Dave's 2008 NFL Forecast

Last year, I predicted the Patriots would be undefeated but would fall to my hometown favorite team, the New York Giants, in an upset for the ages.

OK, that didn’t quite happen. I think I had the Giants third. But did anyone see any of those things happening? That’s why football is so great and these predictions are so goofy and fun.

Here’s my picks for this year. As of today, I am 100% confident I’m right. In fact, I’m going to do just as well this year as last year! Teams are picked in order of finish, with two wild cards and my “dark horse” pick for either most improved team or at least the team that will get some traction going.

NFC EAST
1) Dallas: The sad thing is Adam Jones, or Pacman Jones, or whatever his name is, may be just what this team needs. Of course with Terrell Owens still aboard and Jessica Simpson nearby, the good news is Dallas may replace the Patriots as the team America loves to hate.
2) NY Giants: Wild Card Team. The entire offense is back. The defense, er, is not. Justin Tuck can fill Strahan’s shoes, but filling Osi Umenyiora’s will be tougher. Some questions also remain at linebacker, but I have confidence in defensive coordinator Steve “Spags” Spagnuolo.
3) Philadelphia: Always a threat, but Donovan McNabb goes down for a month whenever he stubs his toe. The Eagles did upgrade their secondary with Asante Samuel, but those guys aren’t supposed to win the game for you.
4) Washington: I see promise in QB Jason Campbell, but I don’t think the Skins have the receivers for the West Coast offense the new coach wants to put in. The learning curve will be too steep for Washington to advance in the NFC East.

NFC CENTRAL
1) Green Bay: Favre is gone, but overall this team is way more balanced than the Vikings, especially on D. Solid cornerbacks in Harris and Woodson, great LBs in Hawk and Garnett and Aaron Kampman is a monster. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t make too many mistakes and the running game holds out, there should be no problems repeating.
2) Minnesota: Wild Card Team. Lots of people are picking the Vikings as their NFC Champion. They may win this weak division but I’m not sold on QB Tavaris Jackson, who was way too weak to get a team out of the first round of the playoffs. There’s promise with Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson is the real thing.
3) Detroit: Every year I rip GM Matt Millen for being dumber than a box of rocks. Last year the Lions started 6-2 and I didn’t panic. Sure enough, they finished 7-9. So what happens? Millen fires offensive coordinator Mike Martz, whose downfield scheme was perfect for the underachieving WRs Millen specializes in drafting. He also continued his seven year trend of ignoring defensive needs. Look for 2007 to be the high point of Millen’s career.
4) Chicago: Picking Kyle Orton to start over Rex Grossman at QB is like picking Newark over Camden as the best city in New Jersey. The only thing worse could be the rest of the offense.

NFC SOUTH
1) New Orleans: Last year everyone picked the Saints to win it all. Then they started 0-4 and finished 7-9. Injuries decimated the team, but now Deuce McAllister and Mike McKenzie are healthy and the Saints made some great free agent pickups with Jonathan Vilma and Jeremy Shockey. I’m not saying they’ll be champs, but I am saying bounceback.
2) Tampa Bay: This team seems to have the same players that won the Super Bowl in 2002 – Joey Galloway, Warrick Dunn, Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, etc. So how old are they now? The only new guy is QB Jeff Garcia, who is older than all of them.
3) Carolina: I like coach John Fox, but too much is riding on QB Jake Delhomme. If his elbow holds out the Panthers might finish 9-7, but WR Steve Smith is unhappy and DE Julius Peppers is way past his prime.
4) Atlanta: Let’s be charitable and call this a “rebuilding” year for all involved. I predict their coach won’t quit in the middle of the season, and next year’s very high draft choice will have an impact in 2009.

NFC WEST
1) Seattle: There’s two reasons Seattle has won the West for four years running. One is that Mike Holmgren always puts together a solid, if unspectacular, team that plays hard. Second is that the rest of the division is REALLY bad.
2) Arizona: Dark Horse Team. For a while the Cardinals have reminded me of a fly stuck behind a small sheet of glass in the middle of a field. There’s freedom around it, but it keeps banging into the glass. I admit it doesn’t look good when Kurt Warner beats out Matt Leinart for the starting QB, but the Cardinals have signed long-term contracts with talent like Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson and Anquan Boldin. Edgerrin James may have lost a step, but the Cardinals should surprise some teams and have no reason for finishing under .500.
3) St. Louis: RB Steven Jackson is one of the best in football, which is good because nobody else on the team can score a thing and the Rams have ignored the defense since the Greatest Show on Turf.
4) San Francisco: The good news is Mike Martz is out of Detroit. The bad news is he’s in San Francisco, trying to make lemonade out of QB J.T. O’Sullivan and WR Isaac Bruce (he’s 35) and no offensive line.

AFC EAST
1) New England: No duh. But don’t look for 16-0 this time. The Giants and Baltimore showed how to rattle the Patriots if you have a relentless pass rush and keep Brady running. A weak AFC East keeps the Patriots on top, but every team wants to beat them this year – real bad.
2) NY Jets: Dark Horse Team. Just when you thought the Jets were cooked the cavalry rides in. So how’s the rest of the team? Mangini plays a 3-4, and new defenseman Kris Jenkins will play nose tackle. Nose Tackle! The pass rush isn’t bad either, and Favre actually has Lavernaeus Coles to throw to.
3) Buffalo: No team has gone longer without getting to the playoffs than the Bills, but you can’t blame them for lack of effort. Buffalo actually has a good D with Aaron Schobel and Marcus Stroud and Marshawn Lynch is a solid RB. But there’s too much talent elsewhere to keep the Bills from nine wins.
4) Miami: I think Miami will win five or six this year, if only because Parcells will throw the fear of God into them if they stink up the place. Chad Pennington is an upgrade, but there’s too much to still be done.

AFC NORTH
1) Cleveland: Yes! This is the year for the Brownies. I’m not sold on QB Derek Anderson but Cleveland has drafted well and the team is loaded on offense with Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards. Both offensive and defensive lines are tight. If everyone stays healthy, this team could go far.
2) Pittsburgh: Wild Card Team. And if Cleveland stumbles, the Steelers will drive ahead. Pittsburgh has settled into a solid, grind-it-out team that does everything well but nothing great. Lots of weapons on offense, but except for Troy Polamalu the defense is not as great. Pittsburgh also has a very tough schedule this year.
3) Cincinnati: On paper they’re better than Tennessee, but this is a mentally beaten team that is getting hosed by its front office. Problematic troublemakers abound. The offense is good, but defense has never improved. QB Carson Palmer and coach Marvin Lewis deserve better.
4) Baltimore: Good defense, mediocre offense. Haven’t we been saying that since this franchise began? Rookie QB Joe Flacco will learn on the job, mostly on his back or running for his life.


AFC SOUTH
1) Jacksonville: I believe this is the year the Jaguars finally make the leap from good to great and finally knock the Colts down a peg. The defense is frightening, although they let up too easy on the Patriots last year. David Garrard was the right move at QB, and the offense has Maurice Jones-Drew and the ageless Fred Taylor. If the stars are aligned right, the Jaguars are ready to rumble.
2) Indianapolis: Wild Card Team. Sure, the Colts remain a very good team, but age and injuries are beginning to creep up on them. Peyton Manning, Jeff Saturday, Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders are hurting. Tony Dungy’s last year could be the last roundup.
3) Houston: The Texans are slowly becoming respectable, and may even break .500 if they were in an easier division. The defense is coming along nicely with Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans, and WR Andre Johnson is a legitimate deep threat. But QB Matt Schaub is not yet over the hump.
4) Tennessee: I like the defense, especially Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch, but QB Vince Young remains a work in progress who either plays better than anyone or horrendously. And he still has nobody to throw to.

AFC WEST
1) San Diego: Coach Norv Turner is still overrated, but he finally won some playoff games last year. And just like last year, it will be hard to screw up with a team as talented as this one. Remember that in last year’s AFC championship they played without QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDanian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates, all among the league’s best. Keep the injuries down and there may be a new AFC champ this year.
2) Denver: Denver is not a good team, but will finish second due to the scrap heap of remaining teams here. No defense except Champ Bailey, no offense except Jay Cutler throwing to Brandon Marshall spells another 7-9 year, or worse.
3) Oakland: The Raiders are out of the cellar, but that’s due more to the Chiefs falling than their growth. JaMarcus Russell will finally show the world whether Al Davis didn’t overpay somebody for once.
4) Kansas City: Even the Chiefs are calling this a rebuilding year. That’s code for “don’t bother showing up at Arrowhead.” Herman Edwards left the Jets for this?