Random Musings on the Presidential Field

I’ve purposely resisted saying anything about the 2008 election yet because, like most of America, I don’t have the intestinal fortitude to remotely ponder it yet with any clear thought. But with the media, in all its ADD-glory, anointing Michael Bloomberg our next leader before a single vote has been cast I feel I must bloviate.

So here are some scattergun thoughts:

· Michael Bloomberg is a smart guy who may make a good Independent candidate. He will not be president. No Independent candidate – from Teddy Roosevelt to John Anderson to Ross Perot to Ralph Nader to whoever comes next – has been president nor will ever be president. The two parties are far too ensconced in our political culture and provide far too much money and organizational support to let an Independent get in the way. I’m actually a big fan of third party candidates and while they can succeed on a local level with the right candidate, a national race is way too vast for a candidate without a party to manage.
· Don’t be fooled by Bloomberg’s war chest. Steve Forbes and Ross Perot had just as much cash. In fact, people who donate money to a candidate are far more likely to volunteer, fundraise or promote him or her to other people in order to make their investment work out. The candidate with the most money generally does win, but it’s not a sure thing.
· States are tripping over each other to have the first primary. Unfortunately, New Hampshire isn’t giving up its prize and the New Hampshire Constitution states it must have the first primary in the nation. And if that means New Hampshire has its primary in December 2007, then that’s what it will have. If all the other states line up behind it, we’ll have our nominees by Valentine’s Day (if not earlier).
· Love her or hate her, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. She is the establishment candidate and the Democratic establishment candidate always wins. Obama has a nice RFK/Gary Hart in 1984 buzz about him, but Clinton will do whatever possible to sabotage his candidacy. The notoriously unreliable early polls have Clinton first or a close second in many states, but each one has uniformly given her whoppingly high negative and unfavorable numbers. Could the Democrats damn the torpedoes and choose a candidate that is completely unappealing to large numbers of independent voters? Well gosh, I truly have no idea.
· The GOP race is more up in the air, but my gut tells me Mitt Romney is running for the VP slot. Here’s what I think of Romney, and if I had more time for the blog I would link to some sites like this one you’ve seen.