUPID. Even President Bush laughs at Millen’s idiocy and incompetence. Millen, who lost 38 more games than he’s won since becoming GM, also has a new coach, quarterback and offensive coordinator. Unfortunately a fish rots from the head. Detroit and Millen’s sub-.500 lifetime winning percentage is safe for another year.
4) Green Bay – About the time he’s been sacked for the umpteenth time around Week 10, Brett Farve will say, “You know, Jerome Bettis sure looks comfortable on that sideline.”
NFC SOUTH
1) Carolina – Last year I predicted the Panthers would go to the Super Bowl, and they made it to the NFC Championship. They better go this year since I don’t want to look dumb again. The Panthers’ only problem was their running game, which seems to be fixed with DeShaun Foster staying healthy and top draft choice DeAngelo Williams. And how cool is John Fox?
2) Tampa Bay – I don’t know. I want to like Chris Simms since I was such a big fan of his dad, but I only see the Bucs as a .500 team. There’s some good young offense with Cadillac Williams and Joey Galloway, but the defense is almost unchanged since the Super Bowl, when the entire defensive line was older than me.
3) Atlanta – The Falcons defense is OK and they had some good offseason signings. But Vick is the Josh Beckett of the NFL – too impatient and quick to run before checking his receivers. I see another .500 season.
4) New Orleans – At least this year the Saints will play a few games at home. They are still not a good team, but Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will get them up to five or six wins.
NFC WEST
1) Seattle – The Super Bowl loser curse notwithstanding, Seattle should still win their division for the same reason the Panthers and Bears should win theirs – most of the other teams suck. On paper they look good, but I don’t envision another Super Bowl appearance against Carolina or the NFC East winner. The Seahawks just seem too, I don’t know – finesse? Maybe it’s the matching pants and jerseys.
2) Arizona – My NFC dark horse team. Getting to .500 would be cause for celebration in the desert. Last year the Cardinals were weird – they had a top 10 offense and defense but finished 5-11. The good parts – a great field goal kicker in Neil Rackers, two great wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and killer defense with Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor – returns. This year, Arizona also signed Edgerrin James from the Colts and has a new stadium. QB Kurt Warner is a question mark, but USC’s Matt Lienart is on the bench.
3) St. Louis – Not having a defense will catch up to you when Mike Martz leaves. QB Marc Bulger and RB Steve Jackson are good, but no names on D will doom the Rams.
4) San Francisco – One year, all these high draft choices will pay off. Unless Matt Millen comes back.
AFC EAST
1) New England – The weakest Patriots team in five years benefits from the weakest AFC division, just like last year. This year, Tom Brady returns with no Adam Vinatieri, no Willie McGinest, no David Givens (actually, nobody at all at WR) and no Ted Johnson. On the plus side, Rodney Harrison and the entire secondary are finally healthy, new RB Laurence Maroney looks good, and when you play Buffalo and the Jets twice each year you already have four wins.
2) Miami – Wild Card Team and my AFC dark horse team. Did you notice that Miami went 2-14 in 2004, and won its last six games last year to finish 9-7? This year a healthy Daunte Culpepper is leading the Dolphins and they don’t have to deal with that basehead Ricky Williams anymore.
3) Buffalo – I can’t get excited about a team that has named J.P. Losman as their starting QB. Willis McGahee will probably wear out faster than any other RB in football.
4) NY Jets – Bleah. All the Jets good defensive players left in free agency, former coach Herman Edwards served them, and Curtis Martin is out for the first half of the year. QB Chad Pennington has talent, but goes out for a month if he has a paper cut.
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh – The champs return with most of the team intact, although Ben Roethlisberger proved he’s not as bright off the field. If he finds his helmet and stays healthy the Steelers should repeat. Fast Willie Parker can fill the Bus’ parking spot.
2) Cincinnati – Wild Card Team. I love what Marvin Lewis has done in Cincinnati, but now the roster reads like America’s Most Wanted. They should be OK if their good players stay out of jail and Carson Palmer’s knee is OK. The Bengals also must do much better on defense.
3) Baltimore – Not a bad team, but not a great one. Sounds like .500 to me. Does Ray Lewis scare anyone anymore? Will RB Jamal Lewis ever have another good year? Can Steve “Air” McNair do his magic again? Too many questions.
4) Cleveland – The Browns can’t catch a break (oops!) with their number one draft choices. They can’t settle on a QB either (the immortal Charlie Frye will start) and LeCharles Bentley, their top offensive free agent signing, went down for the season in minicamp. The defense is OK, but this is a tough division for a rebuilding team.
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis – I seem to be the only one worried about the Colts’ running game. Substituting Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai for Edgerrin James is not a lock. The Colts defense is finally solid and Peyton Manning is still great, although he’s worse than Dan Marino at winning the big one – so far. I feel like the Colts think they deserve to win the Super Bowl, but to quote Clint Eastwood, deserve’s got nothing to do with it.
2) Jacksonville – Wild Card Team. Last year I picked Jacksonville as my Dark Horse and they surprised lots of teams by going 12-4. This year they’re still good but teams are ready for them. The Jaguars’ D is frighteningly good. If QB Byron Leftwich can move the ball a bit more and RB Fred Taylor keeps pounding, the Jaguars will go far.
3) Tennessee – Still rebuilding, especially at QB. McNair left, so backup Billy Volek was named the starter. He sucked so bad in minicamp that Kerry Collins was brought it, and Texas’ Vince Young sits on the bench, waiting. But with too many defensive holes and nobody for whoever the QB is to throw to, Vince may start sooner than he expects. Just be careful what you wish for.
4) Texas – Three wins would be an improvement over last year. Houston has no RB (after they passed on Reggie Bush) and an offensive line that has led the league in sacks allowed since the team started.
AFC WEST
1) Denver – The Broncos feature their best defense in years, but the X factor is the offense. Last year QB Jake the Fake Plummer finally learned he had to throw to the guys on his own team, and Denver went 13-3. Then in the playoffs he remembered he sucked and the Steelers smacked him all over the field. RB Mike Anderson is gone, and two guys named Bell are replacing him. Thousand-yard rushers appear to grow on trees in the Rockies, but Plummer’s consistency is the test.
2) San Diego – Lots of people have ripped the Chargers a new one for letting Drew Brees go. It was a stupid move, but if Philip Rivers does OK the Chargers could go over .500. LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football and the defense is tight. Of course if Rivers blows, then they’re chumps.
3) Kansas City – Herman Edwards is a good guy with a big problem. For about 10 years, the Chiefs have had the best offense in football and have made the playoffs once. Perhaps the problem could be on the DEFENSE? What was done to improve the defense in the offseason? Oh, nothing? Then let’s move on.
4) Oakland – Now I’m not saying Kerry Collins is the best quarterback, but why would you replace him with Aaron Brooks, whose mistakes led the Saints to three wins last year? Remember Warren Sapp? He’s starting on the Raiders. Enough said.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
The Very Busy Blogger Returns
Hi, remember me?
It’s funny how having a full-time job, being a full-time father of two wonderful yet demanding children, working on your house and going to graduate school part time can eat away at one’s blogging schedule. I knew when I started I was going to do this part time, but I have certainly been guilty by absence.
I like writing the long essays and editorials posted here, but writing them takes a while and I don’t have the time to write these long features anymore. So I’m going to take a page from the Daily Koses and Instapundits of the world and go for shorter, and more frequent, updates.
There’s lots going on right now from national elections to a bizarre looking gubernatorial race here in Massachusetts. I don’t normally follow celebrity news, but I have become fascinated with the Britney Spears/Kevin Federline dance of the nitwits, and want to write something on that once I figure out which one is the brain behind that relationship. Click here to see these fascinating minds at work.
So I’ll post my football thoughts tomorrow, and more frequent updates in the future. I promise.
It’s funny how having a full-time job, being a full-time father of two wonderful yet demanding children, working on your house and going to graduate school part time can eat away at one’s blogging schedule. I knew when I started I was going to do this part time, but I have certainly been guilty by absence.
I like writing the long essays and editorials posted here, but writing them takes a while and I don’t have the time to write these long features anymore. So I’m going to take a page from the Daily Koses and Instapundits of the world and go for shorter, and more frequent, updates.
There’s lots going on right now from national elections to a bizarre looking gubernatorial race here in Massachusetts. I don’t normally follow celebrity news, but I have become fascinated with the Britney Spears/Kevin Federline dance of the nitwits, and want to write something on that once I figure out which one is the brain behind that relationship. Click here to see these fascinating minds at work.
So I’ll post my football thoughts tomorrow, and more frequent updates in the future. I promise.
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