New Hampshire Surprise

So you thought the voters wanted change, huh?

I think one thing everyone (including me) needs to acknowledge is that despite the front-loaded primary schedule this year, this is a marathon and not a sprint. Perhaps we were all a bit too eager to pin the nominee label on Obama – and it’s quite clear who the media is pushing in this race now. And as I thought, it’s also quite clear who the GOP wants to win. A quick look here reveals the telling quote – “We might get our chance at Hillary if Obama can’t do it.” Truer words have never been spoken. Vote for Hillary, and you’re ensuring another four years of Republicans in the White House.

So what happened? It was unseasonably warm in New Hampshire yesterday with highs in the 60s, which turned into a huge turnout. Also in New Hampshire independents can vote for either party, so that took some independent votes away from Obama and toward McCain, who also polls well with them. And we’ve all read Maureen Dowd this morning, but it could just be that Hillary’s emotional breakdown showed she actually may have a soul underneath all that plastic after all. Some have written about how that moment made women vote for her. I don’t even pretend to know enough about women to pontificate on how the female mind works, so I’m not even going there.

Some have cited “experience” as the reason for going with Hillary. I’m unconvinced by this explanation. If voters truly value experience, they would have voted for Joe Biden, Bill Richardson or Christopher Dodd, who each have more political experience than Hillary does. Funny how experience never emerges in GOP circles as an attribute.

Romney’s campaign is in serious trouble now. Massachusetts politicians have always done well in New Hampshire (Kerry won in 2004 and even Paul Tsongas won here in 1992), and he has been organized here long before any other candidate. And does anyone remember the former front runner, Rudy Giuliani? Whatever happened to him? Does he really expect to take the next month off and then emerge from nowhere to recapture the lead? Who is advising this guy, and why is he listening to them?

One last thought: I’ve previously mentioned the dangers of having two families dominate politics in America. We have a new intern at my real job that was born in 1989. That means that I am not only old, but during her entire life either a Bush or Clinton has run the country. She represents a new generation that will vote in its first election. Just how will voting for Hillary “change” America? If her name was Hillary Smith, would she have any consideration or be taken this seriously as a candidate?

More Info: Complete NH polling results