Karl Rove on Hillary's Victory

Just a few scattered comments for now. Who better to explain Hillary’s resurgence than Karl Rove? If you’re lucky enough to have a Wall Street Journal subscription you need to read this. If not, here are the best nuggets:

Sen. Hillary Clinton won working-class neighborhoods and less-affluent rural
areas. Sen. Barack Obama won the college towns and the gentrified neighborhoods
of more affluent communities. Put another way, Mrs. Clinton won the beer
drinkers, Mr. Obama the white wine crowd. And there are more beer drinkers than
wine swillers in the Democratic Party.

So could it be Obama is capturing the limousine liberal, Harvard Square, Upper West Side vote? And Clinton the true Democratic base which, if Rove is correct, is more receptive to the recent negative campaigning and race-baiting that are becoming her modus operandi? The Democrats remain a coalition party, and if Hillary is aiming to lose a few members of the coalition to win the wider war by any means necessary, that is actually not a bad strategy. Of course, she will remain above it all while everyone from aides like Bill Shaheen to associates like Robert Johnson and even her husband attack Obama from every angle.

Here’s Rove’s best observation:

While Mr. Obama can draw on the deep doubts of many Democrats about Mrs.
Clinton, he can't close out the argument. Mr. Obama is an inspiring figure
playing a historical role, but that's not enough to push aside the former First
Lady and senator from New York. She's an historic figure, too. When it comes to
making the case against Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama comes across as a
vitamin-starved Adlai Stevenson. His rhetoric, while eloquent and moving at
times, has been too often light as air.

Here in Massachusetts, we had a similar gubernatorial campaign last year when Deval Patrick won on a similar message of unification, hope and prosperity without offering a single concrete proposal. Patrick just finished what can charitably described as a difficult first year in office, where he was plagued by missteps and could not see eye to eye with an entrenched Massachusetts legislature, even though he is also a Democrat.

Obama is going to have to deliver a knockout punch in the next few weeks, either in South Carolina on the 26th or Florida on the 29th, hopefully both. Should he fail, there are going to be lots of disaffected and forlorn “wine swillers” and Independents who will never vote for her. McCain Democrats, anyone?

One last point other bloggers have mentioned. When George W. Bush first became president, his father said he was not going to interfere in any way. It’s safe to say that definitely happened. If Hillary is elected president, you KNOW that Bill Clinton will be involved in quite the opposite matter. Both of them are love ‘em or hate ‘em figures. But that’s just what this country needs to get the partisanship and gridlock out of politics, right?