Democratic Reality Check

With all the hype and excitement surrounding Obama, the time is overdue for a Democratic reality check.

Even the most partisan, die-hard Democrat can admit in hindsight the party has a stunning ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Already I can see overconfident Democrats and the media buzzing with the excitement of election inevitability, no matter who is nominated. Sorry, but it IS the candidate, stupid. With most Americans either independent, unenrolled or apathetic, the candidate with the most appeal to the masses (buttressed by the proper language and image) and charisma tends to win. It’s like running for student body president – popularity and messaging trumps issues. The smartest person doesn’t deserve to win, nor the richest (although money helps). "Deserve" has nothing to do with it.

So with that in mind, let’s review the two Democrats left standing. Obama had a huge fundraising month in January with $32 million raised, while Clinton raised $16 million and just lent herself $5 million to keep up. Fundraising is a terrific gauge and measure of popular support. Obama originated and continues to run on a message of change and hope, while Hillary also began using the “hope” message when the polls said it was what voters wanted. Hillary also brought the ugly factors of race and gender into the campaign (she alternates between using her gender as an excuse to vote for her and a liability when she’s being attacked), using her aides, allies and husband as attack dogs. Bill Clinton – remember how admired he used to be? – has made snide comments deriding Obama’s grade-school desire to be president, comparing his South Carolina victory to Jesse Jackson and lied about his own comments on Iraq. He has brought irreparable damage to his reputation and his wife’s campaign in the process, and is now back on the sidelines.

Obama, meanwhile, has dominated the recent rounds of debates. He has huge crowds in Idaho -- Idaho! He is the darling of the media, which skew leftward and help frame so much of the debate. His favorable ratings eclipse Hillary’s by a longshot, especially among the undecideds in places like Ohio and Florida that decide the election. He has become a hero among Generation Y and those old enough to vote in their first election (although whether they end up voting is an open question). In short, he is certainly the person best qualified to represent the party if the Democrats want to win the White House.

Now look at Super Tuesday’s results. Obama won more states by larger majorities that tend to be red – Kansas, Colorado, Georgia and Alaska. Clinton won the states that are largely blue, including Massachusetts, New Jersey and California. It’s still a close race. But when you look at the delegate and superdelegate count Clinton is winning, especially among the Democratic base (who Rove calls the “beer drinkers” and who the media ignores). And these are the people who vote in primaries. There is still an excellent chance she will be the nominee, and have zero shot against McCain because he won the same states as Obama and polls well with the same people who would vote for Obama.

Does Obama deserve to win? It doesn’t matter; “deserve” has nothing to do with it. This is the Democratic Party. This is the party that still had no identity until Obama supplied it with one. This is the party that has nominated vapid candidates like Dukakis, Mondale, Gore and Kerry. This is the party that lost to George W. Bush – twice. This is the party that may nominate someone who 40% of the population said they will never, ever vote for.

Have the Democrats forgotten that both Clintons have too much scandal and dirty laundry surrounding them? Have they realized that much of the country has neither forgotten nor will ever forgive the Clintons for some of their actions in the White House? Do they see that the GOP is on its knees and they have the new JFK and RFK fighting the party’s own base, establishment and former president for the nomination? Will they notice that despite the candidate’s unabashed liberalism, he has huge appeal to Republicans and Independents alike, almost all of whom will never vote for Hillary?

If Obama doesn’t win the nomination – especially with the huge fundraising and favorability advantages he has – because the Democratic base and establishment don’t want him, they deserve more than to lose in November. They deserve to lose all the new converts to the party. They deserve to lose the excitement and passion that Obama has gift-wrapped for them. They deserve another four years of wandering in the wilderness. I don’t know if it will happen. But based on the Democrats’ history and their recent candidates, I can’t say I’ll be surprised if it does.

UPDATE: It's always nice when someone as smart as Nicholas Kristof backs you up.