Roll Over Ted Kennedy

Once again, the political future hangs in the balance of a Massachusetts Democrat. I would not be at all surprised if history repeats itself again. Mike Dukakis and John Kerry were both able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and Martha Coakley looks ready to do the same. What would Ted Kennedy say?

I first met Scott Brown a couple of years ago at a local event and my first thought was, “This guy is way too smart to be a state senator.” When he announced his candidacy I didn’t think he had a shot at winning, but didn’t think Coakley would underestimate him. I was wrong on both counts – Brown has campaigned hard (I’ve run into him twice by chance as he was pounding the pavement) and Coakley took the race for granted. The polls have been everywhere, but I’d place my money on Dave Paleologos’ Suffolk poll, which showed Brown at 50%, Coakley at 46%, a libertarian party at 3% and a jaw-dropping 1% undecided. Statistically it’s a dead heat, but that low undecided vote doesn’t give anyone much swing room.

How could this happen in Massachusetts? First, there is the Occam’s Razor principle that I’ve already discussed – Brown was a better candidate and ran a better campaign than Coakley. But you also need to ignore the “Bluest of Blue States” conventional wisdom. Massachusetts is a blue state for presidential elections, but all other politics is local and there is a long history of Republican governors and independent voters here in Massachusetts. If you look at ballot questions over the last two decades Bay State voters have abolished rent control, refused to let supermarkets sell alcohol, rolled back income taxes and refused to let day care center operators unionize. Does that sound like a blue state to you?

I believe Coakley also ran into the anti-incumbent buzzsaw that has sliced up so many elected officials the last two cycles and will likely reoccur this year. Look again at the Suffolk poll and see how many voters dislike the president’s health care plan, think the state is on the wrong track and dislike Governor Deval Patrick, a close Obama aide who also will face an uphill election battle. And those are people in Massachusetts! This is less about which political party has the upper hand and better platform and more about who is currently in office when the voters take their frustrations out on the ballot box. The Democrats benefitted the last two cycles, and it’s quite likely the Republicans will benefit this year.

The race will be close and it could come down to turnout, but I just saw two ads that almost say it all. The first was Scott Brown driving around in his truck meeting people in Worcester. The other was a 527 ad by a liberal group just as heinous as the Swift Boat ads, claiming that Brown will roll back a woman’s right to choose. In the current economy with unemployment being what it is, health care and financial bailouts dominating the news and a huge anti-Beacon Hill backlash evident, it’s safe to say abortion is pretty far down the list of voter priorities this year. How come Team Coakley can’t figure that out?

More Info: Yesterday, Coakley appeared with President Obama in Boston. Scott Brown appeared in Worcester with Curt Schilling and…Doug Flutie! Guess who had a larger crowd?