The Hangover's Coming

So you thought that once George W. Bush was out of office and Barack Obama was president everything would turn into sunshine and puppies, right? Just like Disney princess wannabes who just need to find their Prince Charming so their lives can turn into a fairy tale? Or the clueless CEOs at Internet startups I used to meet who thought all they needed was one story in the Wall Street Journal and the sales phones would ring off the hook?

Hopefully you do not think that way. But I’m willing to bet many do, especially the first-time voters among young Americans and minorities who are now looking at Obama as their savior. Unfortunately reality will soon bite them back. The last time I saw this much praising a new president among the youth and the media alike was…1992. Clinton came in as the last Democratic messiah who kicked the evil GOP out of the White House, and just two years later was so unpopular he ushered in Republican majorities in Congress.

Nobody knows what will happen in two years but a few things will definitely occur. First, Obama appears to be lining the Cabinet with longtime Democratic insiders. They are eminently qualified and cannot be worse than the current White House advisors and Cabinet, but anyone who voted for Obama because he promised change and was bringing an outsider’s and Mr. Smith type idealism to Washington is probably disappointed already.

Second, anyone who voted for Obama on a single issue (for example, because he would end the war in Iraq ASAP or institute a national health plan) is going to get disappointed. Getting anything done in Washington is like turning the Titanic. Change may come, but it’s not coming fast.

Third, at some point in the next four years, Barack Obama is going to make a mistake. In fact he may make more than one mistake. We’ll see how the newcomers to politics react when he makes this mistake. It may be something completely understandable or minor to wonks or political insiders, but if it involves breaking a campaign promise he could lose much of the goodwill he achieved.

The reason so many are jaded about politics is that candidates promise so much during the campaign but once they are in office they either realize they will be unable to deliver much of what they promise, or because circumstances arise that place different priorities on the front burner. Items fall through the cracks in every job, but politicians have so much scrutiny and so many people depending on them that those errors are magnified. I’d advise everyone who voted for the first time, especially in light of the current economy, to be patient with their expectations. Change may be coming, but it’s a long time coming.