NFL Forecasts and Football Pool Cheat Sheet - 2005

Why is football the most popular sport in our great country? Let us quickly review:

1) Parity. Unlike baseball’s rich team/poor team conundrum that alienates small city fans and makes the same teams win over and over, the NFL encourages competition by ensuring every team gets the same money to spend on player salaries and from TV contracts. A level playing field means every team gets a chance to win. A team may be lousy one year and great the next year (or vice versa) but you can never blame the league or finances. It keeps the game fresh and exciting.

2) Game infrequency. Unlike the 162 games of baseball or 10-month NBA season, there are only 16 NFL games a year, excluding playoffs. Each game becomes an event, even at the collegiate and high school level in some places (rent “Friday Night Lights” to get a better idea of this).

3) Betting. Yes, unlike the confusing over/under baseball spread, it is insanely easy to bet on football. Legal and illegal football pools span across the country, and due to parity it’s possible for any team to beat another on any given Sunday.

4) Labor Happiness: Compare the NFL owners’ relationship with the NFL player union to baseball and the NHL. Everybody is happy. There hasn’t been a work stoppage in almost two decades. Regular non-sports unions that are dying on the vine should look the NFL player’s union for tips on relevance and keeping members priorities in line.

Bottom line is that the NFL is an extremely well-run and smart organization that deserves credit for making football America’s national pastime. NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue probably never played a snap in his life, but mad props to him for being a genius.

My NFL 2005 picks are below, along with my “dark horse” pick as most improved team from last year. Picks are in the order of finish.

NFC EAST

1) Philadelphia Eagles: Last year I predicted Terrell Owens would be an unselfish team player as much as I trusted OJ to search for the real killer, or words to that effect. Turns out I was only off by a year. Philly will benefit from being the only good team in this division, and expect T.O. to be trade bait in the offseason, if not earlier.

2) Dallas Cowboys: Is it me or is Parcells just not angry anymore? A mellow Parcells means a mellow football team. Dallas has a good running game with Julius Jones, but the defense needs to step up and be, well, angrier.

3) NY Giants: The Giants missed the memo that most NFL franchise QBs are developed, not drafted first (see: Brady, Tom, Theisman, Joe and Montana, Joe). Even successful first-round choice QBs do not always lead their teams to Super Bowls (see: Manning, Peyton and Vick, Mike) or victories (see: Bledsoe, Drew). So the Giants’ season rides completely on the arm of one person. They could be 10-6 or 3-13. I’ll split the difference at 7-9. The Giants also must do much better defending against the run.

4) Washington Redskins: Think Joe Gibbs wishes he was back in the NASCAR pit? At least he can always blame Most-Hated NFL Owner Dan Snyder, who puts the coal into the reverse Midas touch.

NFC NORTH

1) Minnesota Vikings: Addition by subtraction. Take away talented but petulant WR Randy Moss and watch a good team get better without distractions. Plenty of WRs (Nate Burelson and Troy Williamson) left for Culpepper to throw to, and a good defense helps top another weak division.

2) Green Bay Packers: I like Brett Farve – hey, everyone likes Brett Farve – but this is the least talented team he’s fronted since coming to the Bay. The team didn’t do much to improve the spotty defense and the offense is getting older for Farve’s probable last season. If it is, watch for Green Bay to plummet in 2006.

3) Detroit Lions: GM Matt Millen makes the head of FEMA look like a genius. In four years as GM, his Lions have yet to post a winning record, have won three road games and have one of the league’s worst defenses. So after drafting nothing but a QB and several WRs for the last few drafts what does he do this year? He drafts ANOTHER RECEIVER, meaning underachieving QB Joey Harrington now has four starting receivers, including three number one draft choices and another second round choice. Millen wouldn’t even last a week as a federal employee. He’s lucky Chicago is in the same division.

4) Chicago Bears: This team still has no idea who the starting QB will be this Sunday, but it’s looking to rookie Kyle Orton, with 35-year-old Jeff Blake backing him up. Shemp Howard is available if Blake falters, which should happen by the sixth game. Talk about the Bad News Bears.

NFC SOUTH

1) Carolina Panthers: Last year I picked the Panthers to win the division. By the second game, their six best players on offense and defense (especially Julius Peppers, Steve Smith, Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Kris Jenkins, etc.) got injured and the team fell to 1-7. Halfway through the season, they started coming back and the Panthers finished 7-9. If everyone stays healthy, this is the team to beat in the NFC. Carolina also made some great free agent pickups on the offensive line and cornerback, and now start the two CBs who led the league in pickoffs. Look out!

2) Atlanta Falcons: Wild Card Team. Call me nuts (go ahead, you can) but I think Atlanta overachieved last year. Vick’s health is always iffy and he still lacks a big-time receiver to throw at. The Falcons also have a rough schedule, with games against Philadelphia, New England and the Jets in the first month. If they come out of that at 2-2 or better, they’re the real deal.

3) New Orleans Saints: Rough times ahead. The Saints burn me every year because they look so good on paper but choke when the game is on the line. Now they have a crisis at home and may have to play 16 road games. While the offense can put up points, the D is not as tight in the no-longer Big Easy.

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Take your QB choice – Brian Griese, Brad Johnson or Chris Simms, who has played one game and promptly got injured. While you’ve got to like a RB named Cadillac Williams, the offensive line is stacked with Hyundais. Are there any leaders here?

NFC WEST

1) Arizona Cardinals: My NFC Dark Horse Team. Last year great coach Denny Green came to the desert and doubled the team’s win total. OK, it was from 3 to 6 games, but the Cardinals no longer officially sucked. The team has also drafted extremely well and has a great defense with Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor. The big question is starting QB Kurt Warner, who is certainly past his prime but showed signs of life in NY last year. But Green has brought in veteran QBs before in Minnesota – remember Randall Cunningham and Jeff George? – and all produced for him.

2) St. Louis Rams: Wild Card Team. The Rams seem to have their groove back on offense with new RB Steven Jackson, and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are still there. St. Louis played well enough to make it to the playoffs last year with a shoddy defense, and their free agent pickups (Dexter Coakley!) won’t make them worse.

3) Seattle Seahawks: Last year was Seattle’s golden opportunity and they blew it. Seattle’s receivers drop more passes than I do in pickup games. They tried to improve their toast defense by drafting Lofa Tatupu. Guess whose kid he is?

4) San Francisco 49ers: The good news is that everybody has written off this team as the NFL’s worst this year and has given them a free pass to next year’s first round choice. The bad news is that the team and its fans have to suffer through 16 games to get there.

AFC EAST

1) New England Patriots: Well duh. Have the Jets or Bills built up enough to dethrone the champs? Nope. Tom Brady will never start on anyone’s fantasy team, but would you want anyone else as your real starter? Of course not. That said, I don’t see the Patriots as a juggernaut this year. There’s a new defensive coordinator and Belichik will be the de facto offensive coordinator, and toughman LBs Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson are gone. But the Patriots should still win 10 or 11. Interesting fact: No team has EVER won three Super Bowls in a row. The 49ers, Cowboys and Steelers won four or five, but not consecutively. Hmmmm.

2) NY Jets: Wild Card Team. Similar to their Meadowlands roommates, the Jets’ season will rise or fall based on their starting QB. There have been special team upgrades and Ty Law and Lavarneaus Coles are interesting pickups. They may even best the Patriots at one of their meetings as long as Curtis Martin keeps outrunning Father Time.

3) Buffalo Bills: The Bills are not a bad team, but they’re in a punishing division and won’t go higher than 9-7. Buffalo also axed Bledsoe in favor of rookie J.P. Losman, who costs a lot less but has only thrown five passes in his career. Good defense and pretty good running game, but not enough to win the AFC East.

4) Miami Dolphins: Last year Miami was the best bad team in football, which is about the same as being the smartest bum in the gutter. It says something when the most talented guy on the team is the head coach. Saban needs a QB as good as his LSU players before the Fins are ready to compete.

AFC NORTH

1) Pittsburgh Steelers: Did anyone guess Ben what’s-his-name would win 15 last year? Of course not. Will he win 15 this year? Nope. Teams are ready for him now provided they do what the Patriots did in the playoffs – break down The Bus and force him to make mistakes. Since the AFC North isn’t football’s premier division, that won’t happen too often. Pittsburgh does boast a tough defense and my favorite RB with Jerome Bettis, still plowing through lines at 37.

2) Baltimore Ravens: Another solid team that just didn’t make enough improvements in the off season. QB Kyle Boller is OK – not great and not bad. Definitely not good enough to get them past the wild card if they make it that far. RB Jamal Lewis is out of jail but has a gimpy ankle. The defense is still money, but Ray Lewis is starting to coast on his reputation and isn’t the threat he once was.

3) Cincinnati Bengals: I’d love to rate the Bengals higher as they’ve finished at 8-8 the last two years, have a good QB in Carson Palmer and a good coach with Marvin Lewis. But to win those extra two or three games you’ve gotta up the defense and there wasn’t enough done in the offseason to improve here. They might get to 9-7 and even second in the division, but that’s all – for now.

4) Cleveland Browns: Best of luck to new coach Romeo Crennel, a longtime Bill Parcells and Bill Belichik sidekick who finally gets the chance to run his own team. Unfortunately it’s the Cleveland Browns. This is his mulligan year.

AFC SOUTH

1) Indianapolis Colts: Why can’t the talented Colts win the big one? Here’s my theory. Head coach Tony Dungy is really smart and a nice guy. QB Peyton Manning is really smart and a nice guy. That’s why. This team needs more killer instinct – more Dick Butkuses. The Colts need the eye of the tiger! When a finesse offensive team (Colts) meets a smashmouth defensive team (Patriots), the defensive team almost always wins. The offense won’t always score enough if the nice guys are getting their asses kicked by the bigger boys.

2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Wild Card Team. The Jaguars were my sleeper pick last year and they got to 9-7 by beating the Colts twice. Not many people know about them but they have a truly scary defense and a great QB in Byron Leftwich. He needs better WRs and RB Fred Taylor’s knee is iffy, but there’s no excuse for this team if they can’t make the wild card.

3) Houston Texans: By the time any coach is in his fifth year, he should have his team in the playoffs, expansion team or no expansion team. Dom Capers has got the Texans to .500 but that’s it. No secondary and no offensive line will hurt Houston. QB David Carr is pretty good but won’t win many games if he spends the whole time in the backfield running for his life.

4) Tennessee Titans: The unfortunate part of parity is that every seven or eight years, a team must cut a bunch of players loose to meet the salary cap, and the program goes under water for a year or two. This is what is happening to the Titans this year. I love QB Steve “Air” McNair who always plays tough, but this is what the P.C. police would call a “rebuilding year.”

AFC WEST

1) San Diego: Last year I said the Chargers couldn’t win at kickball. They responded by going 11-5, but trust me, they still couldn’t win at kickball. The guys who made me look dumb were QB Drew Brees (finally, a San Diego first round QB comes through!), LaDanian Tomlinson, the best RB in football, and defensive coach/guru Wade Phillips who turned the once-crappy defense into a 3-4 wall. They could be better on pass rushing, but the Chargers should have enough to make the playoffs again.

2) Kansas City Chiefs: A really weird team. They have an offensive powerhouse with QB Trent Green and RB Priest Holmes who can put up 40 points a game, and a Swiss Cheese defense that can give up 45 points a game. They actually made some steps to improve the defense this offseason, drafting Derrick Johnson and signing Patrick Surtain and Sammy Knight. If it all clicks, they could go far. If it doesn’t, Dick Vermeil can challenge Richard Simmons to a crybaby contest.

3) Oakland Raiders: My AFC Dark Horse Team. The Raiders won’t make the playoffs and might not make .500, but they only won five games last year and will upset some better teams. QB Kerry Collins has a howitzer in his arm, and he now has Randy Moss and Jerry Porter to throw at. RB Lamont Jordan ran for 1500 yards last year. And the defense…well, let’s just say they’re a “mature” bunch that should keep them from winning more than eight. Randy Moss and Al Davis certainly deserve each other. The whole team is so crazy it just might work.

4) Denver Broncos: For years, I refused to jump on the Jake Plummer bandwagon. I believe I have finally been vindicated, as Jake The Fake is still doing all the stupid things he used to do in Arizona. And while Denver keeps finding unknown RBs to rush for 1500 yards each year, what were they thinking signing Ron Dayne and Maurice Clarett? Denver isn’t a bad team and may even finish above Oakland, but this is a tough division and there’s no way they’re making the playoffs this year.