Friday, April 18, 2008

Great for Democracy, Doom for the Democrats


Are you sick of the Democratic primary? Does your formerly high opinion of Bill Clinton keep sinking? Don’t worry you’re not alone. While the media focuses on flag lapels and the horse race, the key factors that are better indicators of popular support – fundraising and likeability – tell the better story.

Here’s the latest tabulation from the Washington Post. Head down to question four, and notice the whopping unfavorable numbers for Hillary AND Bill Clinton. Hillary’s are unsurprising, as her unfavorable rating has never been below 40%. Bill Clinton, a president I used to hold in high regard, has now hit 51% unfavorable. Both Clintons are faring worse the longer the campaign drags on.

This long primary is good for our overall democracy. It is horrible for the Democratic Party. There are two possibilities left. The first is Hillary Clinton will be the nominee and Democrats will once again have nominated a terrible candidate that is disliked by most of the country, and all the new voters and energy Obama has brought to the Party completely dissipates. Americans obviously will not vote for someone they don’t like. You can call the race over right there.

The other possibility is Hillary refuses to fall on her sword and fights and scratches all the way to the convention. The gulf between the candidates and their supporters grow wider. Some delegates refuse to support Obama if he becomes the candidate, and many supporters refuse to unite and help their Party’s candidate win. Superdelegates meet behind closed doors to determine the final outcome. It could get worse before the smoke clears out of that room.

In some twisted sense, I admire Hillary’s determination and refusal to quit. But she’s not running for sixth grade president here. The damage she’s done to both herself and her husband’s legacy is enormous. Her campaign has been horribly managed from Day One. She’s never met an unverified rumor or public opinion poll finding she didn’t try to co-opt or plagiarize. And worst of all if you’re a Democrat, she is very capable of pulling a Carrie White and destroying the whole party if she doesn’t get what she thinks she deserves.

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