2006 NFL Forecast and Football Cheat Sheet

Welcome to another year of AFC domination.

As I was going through these teams, absorbing the free agency signings and draft choices one thing became clear: The AFC is a much better division. While the NFC has some very good teams, you generally see a lot of 12-4 records or 4-12 records there. The AFC has many potential juggernauts, and there are always a couple of teams that come out of nowhere to surprise you (my Dark Horse picks).

Also, Seattle didn’t lose many players and should repeat as NFC West Champions, but they could just as easily fall into the dreaded Super Bowl Loser Curse. For the last few years, the previous year’s Super Bowl loser has failed to even make the playoffs the following year. It shouldn’t happen, but would you have picked the Eagles to finish 6-10 last year?

As you can see, making these picks is like trying to guess what the price of oil will be in December. But that’s what make those office football pools so much fun.

NFC EAST

1) Washington – The NFC Beast is almost back, with three good (but not great) teams here making it tough to call a winner. Tiebreakers and unfortunate injuries will probably determine the winner. I’m going to go with Washington just over the Giants, because of Washington’s truly scary defense and a smart guy like Joe Gibbs running the show. Unfortunately, Washington has an unsettled QB situation and RB Clinton Portis’ shoulder is iffy. I hate Daniel Snyder as much as the next guy, but if the QB works out, the Skins can do it.

2) NY Giants – Wild Card Team. Solid team, but too many question marks. Will Eli Manning play the way he did in the first half or second half? Will Plaxico Burress stop dropping passes and give Tiki Barber a break? Will the secondary pick off a pass once in a while? The Giants do have a great pass rush that will keep them over .500, and if some of those questions are answered they shouldn’t miss the playoffs.

3) Dallas – Wild Card Team. Lots of people are picking Dallas as their NFC Super Bowl rep this year. I don’t buy it. Terrell Owens is a nitwit, Drew Bledsoe is iffy and RB Julius Jones is not at the same level as Portis and Barber. The defense is good, but you gotta move the ball too.

4) Philadelphia – No offensive improvement and the defense is two years older. I’m two years older as well, but I don’t have to go past a wall of 300 pounders to sack a QB for a living.

NFC NORTH

1) Chicago – Not a great team, but if you were in the same division as Detroit and Green Bay you wouldn’t have to do much to win either. Lovie Boy has a nasty defensive team and a putrid offense that is so inept Brian Griese won the QB battle.

2) Minnesota – New owner. Check. New coach (Brad Childress). Uh, OK, check. New RB (Chester Taylor?!). Uh….check, I guess. New quarterback (Brad Johnson). Check please!

3) Detroit – All hail Matt Millen, HERO OF THE STUPID. Even President Bush laughs at Millen’s idiocy and incompetence. Millen, who lost 38 more games than he’s won since becoming GM, also has a new coach, quarterback and offensive coordinator. Unfortunately a fish rots from the head. Detroit and Millen’s sub-.500 lifetime winning percentage is safe for another year.

4) Green Bay – About the time he’s been sacked for the umpteenth time around Week 10, Brett Farve will say, “You know, Jerome Bettis sure looks comfortable on that sideline.”

NFC SOUTH

1) Carolina – Last year I predicted the Panthers would go to the Super Bowl, and they made it to the NFC Championship. They better go this year since I don’t want to look dumb again. The Panthers’ only problem was their running game, which seems to be fixed with DeShaun Foster staying healthy and top draft choice DeAngelo Williams. And how cool is John Fox?

2) Tampa Bay – I don’t know. I want to like Chris Simms since I was such a big fan of his dad, but I only see the Bucs as a .500 team. There’s some good young offense with Cadillac Williams and Joey Galloway, but the defense is almost unchanged since the Super Bowl, when the entire defensive line was older than me.

3) Atlanta – The Falcons defense is OK and they had some good offseason signings. But Vick is the Josh Beckett of the NFL – too impatient and quick to run before checking his receivers. I see another .500 season.

4) New Orleans – At least this year the Saints will play a few games at home. They are still not a good team, but Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will get them up to five or six wins.

NFC WEST

1) Seattle – The Super Bowl loser curse notwithstanding, Seattle should still win their division for the same reason the Panthers and Bears should win theirs – most of the other teams suck. On paper they look good, but I don’t envision another Super Bowl appearance against Carolina or the NFC East winner. The Seahawks just seem too, I don’t know – finesse? Maybe it’s the matching pants and jerseys.

2) Arizona – My NFC dark horse team. Getting to .500 would be cause for celebration in the desert. Last year the Cardinals were weird – they had a top 10 offense and defense but finished 5-11. The good parts – a great field goal kicker in Neil Rackers, two great wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and killer defense with Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor – returns. This year, Arizona also signed Edgerrin James from the Colts and has a new stadium. QB Kurt Warner is a question mark, but USC’s Matt Lienart is on the bench.

3) St. Louis – Not having a defense will catch up to you when Mike Martz leaves. QB Marc Bulger and RB Steve Jackson are good, but no names on D will doom the Rams.

4) San Francisco – One year, all these high draft choices will pay off. Unless Matt Millen comes back.

AFC EAST

1) New England – The weakest Patriots team in five years benefits from the weakest AFC division, just like last year. This year, Tom Brady returns with no Adam Vinatieri, no Willie McGinest, no David Givens (actually, nobody at all at WR) and no Ted Johnson. On the plus side, Rodney Harrison and the entire secondary are finally healthy, new RB Laurence Maroney looks good, and when you play Buffalo and the Jets twice each year you already have four wins.

2) Miami – Wild Card Team and my AFC dark horse team. Did you notice that Miami went 2-14 in 2004, and won its last six games last year to finish 9-7? This year a healthy Daunte Culpepper is leading the Dolphins and they don’t have to deal with that basehead Ricky Williams anymore.

3) Buffalo – I can’t get excited about a team that has named J.P. Losman as their starting QB. Willis McGahee will probably wear out faster than any other RB in football.

4) NY Jets – Bleah. All the Jets good defensive players left in free agency, former coach Herman Edwards served them, and Curtis Martin is out for the first half of the year. QB Chad Pennington has talent, but goes out for a month if he has a paper cut.

AFC NORTH

1) Pittsburgh – The champs return with most of the team intact, although Ben Roethlisberger proved he’s not as bright off the field. If he finds his helmet and stays healthy the Steelers should repeat. Fast Willie Parker can fill the Bus’ parking spot.

2) Cincinnati – Wild Card Team. I love what Marvin Lewis has done in Cincinnati, but now the roster reads like America’s Most Wanted. They should be OK if their good players stay out of jail and Carson Palmer’s knee is OK. The Bengals also must do much better on defense.

3) Baltimore – Not a bad team, but not a great one. Sounds like .500 to me. Does Ray Lewis scare anyone anymore? Will RB Jamal Lewis ever have another good year? Can Steve “Air” McNair do his magic again? Too many questions.

4) Cleveland – The Browns can’t catch a break (oops!) with their number one draft choices. They can’t settle on a QB either (the immortal Charlie Frye will start) and LeCharles Bentley, their top offensive free agent signing, went down for the season in minicamp. The defense is OK, but this is a tough division for a rebuilding team.

AFC SOUTH

1) Indianapolis – I seem to be the only one worried about the Colts’ running game. Substituting Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai for Edgerrin James is not a lock. The Colts defense is finally solid and Peyton Manning is still great, although he’s worse than Dan Marino at winning the big one – so far. I feel like the Colts think they deserve to win the Super Bowl, but to quote Clint Eastwood, deserve’s got nothing to do with it.

2) Jacksonville – Wild Card Team. Last year I picked Jacksonville as my Dark Horse and they surprised lots of teams by going 12-4. This year they’re still good but teams are ready for them. The Jaguars’ D is frighteningly good. If QB Byron Leftwich can move the ball a bit more and RB Fred Taylor keeps pounding, the Jaguars will go far.

3) Tennessee – Still rebuilding, especially at QB. McNair left, so backup Billy Volek was named the starter. He sucked so bad in minicamp that Kerry Collins was brought it, and Texas’ Vince Young sits on the bench, waiting. But with too many defensive holes and nobody for whoever the QB is to throw to, Vince may start sooner than he expects. Just be careful what you wish for.

4) Texas – Three wins would be an improvement over last year. Houston has no RB (after they passed on Reggie Bush) and an offensive line that has led the league in sacks allowed since the team started.

AFC WEST

1) Denver – The Broncos feature their best defense in years, but the X factor is the offense. Last year QB Jake the Fake Plummer finally learned he had to throw to the guys on his own team, and Denver went 13-3. Then in the playoffs he remembered he sucked and the Steelers smacked him all over the field. RB Mike Anderson is gone, and two guys named Bell are replacing him. Thousand-yard rushers appear to grow on trees in the Rockies, but Plummer’s consistency is the test.

2) San Diego – Lots of people have ripped the Chargers a new one for letting Drew Brees go. It was a stupid move, but if Philip Rivers does OK the Chargers could go over .500. LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football and the defense is tight. Of course if Rivers blows, then they’re chumps.

3) Kansas City – Herman Edwards is a good guy with a big problem. For about 10 years, the Chiefs have had the best offense in football and have made the playoffs once. Perhaps the problem could be on the DEFENSE? What was done to improve the defense in the offseason? Oh, nothing? Then let’s move on.

4) Oakland – Now I’m not saying Kerry Collins is the best quarterback, but why would you replace him with Aaron Brooks, whose mistakes led the Saints to three wins last year? Remember Warren Sapp? He’s starting on the Raiders. Enough said.