Public perception of the press tends to rise following terrible events like 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, and subsequently plummets back to its typical nadir somewhere between Al Qaeda and child molesters. Big events make the public understand the importance and necessity of the media, and answering this need helps the media rediscover its goal of informing the public. But why does the public hate the media so consistently?
I always get a chuckle whenever the media is forced to do a story on itself, especially when they’ve just been outed as scumbags in any public opinion poll. Why do a story on why people hate you? The answers lie in how the media operates and how it affects overall media credibility.
· First, most of the media is not issues-driven. It is events-driven. Reporters could do an ongoing investigation and explanation into how City Hall works, or they could cover a breaking news story on the one mid-level manager who is arrested for embezzlement. Guess which one makes the news?
· In newsrooms across America, conflict is king. An inner city neighborhood can spend years getting cleaned up and revitalized without any press mention, but if there’s a single shooting on that street once a year it makes the news and will be stigmatized thereafter. Many local newsrooms have a mantra: If it Bleeds, it Leads.
· While some journalists are excellent and knowledgeable about the topics they cover, most are as lazy as the rest of us, and don’t bother digging into a story to discover what has led to the conflicts they cover. A journalist might cover a strike, but not bother going into details or specifics on why the two sides could not work out an agreement.
· A lot of news, particularly local news, needs to be “easy” so the general population will understand it. Most newspapers and newscasts are written at a sixth grade reading level, with exceptions being well-regarded publications like The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. People tend to read newspapers quickly and stories are getting shorter in most publications as newsrooms are cut.
· Reporters should maintain objectivity. Many don’t. Some news organizations such as Fox and The New York Times barely disguise most of their coverage slanting left or right, offending independent readers no matter how good the coverage may be. There’s another side to objectivity; on news magazine shows like Dateline, reporters often go overboard to report divergent views on any topic, often interviewing extremists whose absurdity undermines the entire show. This happens every day.
· The media often acts with a mob mentality. If one reporter is covering something, the odds are good that several reporters are there too, and you can get the exact same report from any of them, although sometimes these events are truly newsworthy.
· There’s fierce competition to be the first with “breaking news” among reporters. Unfortunately, being first also means you have the least amount of time to get your facts checked, and wrong information is often reported. This happened in last year’s election when Dan Rather issued a false report about the President’s National Guard duties, which cost Rather his job. Recent reports about widespread crime in the Superdome during Hurricane Katrina were also exaggerated by the media.
If the press is at its best during times of crisis, I would say the press is at its worst when covering elections and politics. Many voters get their political information from the news, and it’s unsurprising that even blanket coverage is unable to get a majority of voters to the polls on Election Day.
· Events, Not Issues: The press rarely covers political issues because campaign events like stump speeches are visual and makes better TV. An event is usually fast and – here we go – easy to cover and report.
· The Horse Race: The media tends to cover the race on who is winning – in votes, popularity and fundraising – rather than what the candidates’ platform is or the issues that affect voters. In fact, the whole campaign gets screwed because the media has a serious addiction to poll numbers. Why? Because it’s easier to do than reporting on substance.
· Scandalmania!: When a scandal hits, all bets are off and a media feeding frenzy ensues. The media can easily and quickly destroy a candidate over an issue that most voters will find irrelevant, such as Clinton’s relationship with Monica Lewinsky or Bush’s National Guard record. Political candidates are unfairly held to higher standards because of the media’s scandal scrutiny, and I am positive many fine potential candidates have eschewed public office because of a very minor and explainable lapse in their past. The focus on scandals has also helped undermine trust in political institutions and the media in general. Reporters also routinely ask candidates personal and controversial questions they would never ask private citizens.
The media, of course, would retort that it is giving the public what it wants. And that is partly true. The media wouldn’t focus on the superficial if the public wasn’t watching it. While I’m sure the average person who reads The New York Post and tabloid-style local news would agree how vapid it is, the bottom line is that is still how they are getting their information. And while high quality media outlets exist, the people who read and view them tend to be better educated and informed than the masses who don’t. It’s a chicken and egg situation.
With the Internet and additional news sources permeating all the time, people have a wider choice than ever to get new information. If you complain about the news or hate the media, try to find alternate ways to get your information. And if you’re a member of the media, stop taking the easy and acceptable way out. People want to know more than you think, and providing that is the key to regaining trust.
More Information:
Arthur Chrenkoff’s Blog – “Good News from Iraq.” An Australian, wondering if anything good was happening in Iraq that wasn’t being reported, starts his own blog and finds remarkable progress going unmentioned in the mass media. He claims he has stopped publishing, but we’ll see. Somewhat right wing, but still has good stuff.
Frontline: Why We Hate the Media – Old (1987) and long, but interesting. Includes comments from Mike Wallace and Peter Jennings about combat reporting that will make your jaw drop.
Friday, September 30, 2005
Friday, September 16, 2005
The Era of Our Discontent
Was Katrina the straw that broke America’s back?
The first decade of our new millennium is becoming one of our country’s most turbulent – ever. We entered 2001 (the millenium’s real start) with a contested presidential election, where the Supreme Court needed to intervene and the candidate who received fewer votes ended up as the winner. Although the procedure adhered to the Constitution, many cried fraud and never recognized the president as our leader.
Then we entered into one of the steepest and deepest recessions in modern times, with millions losing their jobs. The stock market crashed and crashed again, wiping out billions in savings. Many had to defer retirement or come out of it altogether. College savings and 401Ks were decimated, and the market has yet to fully recover. Some industries like technology and marketing were utterly squashed, with once-successful companies folding overnight.
September 11 was one of the worst days in our country’s history, and ushered in terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism as the evil of our age, just as communism was for our parents and the Third Reich was for our grandparents. We had lived in relative peace without an enemy since the Berlin Wall fell. The attacks ushered in a new war for our times and fear re-entered the American psyche, where it continues to lurk. This was not a battle between soldiers on the battlefield – this was a battle with a culture of death that wants us utterly destroyed and could strike anywhere and at anytime.
Corporate malfeasance and fraud at Enron, Worldcom, HealthSouth, Adelphia, Tyco and scores of other companies brought down Fortune 100 giants. The public’s attitude toward big business changed as well – from respect to suspicion and mistrust. Corporate earnings and governance remain under a cloud and the public is almost inured to seeing corporate fines, layoffs and other mismanagement as the market remains flat.
Then we invaded Iraq. It’s your call whether this war was a necessary battle to oust the world’s worst dictator and bring democracy to the Middle East to flank our war on terror, or an oafish attempt by a misguided leader on a personal vendetta who was relying on faulty intelligence. But one thing is universally accepted: Iraq is a mess right now. Anarchy has engulfed the region and there are not enough troops to quell it. The military brass totally flubbed, if not outright ignored, how the country would be remade. There was never a Marshall Plan for Iraq and it shows. Most tragically, American troops and innocent Iraqis who want to help rebuild are dying there. The administration’s Iraq misdirection and the rising fatality list are rapidly undercutting support for the war at home.
And the last year has seen two horrific natural disasters – the tsunami in Asia that killed over 200,000 and Hurricane Katrina, which leveled and flooded the cities of New Orleans and Biloxi. Katrina once again displayed bureaucratic overlapses, as local, state and federal officials completely bungled repeated efforts to either repair levees in advance or administer aid afterward, both of which likely condemned the city and its residents. The damage to Louisiana’s refineries caused gas prices, already sky high to begin with, to record breaking heights at over $3 and $4 a gallon with no relief in sight.
When you look at the president’s paltry approval rating, consumer confidence index and the country’s overall psyche after riding through the last five years, it’s apparent we are entering a character crisis. Not an energy crisis or recession, but a crisis of confidence where American optimism is eclipsed by resentment and unease. The terrible performance by all levels of government in New Orleans could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back – a breakdown of faith in our infrastructure and overall direction of how America should be.
Unlike September 11, when our country united in strength and bipartisanship, the country now posts a sinking morale by the cumulative effects of the events described above. While some were unavoidable and some were not, how the government reacted to each one has led to a growing disgust that the government cannot protect its citizens or execute imperative needs – winning the war in Iraq, saving lives in New Orleans, getting gas prices under control and so on.
I believe we are now in the midst of one of the darker periods in our history, similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the so-called “National Malaise” of the 1970s. Like those decades, Americans are currently under a cloud of doubts about an uncertain future and the national optimism is tempered by an ugly reality and faith in the government to help or protect us. You can sense a simmering beneath a surface, like when a teakettle is about to boil and let a torrent of steam out.
I don’t think there will be mass riots and upheaval like the 1930s and 1970s, but public backlash from both eras did generate massive changes in the political system. The Great Depression brought a governmental revolution in Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal, and the counterattack of the Seventies delivered Ronald Reagan and the resulting era of conservatism. Both men were dynamic leaders who made America stronger and restored faith in the government and confidence in the American people.
It’s far too early to predict the 2006 elections, let alone 2008. But whichever party produces a candidate that delivers a whole new message of self-reliance, optimism and independence from the status quo has got a head start.
More info:
Ether Zone: Katrina and the End of Illusions -http://www.etherzone.com/2005/raim090705.shtml
Jim Lehrer – Politics After Katrina (transcript) –
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/political_wrap/july-dec05/bop_9-2.html
The first decade of our new millennium is becoming one of our country’s most turbulent – ever. We entered 2001 (the millenium’s real start) with a contested presidential election, where the Supreme Court needed to intervene and the candidate who received fewer votes ended up as the winner. Although the procedure adhered to the Constitution, many cried fraud and never recognized the president as our leader.
Then we entered into one of the steepest and deepest recessions in modern times, with millions losing their jobs. The stock market crashed and crashed again, wiping out billions in savings. Many had to defer retirement or come out of it altogether. College savings and 401Ks were decimated, and the market has yet to fully recover. Some industries like technology and marketing were utterly squashed, with once-successful companies folding overnight.
September 11 was one of the worst days in our country’s history, and ushered in terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism as the evil of our age, just as communism was for our parents and the Third Reich was for our grandparents. We had lived in relative peace without an enemy since the Berlin Wall fell. The attacks ushered in a new war for our times and fear re-entered the American psyche, where it continues to lurk. This was not a battle between soldiers on the battlefield – this was a battle with a culture of death that wants us utterly destroyed and could strike anywhere and at anytime.
Corporate malfeasance and fraud at Enron, Worldcom, HealthSouth, Adelphia, Tyco and scores of other companies brought down Fortune 100 giants. The public’s attitude toward big business changed as well – from respect to suspicion and mistrust. Corporate earnings and governance remain under a cloud and the public is almost inured to seeing corporate fines, layoffs and other mismanagement as the market remains flat.
Then we invaded Iraq. It’s your call whether this war was a necessary battle to oust the world’s worst dictator and bring democracy to the Middle East to flank our war on terror, or an oafish attempt by a misguided leader on a personal vendetta who was relying on faulty intelligence. But one thing is universally accepted: Iraq is a mess right now. Anarchy has engulfed the region and there are not enough troops to quell it. The military brass totally flubbed, if not outright ignored, how the country would be remade. There was never a Marshall Plan for Iraq and it shows. Most tragically, American troops and innocent Iraqis who want to help rebuild are dying there. The administration’s Iraq misdirection and the rising fatality list are rapidly undercutting support for the war at home.
And the last year has seen two horrific natural disasters – the tsunami in Asia that killed over 200,000 and Hurricane Katrina, which leveled and flooded the cities of New Orleans and Biloxi. Katrina once again displayed bureaucratic overlapses, as local, state and federal officials completely bungled repeated efforts to either repair levees in advance or administer aid afterward, both of which likely condemned the city and its residents. The damage to Louisiana’s refineries caused gas prices, already sky high to begin with, to record breaking heights at over $3 and $4 a gallon with no relief in sight.
When you look at the president’s paltry approval rating, consumer confidence index and the country’s overall psyche after riding through the last five years, it’s apparent we are entering a character crisis. Not an energy crisis or recession, but a crisis of confidence where American optimism is eclipsed by resentment and unease. The terrible performance by all levels of government in New Orleans could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back – a breakdown of faith in our infrastructure and overall direction of how America should be.
Unlike September 11, when our country united in strength and bipartisanship, the country now posts a sinking morale by the cumulative effects of the events described above. While some were unavoidable and some were not, how the government reacted to each one has led to a growing disgust that the government cannot protect its citizens or execute imperative needs – winning the war in Iraq, saving lives in New Orleans, getting gas prices under control and so on.
I believe we are now in the midst of one of the darker periods in our history, similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the so-called “National Malaise” of the 1970s. Like those decades, Americans are currently under a cloud of doubts about an uncertain future and the national optimism is tempered by an ugly reality and faith in the government to help or protect us. You can sense a simmering beneath a surface, like when a teakettle is about to boil and let a torrent of steam out.
I don’t think there will be mass riots and upheaval like the 1930s and 1970s, but public backlash from both eras did generate massive changes in the political system. The Great Depression brought a governmental revolution in Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal, and the counterattack of the Seventies delivered Ronald Reagan and the resulting era of conservatism. Both men were dynamic leaders who made America stronger and restored faith in the government and confidence in the American people.
It’s far too early to predict the 2006 elections, let alone 2008. But whichever party produces a candidate that delivers a whole new message of self-reliance, optimism and independence from the status quo has got a head start.
More info:
Ether Zone: Katrina and the End of Illusions -http://www.etherzone.com/2005/raim090705.shtml
Jim Lehrer – Politics After Katrina (transcript) –
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/political_wrap/july-dec05/bop_9-2.html
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
NFL Forecasts and Football Pool Cheat Sheet - 2005
Why is football the most popular sport in our great country? Let us quickly review:
1) Parity. Unlike baseball’s rich team/poor team conundrum that alienates small city fans and makes the same teams win over and over, the NFL encourages competition by ensuring every team gets the same money to spend on player salaries and from TV contracts. A level playing field means every team gets a chance to win. A team may be lousy one year and great the next year (or vice versa) but you can never blame the league or finances. It keeps the game fresh and exciting.
2) Game infrequency. Unlike the 162 games of baseball or 10-month NBA season, there are only 16 NFL games a year, excluding playoffs. Each game becomes an event, even at the collegiate and high school level in some places (rent “Friday Night Lights” to get a better idea of this).
3) Betting. Yes, unlike the confusing over/under baseball spread, it is insanely easy to bet on football. Legal and illegal football pools span across the country, and due to parity it’s possible for any team to beat another on any given Sunday.
4) Labor Happiness: Compare the NFL owners’ relationship with the NFL player union to baseball and the NHL. Everybody is happy. There hasn’t been a work stoppage in almost two decades. Regular non-sports unions that are dying on the vine should look the NFL player’s union for tips on relevance and keeping members priorities in line.
Bottom line is that the NFL is an extremely well-run and smart organization that deserves credit for making football America’s national pastime. NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue probably never played a snap in his life, but mad props to him for being a genius.
My NFL 2005 picks are below, along with my “dark horse” pick as most improved team from last year. Picks are in the order of finish.
NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles: Last year I predicted Terrell Owens would be an unselfish team player as much as I trusted OJ to search for the real killer, or words to that effect. Turns out I was only off by a year. Philly will benefit from being the only good team in this division, and expect T.O. to be trade bait in the offseason, if not earlier.
2) Dallas Cowboys: Is it me or is Parcells just not angry anymore? A mellow Parcells means a mellow football team. Dallas has a good running game with Julius Jones, but the defense needs to step up and be, well, angrier.
3) NY Giants: The Giants missed the memo that most NFL franchise QBs are developed, not drafted first (see: Brady, Tom, Theisman, Joe and Montana, Joe). Even successful first-round choice QBs do not always lead their teams to Super Bowls (see: Manning, Peyton and Vick, Mike) or victories (see: Bledsoe, Drew). So the Giants’ season rides completely on the arm of one person. They could be 10-6 or 3-13. I’ll split the difference at 7-9. The Giants also must do much better defending against the run.
4) Washington Redskins: Think Joe Gibbs wishes he was back in the NASCAR pit? At least he can always blame Most-Hated NFL Owner Dan Snyder, who puts the coal into the reverse Midas touch.
NFC NORTH
1) Minnesota Vikings: Addition by subtraction. Take away talented but petulant WR Randy Moss and watch a good team get better without distractions. Plenty of WRs (Nate Burelson and Troy Williamson) left for Culpepper to throw to, and a good defense helps top another weak division.
2) Green Bay Packers: I like Brett Farve – hey, everyone likes Brett Farve – but this is the least talented team he’s fronted since coming to the Bay. The team didn’t do much to improve the spotty defense and the offense is getting older for Farve’s probable last season. If it is, watch for Green Bay to plummet in 2006.
3) Detroit Lions: GM Matt Millen makes the head of FEMA look like a genius. In four years as GM, his Lions have yet to post a winning record, have won three road games and have one of the league’s worst defenses. So after drafting nothing but a QB and several WRs for the last few drafts what does he do this year? He drafts ANOTHER RECEIVER, meaning underachieving QB Joey Harrington now has four starting receivers, including three number one draft choices and another second round choice. Millen wouldn’t even last a week as a federal employee. He’s lucky Chicago is in the same division.
4) Chicago Bears: This team still has no idea who the starting QB will be this Sunday, but it’s looking to rookie Kyle Orton, with 35-year-old Jeff Blake backing him up. Shemp Howard is available if Blake falters, which should happen by the sixth game. Talk about the Bad News Bears.
NFC SOUTH
1) Carolina Panthers: Last year I picked the Panthers to win the division. By the second game, their six best players on offense and defense (especially Julius Peppers, Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Kris Jenkins, etc.) got injured and the team fell to 1-7. Halfway through the season, they started coming back and the Panthers finished 7-9. If everyone stays healthy, this is the team to beat in the NFC. Carolina also made some great free agent pickups on the offensive line and cornerback, and now start the two CBs who led the league in pickoffs. Look out!
2) Atlanta Falcons: Wild Card Team. Call me nuts (go ahead, you can) but I think Atlanta overachieved last year. Vick’s health is always iffy and he still lacks a big-time receiver to throw at. The Falcons also have a rough schedule, with games against Philadelphia, New England and the Jets in the first month. If they come out of that at 2-2 or better, they’re the real deal.
3) New Orleans Saints: Rough times ahead. The Saints burn me every year because they look so good on paper but choke when the game is on the line. Now they have a crisis at home and may have to play 16 road games. While the offense can put up points, the D is not as tight in the no-longer Big Easy.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Take your QB choice – Brian Griese, Brad Johnson or Chris Simms, who has played one game and promptly got injured. While you’ve got to like a RB named Cadillac Williams, the offensive line is stacked with Hyundais. Are there any leaders here?
NFC WEST
1) Arizona Cardinals: My NFC Dark Horse Team. Last year great coach Denny Green came to the desert and doubled the team’s win total. OK, it was from 3 to 6 games, but the Cardinals no longer officially sucked. The team has also drafted extremely well and has a great defense with Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor. The big question is starting QB Kurt Warner, who is certainly past his prime but showed signs of life in NY last year. But Green has brought in veteran QBs before in Minnesota – remember Randall Cunningham and Jeff George? – and all produced for him.
2) St. Louis Rams: Wild Card Team. The Rams seem to have their groove back on offense with new RB Steven Jackson, and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are still there. St. Louis played well enough to make it to the playoffs last year with a shoddy defense, and their free agent pickups (Dexter Coakley!) won’t make them worse.
3) Seattle Seahawks: Last year was Seattle’s golden opportunity and they blew it. Seattle’s receivers drop more passes than I do in pickup games. They tried to improve their toast defense by drafting Lofa Tatupu. Guess whose kid he is?
4) San Francisco 49ers: The good news is that everybody has written off this team as the NFL’s worst this year and has given them a free pass to next year’s first round choice. The bad news is that the team and its fans have to suffer through 16 games to get there.
AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots: Well duh. Have the Jets or Bills built up enough to dethrone the champs? Nope. Tom Brady will never start on anyone’s fantasy team, but would you want anyone else as your real starter? Of course not. That said, I don’t see the Patriots as a juggernaut this year. There’s a new defensive coordinator and Belichik will be the de facto offensive coordinator, and toughman LBs Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson are gone. But the Patriots should still win 10 or 11. Interesting fact: No team has EVER won three Super Bowls in a row. The 49ers, Cowboys and Steelers won four or five, but not consecutively. Hmmmm.
2) NY Jets: Wild Card Team. Similar to their Meadowlands roommates, the Jets’ season will rise or fall based on their starting QB. There have been special team upgrades and Ty Law and Lavarneaus Coles are interesting pickups. They may even best the Patriots at one of their meetings as long as Curtis Martin keeps outrunning Father Time.
3) Buffalo Bills: The Bills are not a bad team, but they’re in a punishing division and won’t go higher than 9-7. Buffalo also axed Bledsoe in favor of rookie J.P. Losman, who costs a lot less but has only thrown five passes in his career. Good defense and pretty good running game, but not enough to win the AFC East.
4) Miami Dolphins: Last year Miami was the best bad team in football, which is about the same as being the smartest bum in the gutter. It says something when the most talented guy on the team is the head coach. Saban needs a QB as good as his LSU players before the Fins are ready to compete.
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers: Did anyone guess Ben what’s-his-name would win 15 last year? Of course not. Will he win 15 this year? Nope. Teams are ready for him now provided they do what the Patriots did in the playoffs – break down The Bus and force him to make mistakes. Since the AFC North isn’t football’s premier division, that won’t happen too often. Pittsburgh does boast a tough defense and my favorite RB with Jerome Bettis, still plowing through lines at 37.
2) Baltimore Ravens: Another solid team that just didn’t make enough improvements in the off season. QB Kyle Boller is OK – not great and not bad. Definitely not good enough to get them past the wild card if they make it that far. RB Jamal Lewis is out of jail but has a gimpy ankle. The defense is still money, but Ray Lewis is starting to coast on his reputation and isn’t the threat he once was.
3) Cincinnati Bengals: I’d love to rate the Bengals higher as they’ve finished at 8-8 the last two years, have a good QB in Carson Palmer and a good coach with Marvin Lewis. But to win those extra two or three games you’ve gotta up the defense and there wasn’t enough done in the offseason to improve here. They might get to 9-7 and even second in the division, but that’s all – for now.
4) Cleveland Browns: Best of luck to new coach Romeo Crennel, a longtime Bill Parcells and Bill Belichik sidekick who finally gets the chance to run his own team. Unfortunately it’s the Cleveland Browns. This is his mulligan year.
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis Colts: Why can’t the talented Colts win the big one? Here’s my theory. Head coach Tony Dungy is really smart and a nice guy. QB Peyton Manning is really smart and a nice guy. That’s why. This team needs more killer instinct – more Dick Butkuses. The Colts need the eye of the tiger! When a finesse offensive team (Colts) meets a smashmouth defensive team (Patriots), the defensive team almost always wins. The offense won’t always score enough if the nice guys are getting their asses kicked by the bigger boys.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Wild Card Team. The Jaguars were my sleeper pick last year and they got to 9-7 by beating the Colts twice. Not many people know about them but they have a truly scary defense and a great QB in Byron Leftwich. He needs better WRs and RB Fred Taylor’s knee is iffy, but there’s no excuse for this team if they can’t make the wild card.
3) Houston Texans: By the time any coach is in his fifth year, he should have his team in the playoffs, expansion team or no expansion team. Dom Capers has got the Texans to .500 but that’s it. No secondary and no offensive line will hurt Houston. QB David Carr is pretty good but won’t win many games if he spends the whole time in the backfield running for his life.
4) Tennessee Titans: The unfortunate part of parity is that every seven or eight years, a team must cut a bunch of players loose to meet the salary cap, and the program goes under water for a year or two. This is what is happening to the Titans this year. I love QB Steve “Air” McNair who always plays tough, but this is what the P.C. police would call a “rebuilding year.”
AFC WEST
1) San Diego: Last year I said the Chargers couldn’t win at kickball. They responded by going 11-5, but trust me, they still couldn’t win at kickball. The guys who made me look dumb were QB Drew Brees (finally, a San Diego first round QB comes through!), LaDanian Tomlinson, the best RB in football, and defensive coach/guru Wade Phillips who turned the once-crappy defense into a 3-4 wall. They could be better on pass rushing, but the Chargers should have enough to make the playoffs again.
2) Kansas City Chiefs: A really weird team. They have an offensive powerhouse with QB Trent Green and RB Priest Holmes who can put up 40 points a game, and a Swiss Cheese defense that can give up 45 points a game. They actually made some steps to improve the defense this offseason, drafting Derrick Johnson and signing Patrick Surtain and Sammy Knight. If it all clicks, they could go far. If it doesn’t, Dick Vermeil can challenge Richard Simmons to a crybaby contest.
3) Oakland Raiders: My AFC Dark Horse Team. The Raiders won’t make the playoffs and might not make .500, but they only won five games last year and will upset some better teams. QB Kerry Collins has a howitzer in his arm, and he now has Randy Moss and Jerry Porter to throw at. RB Lamont Jordan ran for 1500 yards last year. And the defense…well, let’s just say they’re a “mature” bunch that should keep them from winning more than eight. Randy Moss and Al Davis certainly deserve each other. The whole team is so crazy it just might work.
4) Denver Broncos: For years, I refused to jump on the Jake Plummer bandwagon. I believe I have finally been vindicated, as Jake The Fake is still doing all the stupid things he used to do in Arizona. And while Denver keeps finding unknown RBs to rush for 1500 yards each year, what were they thinking signing Ron Dayne and Maurice Clarett? Denver isn’t a bad team and may even finish above Oakland, but this is a tough division and there’s no way they’re making the playoffs this year.
1) Parity. Unlike baseball’s rich team/poor team conundrum that alienates small city fans and makes the same teams win over and over, the NFL encourages competition by ensuring every team gets the same money to spend on player salaries and from TV contracts. A level playing field means every team gets a chance to win. A team may be lousy one year and great the next year (or vice versa) but you can never blame the league or finances. It keeps the game fresh and exciting.
2) Game infrequency. Unlike the 162 games of baseball or 10-month NBA season, there are only 16 NFL games a year, excluding playoffs. Each game becomes an event, even at the collegiate and high school level in some places (rent “Friday Night Lights” to get a better idea of this).
3) Betting. Yes, unlike the confusing over/under baseball spread, it is insanely easy to bet on football. Legal and illegal football pools span across the country, and due to parity it’s possible for any team to beat another on any given Sunday.
4) Labor Happiness: Compare the NFL owners’ relationship with the NFL player union to baseball and the NHL. Everybody is happy. There hasn’t been a work stoppage in almost two decades. Regular non-sports unions that are dying on the vine should look the NFL player’s union for tips on relevance and keeping members priorities in line.
Bottom line is that the NFL is an extremely well-run and smart organization that deserves credit for making football America’s national pastime. NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue probably never played a snap in his life, but mad props to him for being a genius.
My NFL 2005 picks are below, along with my “dark horse” pick as most improved team from last year. Picks are in the order of finish.
NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia Eagles: Last year I predicted Terrell Owens would be an unselfish team player as much as I trusted OJ to search for the real killer, or words to that effect. Turns out I was only off by a year. Philly will benefit from being the only good team in this division, and expect T.O. to be trade bait in the offseason, if not earlier.
2) Dallas Cowboys: Is it me or is Parcells just not angry anymore? A mellow Parcells means a mellow football team. Dallas has a good running game with Julius Jones, but the defense needs to step up and be, well, angrier.
3) NY Giants: The Giants missed the memo that most NFL franchise QBs are developed, not drafted first (see: Brady, Tom, Theisman, Joe and Montana, Joe). Even successful first-round choice QBs do not always lead their teams to Super Bowls (see: Manning, Peyton and Vick, Mike) or victories (see: Bledsoe, Drew). So the Giants’ season rides completely on the arm of one person. They could be 10-6 or 3-13. I’ll split the difference at 7-9. The Giants also must do much better defending against the run.
4) Washington Redskins: Think Joe Gibbs wishes he was back in the NASCAR pit? At least he can always blame Most-Hated NFL Owner Dan Snyder, who puts the coal into the reverse Midas touch.
NFC NORTH
1) Minnesota Vikings: Addition by subtraction. Take away talented but petulant WR Randy Moss and watch a good team get better without distractions. Plenty of WRs (Nate Burelson and Troy Williamson) left for Culpepper to throw to, and a good defense helps top another weak division.
2) Green Bay Packers: I like Brett Farve – hey, everyone likes Brett Farve – but this is the least talented team he’s fronted since coming to the Bay. The team didn’t do much to improve the spotty defense and the offense is getting older for Farve’s probable last season. If it is, watch for Green Bay to plummet in 2006.
3) Detroit Lions: GM Matt Millen makes the head of FEMA look like a genius. In four years as GM, his Lions have yet to post a winning record, have won three road games and have one of the league’s worst defenses. So after drafting nothing but a QB and several WRs for the last few drafts what does he do this year? He drafts ANOTHER RECEIVER, meaning underachieving QB Joey Harrington now has four starting receivers, including three number one draft choices and another second round choice. Millen wouldn’t even last a week as a federal employee. He’s lucky Chicago is in the same division.
4) Chicago Bears: This team still has no idea who the starting QB will be this Sunday, but it’s looking to rookie Kyle Orton, with 35-year-old Jeff Blake backing him up. Shemp Howard is available if Blake falters, which should happen by the sixth game. Talk about the Bad News Bears.
NFC SOUTH
1) Carolina Panthers: Last year I picked the Panthers to win the division. By the second game, their six best players on offense and defense (especially Julius Peppers, Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Kris Jenkins, etc.) got injured and the team fell to 1-7. Halfway through the season, they started coming back and the Panthers finished 7-9. If everyone stays healthy, this is the team to beat in the NFC. Carolina also made some great free agent pickups on the offensive line and cornerback, and now start the two CBs who led the league in pickoffs. Look out!
2) Atlanta Falcons: Wild Card Team. Call me nuts (go ahead, you can) but I think Atlanta overachieved last year. Vick’s health is always iffy and he still lacks a big-time receiver to throw at. The Falcons also have a rough schedule, with games against Philadelphia, New England and the Jets in the first month. If they come out of that at 2-2 or better, they’re the real deal.
3) New Orleans Saints: Rough times ahead. The Saints burn me every year because they look so good on paper but choke when the game is on the line. Now they have a crisis at home and may have to play 16 road games. While the offense can put up points, the D is not as tight in the no-longer Big Easy.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Take your QB choice – Brian Griese, Brad Johnson or Chris Simms, who has played one game and promptly got injured. While you’ve got to like a RB named Cadillac Williams, the offensive line is stacked with Hyundais. Are there any leaders here?
NFC WEST
1) Arizona Cardinals: My NFC Dark Horse Team. Last year great coach Denny Green came to the desert and doubled the team’s win total. OK, it was from 3 to 6 games, but the Cardinals no longer officially sucked. The team has also drafted extremely well and has a great defense with Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor. The big question is starting QB Kurt Warner, who is certainly past his prime but showed signs of life in NY last year. But Green has brought in veteran QBs before in Minnesota – remember Randall Cunningham and Jeff George? – and all produced for him.
2) St. Louis Rams: Wild Card Team. The Rams seem to have their groove back on offense with new RB Steven Jackson, and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are still there. St. Louis played well enough to make it to the playoffs last year with a shoddy defense, and their free agent pickups (Dexter Coakley!) won’t make them worse.
3) Seattle Seahawks: Last year was Seattle’s golden opportunity and they blew it. Seattle’s receivers drop more passes than I do in pickup games. They tried to improve their toast defense by drafting Lofa Tatupu. Guess whose kid he is?
4) San Francisco 49ers: The good news is that everybody has written off this team as the NFL’s worst this year and has given them a free pass to next year’s first round choice. The bad news is that the team and its fans have to suffer through 16 games to get there.
AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots: Well duh. Have the Jets or Bills built up enough to dethrone the champs? Nope. Tom Brady will never start on anyone’s fantasy team, but would you want anyone else as your real starter? Of course not. That said, I don’t see the Patriots as a juggernaut this year. There’s a new defensive coordinator and Belichik will be the de facto offensive coordinator, and toughman LBs Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson are gone. But the Patriots should still win 10 or 11. Interesting fact: No team has EVER won three Super Bowls in a row. The 49ers, Cowboys and Steelers won four or five, but not consecutively. Hmmmm.
2) NY Jets: Wild Card Team. Similar to their Meadowlands roommates, the Jets’ season will rise or fall based on their starting QB. There have been special team upgrades and Ty Law and Lavarneaus Coles are interesting pickups. They may even best the Patriots at one of their meetings as long as Curtis Martin keeps outrunning Father Time.
3) Buffalo Bills: The Bills are not a bad team, but they’re in a punishing division and won’t go higher than 9-7. Buffalo also axed Bledsoe in favor of rookie J.P. Losman, who costs a lot less but has only thrown five passes in his career. Good defense and pretty good running game, but not enough to win the AFC East.
4) Miami Dolphins: Last year Miami was the best bad team in football, which is about the same as being the smartest bum in the gutter. It says something when the most talented guy on the team is the head coach. Saban needs a QB as good as his LSU players before the Fins are ready to compete.
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers: Did anyone guess Ben what’s-his-name would win 15 last year? Of course not. Will he win 15 this year? Nope. Teams are ready for him now provided they do what the Patriots did in the playoffs – break down The Bus and force him to make mistakes. Since the AFC North isn’t football’s premier division, that won’t happen too often. Pittsburgh does boast a tough defense and my favorite RB with Jerome Bettis, still plowing through lines at 37.
2) Baltimore Ravens: Another solid team that just didn’t make enough improvements in the off season. QB Kyle Boller is OK – not great and not bad. Definitely not good enough to get them past the wild card if they make it that far. RB Jamal Lewis is out of jail but has a gimpy ankle. The defense is still money, but Ray Lewis is starting to coast on his reputation and isn’t the threat he once was.
3) Cincinnati Bengals: I’d love to rate the Bengals higher as they’ve finished at 8-8 the last two years, have a good QB in Carson Palmer and a good coach with Marvin Lewis. But to win those extra two or three games you’ve gotta up the defense and there wasn’t enough done in the offseason to improve here. They might get to 9-7 and even second in the division, but that’s all – for now.
4) Cleveland Browns: Best of luck to new coach Romeo Crennel, a longtime Bill Parcells and Bill Belichik sidekick who finally gets the chance to run his own team. Unfortunately it’s the Cleveland Browns. This is his mulligan year.
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis Colts: Why can’t the talented Colts win the big one? Here’s my theory. Head coach Tony Dungy is really smart and a nice guy. QB Peyton Manning is really smart and a nice guy. That’s why. This team needs more killer instinct – more Dick Butkuses. The Colts need the eye of the tiger! When a finesse offensive team (Colts) meets a smashmouth defensive team (Patriots), the defensive team almost always wins. The offense won’t always score enough if the nice guys are getting their asses kicked by the bigger boys.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Wild Card Team. The Jaguars were my sleeper pick last year and they got to 9-7 by beating the Colts twice. Not many people know about them but they have a truly scary defense and a great QB in Byron Leftwich. He needs better WRs and RB Fred Taylor’s knee is iffy, but there’s no excuse for this team if they can’t make the wild card.
3) Houston Texans: By the time any coach is in his fifth year, he should have his team in the playoffs, expansion team or no expansion team. Dom Capers has got the Texans to .500 but that’s it. No secondary and no offensive line will hurt Houston. QB David Carr is pretty good but won’t win many games if he spends the whole time in the backfield running for his life.
4) Tennessee Titans: The unfortunate part of parity is that every seven or eight years, a team must cut a bunch of players loose to meet the salary cap, and the program goes under water for a year or two. This is what is happening to the Titans this year. I love QB Steve “Air” McNair who always plays tough, but this is what the P.C. police would call a “rebuilding year.”
AFC WEST
1) San Diego: Last year I said the Chargers couldn’t win at kickball. They responded by going 11-5, but trust me, they still couldn’t win at kickball. The guys who made me look dumb were QB Drew Brees (finally, a San Diego first round QB comes through!), LaDanian Tomlinson, the best RB in football, and defensive coach/guru Wade Phillips who turned the once-crappy defense into a 3-4 wall. They could be better on pass rushing, but the Chargers should have enough to make the playoffs again.
2) Kansas City Chiefs: A really weird team. They have an offensive powerhouse with QB Trent Green and RB Priest Holmes who can put up 40 points a game, and a Swiss Cheese defense that can give up 45 points a game. They actually made some steps to improve the defense this offseason, drafting Derrick Johnson and signing Patrick Surtain and Sammy Knight. If it all clicks, they could go far. If it doesn’t, Dick Vermeil can challenge Richard Simmons to a crybaby contest.
3) Oakland Raiders: My AFC Dark Horse Team. The Raiders won’t make the playoffs and might not make .500, but they only won five games last year and will upset some better teams. QB Kerry Collins has a howitzer in his arm, and he now has Randy Moss and Jerry Porter to throw at. RB Lamont Jordan ran for 1500 yards last year. And the defense…well, let’s just say they’re a “mature” bunch that should keep them from winning more than eight. Randy Moss and Al Davis certainly deserve each other. The whole team is so crazy it just might work.
4) Denver Broncos: For years, I refused to jump on the Jake Plummer bandwagon. I believe I have finally been vindicated, as Jake The Fake is still doing all the stupid things he used to do in Arizona. And while Denver keeps finding unknown RBs to rush for 1500 yards each year, what were they thinking signing Ron Dayne and Maurice Clarett? Denver isn’t a bad team and may even finish above Oakland, but this is a tough division and there’s no way they’re making the playoffs this year.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
Taking Natural Disasters Personally
Disasters – natural and man-made – have a habit of bringing out the best and worst of everyone. Most of the time, it tends to be the former. Donations and condolences are pouring into the Gulf Coast, and I have complete confidence that the cities of New Orleans and Biloxi will be rebuilt. New Orleans is one of my favorite cities. My wife and I traveled there about five years ago and fell in love with the cuisine, the music and some of the friendliest Americans we’ve ever encountered. Everyone called us “honey,” the drinks were great and we still plan on returning some day.
And for bringing out the worst in people? Looters, gas price gougers and insurance scam artists are well known and have earned their special place in jail, if not hell itself. But while most of the world is looking to help and heal, political partisans seize the opportunity to promote and exploit their own interests by demonizing anyone who disagrees with them and absurdly linking their opponents to disasters. The attacks are so loopy and illogical they should be hilarious, but the virulence of the accusers wipes the smiles from our faces. Sadly, these attacks happen all too often and help destroy any bipartisan efforts. It’s also disconcerting and a huge turn-off to independents like myself.
Newt Gingrich ended his political career by blaming a hideous murder of a pregnant mother and the kidnapping of her unborn child on the welfare state, and then ended his hari-kari by urging everyone “to vote Republican.” Long before he helped re-elect the president, Michael Moore said the 9/11 terrorists erred by killing people who didn’t vote for George W. Bush. And today, with entire Louisiana and Mississippi towns and cities washed away, we have another hateful group of partisans rising from sewers and mudholes to advance their causes at the expense of victims, and trying to plant a political reason upon a natural disaster. Here’s the worst I’ve seen so far, but don’t worry – there will be more:
· Huffington Post: Nobody outside of California had even heard of Ariana Huffington before she ran for governor of California two years ago (and dropped out of the race after mustering a whopping 2% support). But her web site is well-known and somewhere to the left of Cuba. One of her bloggers says the Republicans have left all of us “raped, pillaged and terrorized” and says the president scares her more than terrorists. Another blogger claims that the hurricane would not have been so devastating if Carter had beat Reagan in 1980. And Ms. Huffington herself excoriates the president for not being in New Orleans already, somehow overlooking that the N.O.P.D. may be busy with things like saving lives and stopping looters to stop what they’re doing and provide a security detail for the president. Keep in mind that unlike me, many of the bloggers here consider themselves professional writers.
· Religious Right: When evangelicals and some so-called people of God aren’t hating homosexuals, advocating assassinations and claiming that life on earth began 6,000 years ago, they’re telling the rest of us how to live our lives. They’re also claiming New Orleans deserves what it got because of the city’s penchant for decadence. RepentAmerica.com says “This act of God destroyed a wicked city. From 'Girls Gone Wild' to 'Southern Decadence', New Orleans was a city that had its doors wide open to the public celebration of sin.” Another web site called Abominations (I can’t tell whether this one is a joke or not) says “Due to the hand of God the (Labor Day Weekend Gay Parade) in New Orleans and "May this act of God cause us all to think about what we tolerate in our city limits, and bring us trembling before the throne of Almighty God."
Nice, huh? There are also a bunch of people blaming the president and his environmental policies for the hurricane, just like they did for the tsunami last year. These are undoubtedly the same people who blamed Theodore Roosevelt for the San Francisco earthquake and President Chester Alan Arthur for the 1883 Krakatoa eruption. Most of these people are so partisan they can’t think straight and believe Republicans are the source of natural disasters, the boogeyman in the closet and the common cold.
Global warming is also being tossed around a bit. The jury’s obviously still out on global warming (I invite anyone who thinks the planet is getting warmer to spend the winter in Boston, where we had over 100 inches of snow last year and had to keep our heat on until Memorial Day). I’ve met a few meteorologists and climatologists who said it is absolutely natural for weather to be cyclical, even in 20- and 50-year cycles, but I don’t even pretend to be well-informed on this subject. Nobody can definitively say whether global warming exists or, if it does, whether it exacerbated the situation.
While sane people focus on how to help the victims of this tragedy, there are three items that I may revisit in this space, because each brings up important non-partisan issues.
1) Did federal budget cuts curtail improvement on New Orleans levee protection and improvement? Yes, you can read it here. Would this have stopped or cut down on the flooding? That’s another definite maybe, but whoever ordered those budget cuts has something to answer for.
2) New Orleans is a largely African-American city. In a cruel twist of fate, the upper class (and mostly white) French Quarter and Garden District have been spared the worst of the damage, while poorer, minority neighborhoods have been obliterated. It will be very interesting to see which neighborhoods are rebuilt first and where FEMA, relief and cleanup dollars go. How quickly, efficiently and fairly New Orleans is remade and how displaced refugees are compensated for their losses will speak volumes about how far this Southern city has come in race relations, political cronyism and civics.
3) Despite being the most generous nation on earth, the U.S. has been called “stingy” in its foreign and disaster relief efforts. This is nonsense. Last year, the U.S. gave over $1 billion to tsunami relief (and billions more in private donations) and spent an additional $19 billion in foreign aid, which included over $1 billion in loan write-offs to corrupt countries like the Democratic Republic for the Congo that squander the money. While the U.S. may not require foreign and disaster aid from abroad the way the Asian countries did, it will be very interesting to see how much foreign aid helps the poor people of New Orleans from foreign countries and individuals who said we do not enough for the world.
More info:
American Red Cross Hurricane Relief Donations
Salvation Army Hurrican Relief Donations
And for bringing out the worst in people? Looters, gas price gougers and insurance scam artists are well known and have earned their special place in jail, if not hell itself. But while most of the world is looking to help and heal, political partisans seize the opportunity to promote and exploit their own interests by demonizing anyone who disagrees with them and absurdly linking their opponents to disasters. The attacks are so loopy and illogical they should be hilarious, but the virulence of the accusers wipes the smiles from our faces. Sadly, these attacks happen all too often and help destroy any bipartisan efforts. It’s also disconcerting and a huge turn-off to independents like myself.
Newt Gingrich ended his political career by blaming a hideous murder of a pregnant mother and the kidnapping of her unborn child on the welfare state, and then ended his hari-kari by urging everyone “to vote Republican.” Long before he helped re-elect the president, Michael Moore said the 9/11 terrorists erred by killing people who didn’t vote for George W. Bush. And today, with entire Louisiana and Mississippi towns and cities washed away, we have another hateful group of partisans rising from sewers and mudholes to advance their causes at the expense of victims, and trying to plant a political reason upon a natural disaster. Here’s the worst I’ve seen so far, but don’t worry – there will be more:
· Huffington Post: Nobody outside of California had even heard of Ariana Huffington before she ran for governor of California two years ago (and dropped out of the race after mustering a whopping 2% support). But her web site is well-known and somewhere to the left of Cuba. One of her bloggers says the Republicans have left all of us “raped, pillaged and terrorized” and says the president scares her more than terrorists. Another blogger claims that the hurricane would not have been so devastating if Carter had beat Reagan in 1980. And Ms. Huffington herself excoriates the president for not being in New Orleans already, somehow overlooking that the N.O.P.D. may be busy with things like saving lives and stopping looters to stop what they’re doing and provide a security detail for the president. Keep in mind that unlike me, many of the bloggers here consider themselves professional writers.
· Religious Right: When evangelicals and some so-called people of God aren’t hating homosexuals, advocating assassinations and claiming that life on earth began 6,000 years ago, they’re telling the rest of us how to live our lives. They’re also claiming New Orleans deserves what it got because of the city’s penchant for decadence. RepentAmerica.com says “This act of God destroyed a wicked city. From 'Girls Gone Wild' to 'Southern Decadence', New Orleans was a city that had its doors wide open to the public celebration of sin.” Another web site called Abominations (I can’t tell whether this one is a joke or not) says “Due to the hand of God the (Labor Day Weekend Gay Parade) in New Orleans and "May this act of God cause us all to think about what we tolerate in our city limits, and bring us trembling before the throne of Almighty God."
Nice, huh? There are also a bunch of people blaming the president and his environmental policies for the hurricane, just like they did for the tsunami last year. These are undoubtedly the same people who blamed Theodore Roosevelt for the San Francisco earthquake and President Chester Alan Arthur for the 1883 Krakatoa eruption. Most of these people are so partisan they can’t think straight and believe Republicans are the source of natural disasters, the boogeyman in the closet and the common cold.
Global warming is also being tossed around a bit. The jury’s obviously still out on global warming (I invite anyone who thinks the planet is getting warmer to spend the winter in Boston, where we had over 100 inches of snow last year and had to keep our heat on until Memorial Day). I’ve met a few meteorologists and climatologists who said it is absolutely natural for weather to be cyclical, even in 20- and 50-year cycles, but I don’t even pretend to be well-informed on this subject. Nobody can definitively say whether global warming exists or, if it does, whether it exacerbated the situation.
While sane people focus on how to help the victims of this tragedy, there are three items that I may revisit in this space, because each brings up important non-partisan issues.
1) Did federal budget cuts curtail improvement on New Orleans levee protection and improvement? Yes, you can read it here. Would this have stopped or cut down on the flooding? That’s another definite maybe, but whoever ordered those budget cuts has something to answer for.
2) New Orleans is a largely African-American city. In a cruel twist of fate, the upper class (and mostly white) French Quarter and Garden District have been spared the worst of the damage, while poorer, minority neighborhoods have been obliterated. It will be very interesting to see which neighborhoods are rebuilt first and where FEMA, relief and cleanup dollars go. How quickly, efficiently and fairly New Orleans is remade and how displaced refugees are compensated for their losses will speak volumes about how far this Southern city has come in race relations, political cronyism and civics.
3) Despite being the most generous nation on earth, the U.S. has been called “stingy” in its foreign and disaster relief efforts. This is nonsense. Last year, the U.S. gave over $1 billion to tsunami relief (and billions more in private donations) and spent an additional $19 billion in foreign aid, which included over $1 billion in loan write-offs to corrupt countries like the Democratic Republic for the Congo that squander the money. While the U.S. may not require foreign and disaster aid from abroad the way the Asian countries did, it will be very interesting to see how much foreign aid helps the poor people of New Orleans from foreign countries and individuals who said we do not enough for the world.
More info:
American Red Cross Hurricane Relief Donations
Salvation Army Hurrican Relief Donations
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