Play Ball! 2005 Baseball Forecast Part I

I love baseball and I love capitalism. But the two mix together like two cats in a sack.

When the Patriots won the Super Bowl, I briefly mentioned how financial parity – notably a salary cap on player payrolls and equal TV profit sharing between all 32 teams – has brought joy and hope to NFL fans everywhere. Because of parity, every NFL team has a chance to sign the same players and small market teams like Green Bay are on the same footing as big market teams like New York. Free agent players can sign with the team that offers them the best financial package (if they wish) but careful bookkeeping will assure owners that no player eats too much of the salary cap. With each club having equal share of the pot, every team has a chance of making the playoffs each year, and worst-to-first scenarios happen every year.

Not so in Major League Baseball. While there is a luxury tax in place for teams with sky-high payrolls that are supposed to be allocated to other teams, baseball is a case of haves and have-nots. If you support a team like New York, Boston, Anaheim or another team that has deep pockets from local TV contracts and other revenue sources, your team has a chance. But if you like Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay or a similar team, you’re out of luck. There is no way your team will ever compete in an environment where richer teams – almost all in larger cities – have the resources to sign the best players and you don’t. And when you’re watching games that take place in Pittsburgh, Detroit and other cellar dwellers, nobody is at the game. Fans won’t come out to see a bad team, and owners won’t raise their payroll because they’re not getting cash from ticket sales, concession stands and TV ratings. It’s a vicious Catch-22.

MLB has reaped what it has sown. When I was a kid, baseball was the most popular televised sport. Now it is the fourth most popular, behind the NFL, NASCAR and basketball. Yes, people would rather watch cars drive in a circle for three hours than watch baseball. But if you live in Pittsburgh, your team stinks and ALWAYS WILL STINK, unless a rich owner buys the team or MLB changes its payroll disparity. The former will happen long before the latter.

Every year I make baseball picks because I like baseball and it’s fun. To be honest, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Every year, there’s almost no change in the final standings. Last year a book called “Moneyball” came out about the small-market, low payroll Oakland A’s, who always managed to field a competitive team thanks to their great General Manager Billy Beane. While Beane is a smart guy with a good eye for talent, I won’t subscribe to his philosophy until one of those teams wins the World Series. And last year Oakland lost their two star pitchers because they couldn’t afford them, and probably won’t make the playoffs this year because the Anaheim Angels are outspending them on player salaries.

I haven’t even talked about steroids, but baseball will ultimately weather that scandal while a few players go down in flames. The lack of a salary cap and huge financial disparity between teams is a much more serious issue that will only exacerbate in the coming years.

I’ll have my annual baseball predictions tomorrow, but here’s some information to chew on:

Largest Team Payroll: New York Yankees – $204 Million

Smallest Team Payroll: Milwaukee Brewers – $27 million

Why Baseball Teams are Facing a Big League Payroll Debt

Complete 2004 Team Payroll and Player Salaries