Perish This Thought...

In the winter of 2007 I was discussing “Profiles in Courage” with a political science professor. We were batting around potential future candidates in case anyone writes a sequel, and I decided to swing for the fences. I asked him to suppose, just suppose, that Iraq settles down, violence subsides, and the country truly becomes a bastion of democracy in the Middle East, acting as a hedge against Iran and establishes itself as a stalwart U.S. ally. If that happened, could George W. Bush become a future “profile in courage?” A politician in the same realm as Sam Houston, Thomas Hart Benton and Edmund Ross – men who took actions that were correct but so unpopular their careers ended, and it took decades for people to finally recognize them for their dignity and valor?

The professor thought for a good minute and finally said yes. Yes, that would establish him as a potential candidate for Profiles in Courage (the sequel). But he thought the chances of it happening were the same as a meteor crashing through the roof in the next five minutes. I agreed with him on both counts.

But look at Iraq today. The peace is fragile but holding. Bush and company made far, far too many mistakes and lost too many lives to get to where they are today, but all the things he envisioned Iraq becoming now don’t seem too far fetched anymore, except for those pesky weapons of mass destruction thing.

Some would say Iraq’s progress is less about Bush and more about General Petraeus successfully executing “the surge” and they have a point. It could be that it unfortunately took four years for Bush to find the right general to execute his mission. It took Lincoln a while to find his right general as well.

When presidents leave office, they often go through a period where they are intensely unpopular for a few years, then extremely popular until a few years after their death. It takes at least 25 years after that for history to finally determine what kind of president they really were. Currently Clinton’s popularity is very low, although his recent actions are partly to blame for that. However, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush’s popularity are high, although both were far less effective as president than Clinton was.

The one candidate who would definitely qualify as a new Profile in Courage would be Harry Truman. Truman made decisions that were increasingly unpopular during his eight years in office and left as the president with a 22% approval rating – still the lowest ever. Yet today he is regarded as one of our best presidents and the unpopular decisions he made – from desegregating the armed forces to firing MacArthur and beginning the containment policy to limit the spread of communism – are now seen as prescient and acts that helped the U.S. rebound from World War II. Will George W. Bush, who currently has similar approval ratings, regain a stature similar to Truman? Check back with me in 25 years.

More Info: My earlier blog comparing the Iraq War with the Philippine War