This looks like another great football season. In the AFC you have the Patriots, the Colts, the Ravens, the Chargers, the Broncos, the Jaguars and a couple of surprises as top-notch teams and Super Bowl contenders. In the NFC you have the Saints and, uh, well, maybe the Bears and, uuuuhhhhhhh…I guess the Eagles are OK if McNabb stays healthy. Errr…did I mention the Saints already?
It’s not easy making picks when free agency and salary caps give every team a fighting chance. It’s even tougher when you look at the super-talented AFC North (except Cleveland) and the talent-challenged NFC South (except New Orleans) and try to determine who’s going to be on top in 17 weeks. But that’s what makes the NFL so great and the office pools so maddening.
Here goes nothing, including my playoff picks along with two Dark Horses for surprising and most improved teams in each conference (that would have been the Saints last year, if I knew what I was doing).
NFC EAST
1) Philadelphia – If McNabb stays healthy, the Eagles are a lock. What is not a lock is McNabb staying healthy. Some good additions (Takeo Spikes) and weird subtractions (Jeremiah Trotter) should shore up the defense as well.
2) Dallas – Wild Card Team. If the Eagles falter, nothing should stop Dallas from taking the division as well. Tony Romo was the spark Dallas needed last year, and new coach Wade Phillips can only improve a porous defense. In the AFC, Dallas would be lucky to go .500, but in the NFC they’re a shoo-in for the wild card.
3) NY Giants – Boy Eli has talent but lacks his brother’s accuracy and eye of the tiger. Tiki Barber’s retirement will put even more pressure on Eli, and the Giants’ horrendous secondary will squash their third consecutive playoff bid.
4) Washington – I see flashes of hope with QB Jason Campbell, but the Redskins’ defense has toast written all over it. Somewhere, Darrell Green weeps. But everyone will see Joe Gibbs weeping soon.
NFC NORTH
1) Chicago – This division is so putrid that the Bears’ practice squad could tap dance all over it. The 2007 Bears’ defense isn’t as good as the Ravens, but it’s not half bad either. Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher and Tommie Harris are rocks. The big question is QB Rex Grossman. He stunk last year, but the NFC competition was so bad it wasn’t a factor. Will he get past the Saints and Eagles this year?
2) Green Bay – Brett Farve’s last hurrah. The Packers surprised everyone last year by going 8-8, but management did nothing to improve the team and lead RB Ahman Green left town. The Packers should get 7 or 8 wins with a decent defense, and that will be more than enough to contend in the NFC North.
3) Detroit – Here’s my annual shoutout to GM Matt Millen, HERO OF THE STUPID. Since hiring Millen, Detroit has gone 24-72. He has drafted three receivers in the last four years with the first pick, two of whom are warming the bench. Guess what he did this year? He drafted ANOTHER RECEIVER! Perhaps he could have paid attention to the offensive line, which will not keep QB John Kitna off injured reserve, or the defense that has been consistently among the league’s worst? As long as Millen has a job, your employment future is gonna be OK.
4) Minnesota – Battling Detroit for the basement will be the once-mighty Vikings, who will be led by mighty QB Tavaris Jackson. The starting RB is a rookie. I can’t name anyone on defense. That just about wraps up the team.
NFC SOUTH
1) New Orleans – Goodbye Aints! Believe it – the Saints are the best team in the NFC. Last year new coach Sean Payton, QB Drew Brees and RBs Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister led the best offense in football. And, in a brilliant move, New Orleans spent its free agency money on defense, signing a new secondary including CB Jason David from the Colts. Defensive ends Charles Grant and Will Smith are angry and hungry. There may just be a new NFC Super Bowl representative this year.
2) Carolina – The challenge with the rest of the NFC North is deciding which team sucks least. I’ll take the Panthers who, despite WR Steve Smith, have a pretty lame offense. The defense is reliable but apart from Julius Peppers lacks big names and is getting near my age. It won’t be hard to go .500 in the NFC South, but the Panthers won’t do much better than that.
3) Tampa Bay – Were you asked to try out for QB in Tampa this summer? The Bucs will start with four quarterbacks, with Jeff Garcia throwing to, uh, somebody. Cadillac Williams tailed off last year, and long-starting DE Simeon Rice was cut after failing his physical.
4) Atlanta – The good news is Michael Vick won’t be a distraction. The bad news is Joey Harrington is the new starting quarterback. Things kind of go downhill from there.
NFC WEST
1) Seattle – I’m less sure about this pick than any other. Seattle seems good, as long as QB Tim Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander stay healthy and the defense is decent, but I don’t sense a passion or urgency behind them. Even if I’m wrong, they lack the talent to get past Chicago or New Orleans if they make the playoffs.
2) San Francisco – Wild Card and my NFC Dark Horse. When you’re as bad as the 49ers are for a long time, you accumulate a lot of high draft choices. Unless your team is run by Matt Millen, eventually this should make you good. San Francisco now has enough talent accumulated to make a run at the Wild Card. Last year they went 7-9 and QB Alex Smith and RB Frank Gore showed improvement. This year they spent money like drunken sailors on free agency and signed four good defensive starters (including LB Tully Banta-Cain and CB Nate Clements) and had two first round picks. Next year they could be really good, but this year they should be good enough.
3) St. Louis – I love RB Steven Jackson (who put Marshall Faulk on the bench) and QB Mark Bulger, and acknowledge the Rams are an offensive machine. But there wasn’t much upgrade to the defense, which is last against the run. Unless there’s a lot of 35-31 victories, they’re stuck at .500 again.
4) Arizona – I’m getting tired of being burned by these guys. On paper they’re great and have good players but fall apart at game time. If they ever get an offensive line I’ll take another look.
AFC EAST
1) New England – Well, duh. Not sure what made the Patriots change their character image, but Randy Moss should be well-behaved for most of the year. But the real steal was LB Adalius Thomas who anchored the Ravens’ mighty defense. The absences of CB Rodney Harrison and DE extraordinaire Richard Seymour might make the first month tough, but the Patriots bench is mighty deep and they will be sitting on top by the end of the year.
2) NY Jets – Last year’s Cinderella becomes this year’s wannabes. The Jets have a better rushing game with Thomas Jones and two good WRs with Jerricho Cotchery and Lavarneus Coles and two new defensive draft picks will contribute, but it’s gonna take more than that to knock the Pats off their perch. Also, will QB Chad Pennington stay healthy all season?
3) Buffalo – I am slowly gaining respect for QB JP Losman, but losing the best three defensive players in free agency (London Fletcher, Nate Clements and Takeo Spikes) won’t help stop the run anytime soon. Looks like the Bills remain stalled at 7-9.
4) Miami – New coach Cam Cameron has his work cut out for him trying to make a Swiss Cheese offensive line protect 37-year-old QB Trent Green, who has never been especially mobile. Anyone know who’s starting at RB?
AFC NORTH
1) Baltimore – The Ravens played better than I thought last year as the defense was banging and QB Steve “Air” McNair proved he still had gas in the tank. The Ravens’ D-line is the NFL’s best, their secondary is the league’s best and the LBs are at least the second-best. If RB Willis McGahee does what he used to do in Buffalo, the Ravens will take off.
2) Cincinnati – I never thought that Marvin Lewis, the original architect of the Ravens defense, would run a team that played so loosy goosey on defense. Nobody doubts Lewis, QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Johnson and the TE whose name I’m not even going to try and spell. But what’s with the defense? You’re never going to beat the Patriots and Colts without some upgrades there.
3) Pittsburgh – I’m sure new coach Mike Tomlin will be here for a while, and he’ll need a year or two to get Pittsburgh set straight. Pittsburgh is not a bad team but made too many mistakes (Roethlisberger had 23 interceptions last year). CB Troy Polamalu is still my man.
4) Cleveland – The Browns finally got the QB they wanted and their top draft picks got through the preseason without ending on IR. There’s too many gaps on defense and the Browns will probably win around six games, but this could be next year’s dark horse.
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis – Well, duh take II. No Super Jinx here as the Colts should have no trouble repeating as division champs. Peyton, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are the best throwing/receiving team in the NFL. But trouble may lurk as the Colts lost six starters to free agency or injury so far, none more telling than LT Tarik Glenn. A second-year player will now be protecting Peyton’s blind side. Look out!
2) Jacksonville – Wild Card Team and my AFC Dark Horse. I’m taking a chance here, like coach Jack Del Rio is taking by dumping Byron Leftwich for David Garrard. If Garrard works out, he’s the last piece in the puzzle as Jacksonville has a ferocious defense and a great RB in Maurice Jones-Drew. The receivers are iffy, but a good QB is all that’s holding this team back from greatness.
3) Tennessee – QB Vince Young was exciting last year but he can’t do it all, especially when the team lost its starting RB and both starting WRs to free agency and its best defensive player was Pacman Jones.
4) Houston – Dumping David Carr and signing QB Matt Schaub and RB Ahman Green were good steps. The defense has potential but is young. The Texans are still in a holding pattern.
AFC WEST
1) San Diego – Many people are anointing the Chargers as the next Super Bowl champs. I have two words for you – Norv Turner. This guy is the Matt Millen of head coaches, with a 58-82-1 record despite inheriting teams with great talent. It would be tough to mess up San Diego with names like Philip Rivers, LaDanian Tomlinson, Shawn Merriman and Antonio Gates, but I’m fully confident Norv can do it right around playoff time. San Diego also has a truly punishing schedule.
2) Denver – Wild Card Team. Now that Jake the Fake Plummer has been banished again, Jay Cutler will get a chance to shine. Should he do so, the Broncos will do well. Good signings like CB Dre Bly (a killer secondary combo with Champ Bailey), TE Daniel Graham and RB Travis Henry should bring normalcy back to Mile High again, where the Broncos were oddly 4-4 last year.
3) Kansas City – The Chiefs made the playoffs last year but will stay home in 2008. Running the show will QB Damon Huard, who will make way for rookie Brodie Croyle, who will have a very long season.
4) Oakland – The Raiders actually have a good defense and I toyed with making them my Dark Horse team because they could double their win total from last year. But that would still make them 4-12. Note to Al Davis: If you take the top pick in the draft and name him the future of your franchise, try to have him signed by Opening Day.
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)