Viva Schadenfreude!

So people like you and me who don't follow celebrity gossip are finally thrilled that a judge has locked up Paris Hilton. But I'm not going topile on someone who's as deep as a puddle. I'm here to say get ready, because when she figures out how to open the exit door she will be a bigger celebrity than ever. If anything we'll have to endure her even more.

The only thing that fascinates our celebrity-obsessed culture more than acelebrity is a celebrity behaving badly. And in the United States today -- a country with citizens dying in an unpopular war, troubled public schools,outsourced blue- and white-collar jobs and an upcoming Boomer retirement glut that few people are prepared for -- nothing gets more media and public attention than a troublemaking celebrity! How many trust-fund princesses have been to jail? Paris is a G now!

Expect her newfound fascination with God and desire to better the world to last as long as the next Middle East ceasefire. Or until her next DUI.

The media apocalypse awaits. Get ready for all Paris all the time!

Random Musings on the Presidential Field

I’ve purposely resisted saying anything about the 2008 election yet because, like most of America, I don’t have the intestinal fortitude to remotely ponder it yet with any clear thought. But with the media, in all its ADD-glory, anointing Michael Bloomberg our next leader before a single vote has been cast I feel I must bloviate.

So here are some scattergun thoughts:

· Michael Bloomberg is a smart guy who may make a good Independent candidate. He will not be president. No Independent candidate – from Teddy Roosevelt to John Anderson to Ross Perot to Ralph Nader to whoever comes next – has been president nor will ever be president. The two parties are far too ensconced in our political culture and provide far too much money and organizational support to let an Independent get in the way. I’m actually a big fan of third party candidates and while they can succeed on a local level with the right candidate, a national race is way too vast for a candidate without a party to manage.
· Don’t be fooled by Bloomberg’s war chest. Steve Forbes and Ross Perot had just as much cash. In fact, people who donate money to a candidate are far more likely to volunteer, fundraise or promote him or her to other people in order to make their investment work out. The candidate with the most money generally does win, but it’s not a sure thing.
· States are tripping over each other to have the first primary. Unfortunately, New Hampshire isn’t giving up its prize and the New Hampshire Constitution states it must have the first primary in the nation. And if that means New Hampshire has its primary in December 2007, then that’s what it will have. If all the other states line up behind it, we’ll have our nominees by Valentine’s Day (if not earlier).
· Love her or hate her, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. She is the establishment candidate and the Democratic establishment candidate always wins. Obama has a nice RFK/Gary Hart in 1984 buzz about him, but Clinton will do whatever possible to sabotage his candidacy. The notoriously unreliable early polls have Clinton first or a close second in many states, but each one has uniformly given her whoppingly high negative and unfavorable numbers. Could the Democrats damn the torpedoes and choose a candidate that is completely unappealing to large numbers of independent voters? Well gosh, I truly have no idea.
· The GOP race is more up in the air, but my gut tells me Mitt Romney is running for the VP slot. Here’s what I think of Romney, and if I had more time for the blog I would link to some sites like this one you’ve seen.

The Jihad Cancer

The civil war we’re watching in Iraq is now paralleled by the civil war we’re watching in Gaza. It’s safe to say the huge escalation in violence in Gaza was made possible by Israel ending its occupation and withdrawing its troops. Will the same thing happen in Iraq once we finally leave, with violence expanding beyond the Sunni triangle to the stable areas of Kurdistan and Basra? I don’t know. And don’t forget that long-running civil war in Somalia, with a central government that has effectively ceased to exist for over a decade.

There is a serious cancer in the Arab world, with no foreseeable way out. As Tom Friedman keeps pointing out, the Islamist groups from Al Qaeda to Hezbollah and Hamas have no central philosophy that involves state-building or helping citizens. Their sole M.O. is war and death – war and death for Israel, America, the West and other Arabs and Muslims. And it doesn’t matter who is running those particular countries or who gets in their way. They care so little about their own lives that they are more than happy to kill themselves if it gives them a better chance to kill you.

There are some success stories in the Middle East (besides Israel): United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait have progressive economies, better social standards than most and do not hate outsiders. They have learned to diversify their economies beyond oil and educate their citizens beyond merely standing behind the Koran as a justification for jihad. But these are exceptions. Most countries are run by despotic rulers or teeming with extremists who know nothing but jihad, for that is all they have been taught. And I sense there is a silent majority of Arab citizens who are good people that hate the jihadists but are trapped in the middle, either quietly suffering or leaving their countries behind.

The Passion of Al Gore

In 2000 I hated, hated, HATED Al Gore. Like much of the public and most of the media, I regarded him as an inauthentic, plastic automaton who was quick to claim credit for developments he had little or no control over (inventing that Internet, creating the strategic petroleum reserve, etc.). Gore was a terrible campaigner, lost two of three debates to George W. Bush and couldn’t even win his home state of Tennessee in 2000. Winning that would have given him the Electoral College and the presidency.

After conceding, Gore disappeared. In hindsight, I believe he had a midlife crisis. Like a Kennedy, he had been groomed for public office and the presidency and when he didn’t get it he was adrift. But I never thought Gore looked, well, comfortable when he was a public servant. Remember the cracks about him being a phlegmatic robot? He was like the kid whose overbearing parents molded him from Day One to be the ballplayer or the doctor, when inside there was an artist or writer bursting to get out, but dutifully following orders nevertheless.

Then he finally emerged with “An Inconvenient Truth.” Gore had been talking about climate change for years, mostly to complacent audiences. The media called him “Ozone Man.” But he was ahead of his time then, and now with high gas prices, rising seas and a population weary of its wartime leader, his time had come. What a change! Gore was hailed as an environmental messiah, and the once-scorned VP was now adored by the public and the media, who implored him to run for president again, all inconveniently forgetting how dispassionately and poorly he ran last time.

I think much of Gore’s resurgence is due to Bush’s unpopularity and that nostalgic look back at choices made that we now regret, much like wishing we really hadn’t broken up with that college girlfriend when a marriage turns bad. But I also think much of it is that Gore, who never seemed happy in the role he was somewhat forced to play, is finally doing what he wants to do. He evangelized about the environment long before it was fashionable to do so, and it clearly is something he is passionate about. That passion, combined with his celebrity, is the true reason for his renaissance. He will not run for public office again – this is the role he was born to play.

And his new book? I read the Time excerpt and was intrigued. I haven’t read the entire book, but did flip through it and came back to earth a bit. Blaming today’s problems on the media (I rip the media at least once a month, but don’t blame it for collective idiocy) is a bit too easy. I actually find it fascinating the same media that was so harsh on Gore when he was in office now worships him, a sure sign that the media is overly negative on politicians and politics in general.

The book also reminds me of his turgid, flat speaking style with passages like:

“The remedy for what ails our democracy is not simply better education (as important as that is) or civic education (as important as that can be), but the re-establishment of a genuine democratic discourse in which individuals can participate in a meaningful way — a conversation of democracy in which meritorious ideas and opinions from individuals do, in fact, evoke a meaningful response.”

I don’t know about you, but that run-on sentence brings back the terrible speeches and debates Gore would make on the campaign trail. I am fully confident this book was not ghost-written.

Would I change my 2000 vote today if I had the chance? No. Gore has already achieved more for the environment than he ever could as President, especially with the Republican Congress he would have inherited. The new book, while guised as either a wannabe dissertation on American Society or a logical blueprint to fix the systems that run it, looks like a slog. But the guy has finally found his calling and is living his life the way he wants, and that is what I truly admire.

More Info:
An interesting review by the New York Observer, by a media person that somehow takes offense that the media is to blame.

Divine Justice for Jerry?

Today we're going to look at bigotry, closed-mindedness and hatred of other human beings...from both sides of the political aisle.

As you know, Jerry Falwell died this week. Rarely has there been a more polarizing figure in American life, especially one who supposedly spoke for Jesus. Falwell, more than anyone else, helped deliver the formerly apathetic evangelical vote into the Republican party, giving that party a strong theocratic base. Of course, Falwell himself showed far less sympathy than Jesus ever did. Whether it was blaming homosexuality and abortion for September 11, equating Jews with the Antichrist, supporting apartheid in South Africa, equating fundamentalist beliefs with political acceptability and doing anything possible to smite gays, Falwell became a catalyst for bigotry and prejudice that has germanated in numerous other religious movements and figures.

Now I try not to speak ill of the recently dead and it takes a lot to startle me. But I was blown away by the venemous vitriol to Falwell's passing by the liberal blogs and many of the message boards on places like The New York Times. Here's a sampling:

• "He’ll be remembered as a hatemonger who helped destroy the Republican Party and his work to try to destroy the entire country. Falwell was neither moral or the majority.
  Long may he burn…."
• "Falwell occupied one end of a dark spectrum, Osama at the other end. Believe it or not, they share the same ideology “hate and kill that which is not part of you.”
• "I am trying HARD not to be happy that he is dead, because he was such a sick delusional psycho….preaching hate, creating division, & generally just a power hungry VERY deluded person…. I say good riddance!"

Well, well. You can look at DailyKos, HuffingtonPost and numerous other blogs and message boards for more rejoicing and insults far worse than these. Now I certainly didn't like Falwell either, but the blind hatred and intolerance I'm seeing from liberals is equally as bad as anything Falwell ever said.

Even though Falwell was a bigot and hatemonger, at least he didn't embezzle, cheat on his wife and family or do anything as morally wrong as the Jim Bakkers, Jimmy Swaggarts and Ted Haggards did. Falwell at least practiced what he preached and didn't stray from his version of the Bible (as wrong as I think it was) and his ultimate judgement and resting place will be decided by God (if that's what you believe).

His passing should be a final reminder that morality does not equal ethics, and blind hatred of other people and beliefs will continue on the right and the left.

More Info:

Chris Hitchens, an atheist, wishes hell exists for Falwell.

NY Times messageboard on Falwell's death

Karl Rove: It's Business, Not Personal

It's not well-known -- but not a secret -- that Karl Rove's stepfather and the man who raised him was gay. If you're surprised that the man who has so often resorted to anti-gay prejudice to win elections for his clients has a father who came out of the closet, don't be. Whether it was insinuating Ann Richards was a lesbian and she would appoint homosexual activists to her cabinet, or using anti-gay marriage amendments to drive get out the vote efforts for fundamentalists in 2004, Rove likely believed his efforts were business-related, not based on his personal beliefs. Just like Michael Corleone, he was able to separate the business and personal to do his job. Rove had a good relationship with his stepfather (who was very aware of his stepspon's actions) and had no problems accepting his lifestyle.

The same book stated that Rove was agnostic and raised in a non-religious home. Now a slightly larger bombshell drops that Rove is actually a confirmed atheist. Again, Rove's devotion to the Christian evangelicals is for business reasons, although it would be VERY interesting to see how they interpret this news.

We may have a black president, female president or Jewish president in my lifetime, but I doubt America would ever elect an atheist. We are far too moral of a country to ever have the tolerance to accept someone who has no faith. How ironic.

Rocket Gun for Hire

Roger Clemens has become baseball’s Man With No Name. Like Clint Eastwood, Clemens is an iconic Gun For Hire who drifts from town to town to assist whichever ball club offers him the most money. Like Eastwood, Clemens is the best at what he does, mowing down baffled hitters with a split-fingered shooter of ruthless efficiency. And when the season is over and his work is done, he collects his paycheck and wanders off, ready to offer his services to the next town that can ante up for him.

I actually don’t have a problem with Clemens becoming a mercenary in the twilight of his baseball career. If he can find a ballclub willing to pay for his services and he produces, more power to him. And Lord knows the Yankees could use him. New York has a pitching staff that resembles a MASH unit with a collective age that is almost AARP eligible. Not to mention an ERA that is worse than Tampa Bay’s.

The only thing I object to is Clemens’ self-professed desire to work for a team that will give him a shot at the World Series. That is bunk. Clemens signed with New York over Boston and Houston because they gave him the most money and a chance to start right away (which would also give him more money). Prorated for a June 1 beginning, Clemens will make $28 million a season, eclipsing Alex Rodriguez’s $27 million salary. The signing puts the Yankees another $7.5 million in the hole on luxury tax issues. Clemens will also enjoy the perks the Yankees said they would never give him last year, including private travel apart from his teammates and not having to accompany the team on road trips if he doesn’t want to. So much for Brian Cashman’s pledge to make the Yankees younger and more of a team.

Even though the Red Sox have a more recent World Series victory and are 5 ½ games in front of New York right now, Red Sox diehards will always have a serious case of Yankee Envy. The mood up here is a “Who needs him anyway?” attitude, mired in the perennial Boston sour grapes. I advise all Sox fans to just wait until next year, when Schilling’s contract is up and Clemens’ services are for hire again. Who knows where the gunslinger may turn up next spring?

Our Princess-Free House and Daughter

Like parents with young children everywhere, we belong to the Disney Movie Club and our house is stocked with Disney DVDs. Finding Nemo? Check. Toy Story? Check. Cinderella?

Nope, no Cinderella. And no Sleeping Beauty, Little Mermaid or Snow White either. To promote my young daughter’s long-term self-esteem, we are keeping our house princess free.

If you look at the classic Disney titles I’ve mentioned here, they all involve a princess heroine. And this heroine is the most passive and dependent person in the entire movie, who is unable to do much of anything until she finds a prince, gets married and lives happily ever after in a land of sunshine and unicorns. How sexist and antiquated, especially in 2007 when women are running countries, curing diseases and (too) slowly become CEOs of leading international companies.

I don’t blame Disney for this. Many of these movies were made decades ago when a woman was expected to stay home, raise the children and have a warm dinner waiting for her husband, who she also relied on for money. Women rarely went to college or had any chance of careers outside of teaching or administrative work. Thankfully this era has passed, but way too many women today (especially those with less education or poor role models) still consider their lives incomplete unless they’ve found a rich man.

But the films, which of course are well-made classics, have remained and now the princess bridal gowns and the chance to have a princess wedding in Disney World. It goes beyond Disney too. Mattel now has a Princess Barbie line, and lots of hotels and restaurants have “princess packages” for girls under 10.

Do I sound like an overreacting ultra-feminist? I probably do, but even if this is a phase young girls will grow out of, I’m leery of my impressionable young daughter being marketed a lifestyle where nothing is more important than marriage and good looks. Girls today have enough bad role models with Britney Spears, the Pussycat Dolls and Paris Hilton already. Right near us in Natick, Massachusetts is a Club Libby Lu, a store billed as a girl’s secret club where girls can get makeovers, clothes (miniskirts and tube tops appear to be popular) and “have their own princess party!!!” The store’s target market? Five- to 12-year-olds.

So for as long as possible, my wife and I are keeping our house princess-free. As for Disney, they got the message in the 1990s and recent movies like Aladdin and Pocahontas feature independent women who don’t run away with a man to live happily ever after. Even better is Mulan, where the heroine is told girls need to stay at home and subsequently disguises herself as a boy to lead an army and save her father. Curiously, Mulan appears in the Princess line in a kimono, which she hated wearing in the movie because she was told that’s what women had to wear.

And when someone recently told my daughter she was a princess she said, “I’m not a princess! I’m a big girl!!” I have already congratulated myself on my parenting.

More Info: A feature in The New York Times on this subject (subscribers only - bleah)

Kicking the Media While It's Down, Continued

Here's two nice follow-ups to yesterday's post. The celebrity/gossip rag In Touch decided to go legit last week and focus on the Virginia Tech tragedy. Today it reported the substance issue flopped, giving it horrendously low sales. So much for that. I remember about 10 years ago the Boston Herald, which I would place on a journalistic par with Newsday, also opted to go with a more journalistic redesign and focus less on the tabloid style front page and gossip. About two months later they switched back after circulation fell. Also worth noting is that while many daily newspapers and traditional substantive print media are suffering declining advertising and circulation, most gossip magazines are doing just fine. After all, they're giving the public what it wants.

Second, tonight the great Bill Moyers will have a special on how the media was duped into selling the Iraq War to the public on bogus, if not ouright false, pretenses. I could write a long post about this, but here's some quick thoughts. First, the so-called "legitimate" news media is supposed to do investigatory work and act as a watchdog against the government. This obviously did not happen. Far too many media outlets simply regurgitate whatever the government (or anyone else) tells them without proper fact checking or verification. You can attribute this to laziness, budget cuts in investigatory teams, a rush to be the first out with the news for ratings reasons or a combination of all three plus some other things I've omitted.

Second, and this is one of those strange, twisted compliments, you've got to hand it to the Bush Administration for doing such a masterful job of selling the war. Their messaging was tight, their spokespersons for selling the war were compelling (at the time) and the media bought it hook, line and sinker. As a PR flack, I can vouch for how important it is to be proactive with the media and set the agenda as much as possible so you get the message out that you want. Watch the documentary Weapons of Mass Deception to learn more about how this was accomplished.

News Flash: The Media Screw Up Again

In light of last week’s Virginia Tech tragedy, there has been an awful lot of disrespect and bad behavior by various interest groups who have sought to manipulate this terrible event to advance their own agenda. On the left you have gun control advocates and on the right there are anti-immigration supporters who jumped on the bandwagon to ignore the bodies and flaunt their grandstanding before the crime scene was secured.

But let’s reserve our highest scorn for the media, which continues to eat through the bottom of the barrel. NBC shamelessly used the killer’s paranoid and deranged video and photos to get attention for its flagging MSNBC franchise, and made sure the NBC slug (the logo on the bottom corner) was present so anyone could see which media source got the exclusive. Many of the victim’s family members correctly cancelled interviews with NBC to protest its poor taste, and NBC later pulled back on showing the video. Naturally that led to one of my favorite topics – the media doing an expose on itself to ponder if it has morals. The flak and backlash spilled into the newspapers as well, proving that no matter what you think of the American public, its morals are higher than the media that cater to them.

2007 is truly shaping up to be a banner year for the media to go beyond the realm of decency and highlight the importance of entertainment over substance. First, there were four funerals without a wedding – Gerry Ford, Saddam Hussein, James Brown and Anna Nicole Smith. That’s three people who changed the world and a gold digging bimbo. Who got the most coverage and attention?

Before it backtracked, NBC said the video and photos would have reached the public anyway. That’s true, but nobody would be surprised if a tabloid or anonymous web site broadcast the images first. Also, were the images newsworthy? That can and should be debated, but popular opinion and hindsight have now proven that airing a photo of a mass murderer pointing a gun at the newspaper reader or television viewer is not the way to start your day. Also, the killer's only desire was to immortalize himself by sending the pictures and video to the media and they played right into his hands, giving him exactly what he wanted.

By highlighting a killer’s deranged manifesto over showing respect for the victims, the media once again proves that entertainment and sensationalism trumps ethics and journalism. Get used to it and accept it, because it’s not changing.

More Info:

An opposing view by Jack Shafer

Alberto on the Hill

As Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who I never thought deserved his job, takes the stand to testify on Capitol Hill today, we may finally see the new Congress acting like a real legislative body by being an effective check to the legislative branch.

One of the nicer things about having a divided government (Republican executive and Democratic legislative) is that Congress will no longer act as a rubber stamp to the President and let him act above the law. From suspending habeas corpus to wiretapping without a warrant and that little war in Iraq started under dubious – if not false – pretenses, the president and his entire branch of office has been unchecked by Congress. Part of Congress’ job is acting as a buffer to the president when he breaks the law or extends executive power beyond the limits of the Constitution.

Depending on Gonzales’ performance in this bungled and mismanaged affair involving the attorney firings, we may see the first appropriate use of Congressional oversight on this issue since Bush came to office. There were no Congressional hearings (serious ones, anyway) on any of the issues I described above. The last president to act so boldly with executive power and privilege was Nixon, and we all remember how that turned out.

News Flash: Imus Exposed as Talentless Racist

I couldn’t care less about Don Imus. Not because he’s a racist, or he’s a grumpy curmudgeon, or he’s way too old to pretend to be a cowboy. I couldn’t care less because Imus has never been anything more than a third-rate Howard Stern imitator with an anemic audience.

I grew up in New Jersey where Imus started on WNBC-AM. He was a typical DJ who spun 8-10 records an hour, and somehow got an irreverent reputation by saying things like, “Quack quack, who loves you baby?” between songs. When Stern started on WNBC in the afternoon, Imus began stealing Stern’s bits and became legendary as the first, and probably the best known, Howard Stern rip-off artist. Imus started the truly horrible trend of “shock jocks” that steal Stern’s attitude and material, but lack not only Stern’s wit and humor but also his ability to draw and keep an audience. Whatever you think of Howard Stern, he is truly an original that changed radio. Stern moved to another station in Imus's air time and knocked Imus and his bastard progeny down in the ratings, where they have pretty much stayed.

Both Stern and his African American sidekick, Robin Quivers, detailed how Imus was extremely racist in real life since they met him. In fact, despite Imus’s bizarre ability to draw politicians and intellectuals to his tawdry show, he kept up a running commentary of racist comments throughout the last few years. Since Imus had no sense of humor and little intelligence, these rants repeatedly came across as the rantings of a bitter old man who had never changed his attitude. When last week’s “nappy headed ho’s” comment finally got him fired, I wasn’t shocked or outraged. I just thought, “What took so long?”

Imus also showed his idiocy by going to fellow racist Al Sharpton to beg forgiveness. The mind reels at this vapid decision. Who named Al “Tawana Brawley” Sharpton and Jesse “Hymietown” Jackson as the race police? Did anyone appoint them spokespersons for the black community? Does anyone outside the media take them seriously? Having long lived past their usefulness, these two have become the equivalent of racist ambulance chasers, pinning deserved and undeserved racism charge on anyone who allegedly affronts African Americans. Their recorded comments on the now-exonerated Duke lacrosse team belies their self-declared legitimacy. Imus gained nothing except further scorn for appearing on Sharpton’s show. Even showing up on Sharpton’s turf probably alienated Imus’s tens of real fans. Why not appear on someone like Tavis Smiley’s show, or just invite the Rutgers basketball team to his studio so he could have apologized on familiar ground to the only people that truly deserved an apology?

Besides the foolishness of kowtowing to Sharpton and Jackson, much has been written about how these two completely ignore the fusillade of far, far worse language that emanates from hip hop lyrics on urban radio on a daily basis. This criticism is well-deserved and is a serious problem in the African American community. There is a serious violent and misogynistic streak in rap lyrics that nobody is dealing with right now. It also shows the vacuum of a true moral compass in the black community when its two so-called “spokespersons” have numerous racial and ethical transgressions.

But Imus? Who cares? He was an unoriginal and unfunny hack who was caught doing what he has always done for years.

More Info:

Hypocrisy Toward Sharpton and Jackson from all sides of the political aisle. Here's Black Athlete, syndicated columnist Kathleen Parker, Princeton University and The Washington Times, to name just a few.

Also, scroll down to see my earlier post on Imus' fellow racist Michael Richards.

Real Moral Values

Finally there is a presidential candidate that is a true believer in family values and a role model in preaching how you should live your life. That candidate is John Edwards. His admirable press conference with his ailing wife, who is terminally ill with cancer, was a refreshing example of what real moral values are all about.

It’s unfortunate that moral/family values have been co-opted by a bunch of strident and virulent charlatans on the right who don’t even have their own values in order. Whether it’s Newt Gingrich hypocritically lambasting Bill Clinton’s extramarital affair while having one on his own, Ann Coulter calling Edwards a faggot to rounds of applause, or the slew of firebrand theocrats that are destroying the Republican party by using religion to divide and spread prejudice in our country, it is clear that morality does not equal ethics with this motley crew.

Some people will say Edwards should quit the campaign to attend to his wife, and that is certainly a valid point. But they jointly said they want to soldier on and not let her illness stop their campaign, and that is their decision. Best of luck and to them, along with thanks for reminding all of us what true values are.

In Massachusetts, Not Working Can Pay Off

Like many Massachusetts white collar workers, I had the misfortune of being downsized a few years ago through no fault of my own. But there was a silver lining – I collected more money while unemployed than I did as a salaried worker. And it was all completely legal.

While new Governor Deval Patrick is looking for ways to close corporate tax loopholes and adjust massive corporate subsidies to help benefit the Commonwealth, he can also look for ways to adjust state spending in ways that will also benefit society. And one of those is in the way Massachusetts assists its unemployed residents. Now I’m not calling for an end to unemployment – I was very happy to get those checks and the state should be of assistance to people trying to find new jobs. But there are massive plugs in the system as people get paid who don’t need, or deserve, to get it.

First, take yours truly. When I was laid off, I got a decent severance package in exchange for signing a legal document not to sue my former employer. It’s a scam, but you gotta sign it if you want your severance. Well according to Massachusetts employment law, signing that qualifies you to full unemployment benefits while you're still getting your severance. So you can collect an unemployment check AND get your severance until it runs out. You’re getting more money for not working. Nobody is going to refuse free money, and I’m betting it’s mainly going into the pockets of skilled, white collar workers who can get a new job easily and do without the money fairly quickly.

Does your job depend on the weather? Roofers can legally collect unemployment during the winter and ski instructors can collect in the summer. If you own your own business or are self-employed in a tourist-driven location like Martha’s Vineyard, you can lay yourself off in the off-season and legally collect unemployment. The state’s Division of Unemployment Assistance calls people like this “frequent fliers” because they have legally collecting unemployment while employed for several decades.

Here’s another problem. How much you get in unemployment benefits is based on your salary before you got laid off (plus an additional stipend for every child). That means the white collar executive who makes $100,000 collects more than the blue collar guy who makes $35,000, even though the blue collar guy probably needs the money more. And I’ll bet the executive got a nice severance package as well and is more skilled to find a new job faster.

Moreover, unemployment taxes only apply to the first $14,000 of taxable wages, so the executive’s company (and his future company) is taxed proportionally less than the blue collar guy’s previous and future company. Unemployment insurance is one place where Massachusetts is still “Taxachusetts.” Massachusetts businesses pay $637 per employee in unemployment insurance, while the national average is $315. Since this is unfairly biased toward smaller businesses, these taxes – along with the rampant abuse and high unemployment benefits paid to workers who either don’t need or don’t deserve them – are a large part of what is causing the current exodus of middle class workers and the businesses that employ them from the state. And it’s also causing many businesses who can afford the high cost of unemployment insurance, such as Fidelity and Staples, to find new jobs outside Massachusetts as well.

I am not advocating ending unemployment checks. It is a necessary benefit for people who are between jobs. But if Governor Patrick is serious about easing the fiscal burden of doing business in Massachusetts with both the state and its businesses, he needs to get the Commonwealth’s eligibility requirements, benefits and tax burden to close the loopholes. This would best help people who need the money most and end the widespread abuse of the system.

More Info:

Mixed Benefits – A fantastic article on abuse in the unemployment industry by the former director of the Division of Unemployment Assistance. I got most of the figures from this story.

NFIB Call to Action – A small business trade group details how the current unemployment benefit system is strangling small businesses in Massachusetts.

U.S. Backed Overthrows are an Old, Old Story

Once upon a time, United States troops entered a foreign country half a world away under the guise of liberation. They were initially welcomed and regaled with thanks. But tensions soon developed. U.S. troops became resented, and denounced as imperialists and colonialists. Fighting soon erupted between the U.S. and that country. U.S. forces sometimes fought with established armies, but soon the other country started resorting to guerilla-style combat, prolonging hostilities and taxing both the country and our troops. Well over 100,000 U.S. forces were soon fighting and dying in what was supposed to be an easy mission, which ran for years after the president formally declared an end to large-scale hostilities. As the situation dragged on, U.S. troops were accused of war crimes and torturing prisoners and opposition to both the war and the president claimed a heavy political toll.

Is this Iraq today? Nope. It was the War in the Philippines that was happening exactly a century ago. The parallels are eerily familiar, but the similarities don’t stop at the Philippines. Since becoming a world power, the United States has had a long history of toppling foreign governments or invading other countries when it serves our interests. Sometimes this has been correct and justified, like overthrowing Hitler in World War II, Milosevic in Kosovo or the Taliban in Afghanistan. Sometimes U.S. troops are involved (Iraq, the Philippines, Panama in 1989). Sometimes we are a behind-the-scenes player (Iran in 1953, Hawaii in 1893). Sorry, but Iraq was not instigated by Bush’s buddies at ExxonMobil. And of course, there’s that whole Vietnam/Cambodia thing.

All of these endeavors were executed by people who claimed to have America’s best interests at heart. Not all of them turned out to be successful, and some had disastrous consequences, either right away or a decade or two down the road. It is inevitable that given America’s power, it will become involved in other country’s domestic affairs and get its hands dirty. And this is certainly not limited to America either, given Ethopia's recent invasion of Somalia to topple the fundamentalist Muslim government. In fact, the last decade alone of regime change and government overthrows in Africa, by African nations makes the U.S. look like the U.N.

But I’m willing to bet people aren’t learning from past mistakes, and don’t take proven historical facts like nationalism and sectarianism into account when deciding how much intervention or force is necessary. And overthrowing governments have been U.S. success stories too. Countries like Panama and Afghanistan are much better off today than they were beforehand. But the U.S.-backed Iranian coup that placed the Shah of Iran in power sowed the seeds for disastrous consequence two decades later, Vietnam forever scarred us, and Iraq certainly looks grim.

In the Philippines, U.S. troops were involved in full-scale war for three years until Teddy Roosevelt declared hostilities over and made the Philippines a U.S. colony. However, U.S. troops continued fighting a guerilla war (with the official Philippine army they trained) for another 11 years. The Philippine War is barely mentioned in U.S. history books today. How long will the Iraq parallels continue? Nobody knows.

More info: Overthrow: America’s Century of Regime Change – An overview of the last 100 years or so of American-designed coups gone bad. Focuses too much on the negative, but still worth checking out.

Why Anna Nicole Smith's Death is So Incredibly Important

If I had more money, I’d like to pay a media clipping and monitoring service to see whose death received more notice and attention during the last two months: Saddam Hussein’s, Gerry Ford’s or Anna Nicole Smith’s. I know who I’d bet on.

Why is this so? I’ve seen a few pundits and bloviaters using this as yet another excuse to bemoan the dumbing-down of America, and the media focusing on the sensational instead of the substantial, etc. etc. These same media outlets, after beating us senseless with every development on this admittedly juicy post-mortem speculation on her cause of death, paternity dispute, inheritance battle and conspiracy theory, then take a step back and ask if their tabloid focus reflects well on themselves.

That always makes me chuckle. But the simple fact is that most people in America know more and care more about Anna Nicole Smith than a former president, and more people in America followed her life and will watch the struggle over her remains than those who know how Saddam Hussein’s capture, trial and death will affect the entire Middle East. Nobody would argue that the Middle East is more important, but most Americans simply can’t or won’t follow those traces. After all, a Playmate of the Year who may have several hundred million dollars is dead.

You may think that sardonic paragraph is an indictment on our celebrity-obsessed culture that values appearance and tabloid news over intelligence and ethical, political debate. You’re probably right. But guess what? That is what most people value. More people watch Entertainment Tonight and Access Hollywood than Frontline and Meet the Press. I used to say this was wrong and people should be more discriminating. But I sounded like one of those elitists who decry the drop in our moral values while everyone else is drinking the superficial Kool Aid.

So I no longer rail against the masses’ choice in news and entertainment. I merely observe and comment on it. And so do the media. In a perfect world, Frontline and Entertainment Tonight’s ratings would be reversed, but they’re not. The media wouldn’t keep feeding us bland entertainment and trivial news if we were not eating it up in the first place. Why eat your vegetables when candy tastes so sweet?

This is one of those unfortunate facts about how the world works. As much as the elites complain about how the media is dumbing down America, the fact is the media needs to make a buck at the end of the day just like you do. And if smart news and entertainment aren’t selling and the celebrity shows are, what are they gonna do? Gerry Ford’s funeral was televised. Did you watch it? Of course not. But if Anna Nicole Smith’s funeral is televised, and you hear that all the warring paternal suitors, family members and people who want part of her estate would be together, would you be at least a little curious? Of course you would. It could be a train wreck, but it would also be great TV. Just like her many media interviews, Playboy photo spreads and reality show.

RIP Anna Nicole Smith, or whatever your real name was. Your untimely death has showed us what really matters to people after all. And it also proves why the media keeps giving most of us exactly what we want.

More Info:

A similar, though slightly different take from the L.A. Times on how the Internet is telling mainstream media what the public wants

My earlier post on why you can't trust the media

Guerilla Marketing Bombs in Boston

There was some panic in Boston Wednesday as two local idiots took the fall for Turner Broadcasting’s guerilla marketing campaign for Aqua Teen Hunger Force, which shut down two bridges, the Charles River, parts of the MBTA and put the city under a terrorist scare before the hoax was fully revealed.

The whole thing made me feel a bit old because I have never heard of, let alone watched, the show. Judging by the reaction of the show’s message boards, this means I’m an old fart (well, that’s true) who completely overreacted to a marketing campaign that wasn’t aimed at me. It makes me feel a bit better to realize that 98% of the population here is probably with me, and the defendants’ immature reactions to their indictments didn’t do the show’s fans or supporters any favors. Turner has also published a full apology and says it will reimburse the city for expenses (except for items like lost T fares, businesses that had to close, people who missed flights and appointments due to mass transit shutdowns, etc.)

On one hand, if the campaign was aimed to boneheads like the defendants, the campaign was a wild success. Fines and potential jail terms are small potatoes compared to the reams of free publicity the show received, and its ratings will rise in the near term as curiosity will pique interest in Aqua Teen Hunger Force.

But as usual, Boston Mayor Tom Menino is right. In the world we now live in, security and public safety are paramount, and an overreaction is better than ignorance. The people on message boards and elsewhere who dismiss Bostonians as being out of touch because we haven’t seen the show and don’t get the guerilla marketing campaign have either very short memories, very loose morals, or just were not here to see a city completely on the edge. And sorry, but a mysterious package under a bridge with protruding wires and visible electronic components sticking out of it is going to start a panic and security issue, even if it is adorned by Ignigokt flipping the bird.

Menino said he wants to find who at Turner Broadcasting was behind this and see if he can press charges. No matter what further chuckles this brings from people who say we don’t get the joke, I won’t stand in the mayor’s way.

More Info: This isn't the first time guerilla marketing has crossed the line. Hopefully it will be the last.

Mitt Romney: Good Riddance

As you know, Massachusetts has a new governor in Deval Patrick. Some people cannot wait until George W. Bush leaves office. That is the way I felt the last few weeks about now former Governor Mitt Romney. He is finally gone, and we are all the better for it.

Has a previous boyfriend, girlfriend or co-worker ever used you to get what they wanted and then dumped you? That is what Mitt Romney did to Massachusetts. He used the state governorship to simply add some experience to his resume so he can run for president, a job he will never win once more voters learn about his broken promises, shameless pandering to whatever constituency he had to suck up to, and ideological flip-flops that John Kerry would marvel at.

One of the rough things about politics is that you are always on the record and your words can come back to haunt you. One of the great things for voters is that new technology from places like YouTube can make this flip-flopping accessible to anyone. Romney first launched an unsuccessful Senate campaign against Ted Kennedy in 1994, and then won the gubernatorial race in 2002 on the same platform Massachusetts Republicans have used for decades – socially libertarian views that conform to the independent streak common in New England politics. Here he is espousing support for gay rights and abortion rights in 1994.

When Romney decided to run for President around 2004, he read the tea leaves and figured he would stand the best chance as the socially conservative candidate. Since then he has flipped on the issues and even come against other campaign issues he endorsed in 2002 like stem cell research. Romney knew he was committing political suicide in Massachusetts with his new views, but didn’t care because he had already abandoned the state to take on his quixotic presidential bid.

The whole thing left voters like me insulted and disgusted. Once again, it gave a bad impression of politicians saying anything to get elected. It’s one thing to disagree with someone’s views, but it’s worse if you don’t know when the person in charge of Massachusetts is lying or not. The whole situation gave the Massachusetts Republican party so much negative baggage that it doomed Kerry Healey’s own gubernatorial bid.

Romney continued his selfishness by leaving Massachusetts for over 200 days in 2006, mostly on campaigning and fundraising clips. At many of these, he made Massachusetts the butt of his lame jokes, saying “Being a conservative Republican in Massachusetts is like being a cattle rancher at a vegetarian convention.” Ho ho ho. For someone who didn’t even run as a conservative Republican, you sure have a nice way of treating your constituents, Mitt. And way to go helping your own state party as well. Trashing your state is not the same as trashing the state legislature.

If you are a true-blue Massachusetts Democrat, you can rejoice in Democrats finally getting the corner office after 16 years. If you are an independent like me who voted for Romney and feel used and dirty, you can look forward to this time next year when Mitt’s opponents have a Matrix-like arsenal of information they will used to destroy Romney’s credibility and squash his presidential bid before Super Tuesday. And if you are a Republican, send your hate mail to his Belmont mansion where you can correctly blame him for the one-party government we now have and the further irrelevancy of your party.

No Honor in Needham

When we were looking for a house in the Boston area last year, we looked at some houses in Needham. It’s a typical suburban town west of Boston with a train going through the middle of town square and lots of smaller, seriously overpriced Levittown-style houses, many of which are being bulldozed for McMansions as yuppies move in to take advantage of the close access to Boston and good school system. Lord knows it’s not the most exciting place to live and the town doesn’t have much identity, but it’s a perfectly respectable town to middle- and upper-middle-class families.

But now Needham has an identity: The town that discourages academic achievement.

For decades the town’s weekly newspaper, The Needham Times, has published the names of high school students who have made the honor roll. No longer. Stung by four student suicides in the last three years, Needham High School Principal Paul Richards has decided to take the kill-the-mosquito-with-a-bazooka approach and will no longer submit student honor roll names for publication. His reasoning is that publishing the names has created an overly competitive culture, causing stress and presenting “an unhealthy focus on grades.”

Ergo, by this logic, if the school does not publicize academic achievements, then all student stress will magically disappear. Then the school can focus on publicizing its equally important athletic achievements, which will still be covered by the local papers. Of course, publishing the names of the kids who scored touchdowns might upset and cause stress to those who didn’t make the team, or even the kids who decided studying might be more important than football, but that’s another bridge to cross.

Well, how does one choose to respond? Are we happy that underachievers and slackers now won’t be stigmatized because they won’t feel inferior to kids who work hard and get good grades? Was a thorough study taken to verify that it was the newspaper that was sending all these kids and their hypermotivated parents over the edge? Did anyone bother to ask the students who had earned the right to see their names in the paper for reasons other than delinquency and athletics whether they minded being omitted to appease the handful of parents who had suggested the idea to the principal in the first place.

There is a certainly a problem with stress and growing teenagers that need to live up to high parental expectations in better-off communities like Needham. But this overkill and ill-advised remedy is not the answer, and gives more ammunition to the perception of a PC-saturated world that seeks to remove all vestiges of competition and achievement in the well-intentioned but ill-advised idea of placing everyone on a level playing field. However noble that idea is, it doesn’t match up to reality where the bulk of Needham’s high school graduates will be entering a competitive and capitalistic world where achievement and hard work are the way to success.

Here’s my personal note to some disappointed Needham overachievers: I am disappointed for you, but at least you are aware of the importance of success in a world where standards count. And you are much smarter than your principal.

KKKramer?

We’ve all read about celebrities from Charles Lindbergh to Mel Gibson become infamous because of their racist or anti-Semitic ramblings, but thanks to today’s technology we can all witness these fascinating meltdowns ourselves. If you’re one of the few who have not witnessed Michael Richards’ career self-destruct before your very eyes, make sure you check it out here.

It’s all a shame, really. Like you, I was a big Kramer fan. He was by far the goofiest and most likeable member of the whole Seinfeld ensemble. I’d first seen Richards in a dumb movie called UHF, a Weird Al vehicle that didn’t even become a cult classic. But Richards, playing a dimwitted janitor, was the highlight, using his lean body and bizarre facial contortions for good laughs. Then he had a guest role on Night Court as a defendant who tries to convince Harry Anderson that he’s invisible. His dues finally paid off in the Kramer role he was born to play. I still watch the reruns and even though I’ve seen all the episodes plenty of times, he still makes me laugh. He’s one of the best physical comedians ever – not quite Belushi, but better than Chris Farley.

And now we watch the sad and pathetic racist tirades, all because of him being bothered by a heckler! You’d think someone like Richards would have developed thicker skin after all the years of hard work and obvious rejection that every struggling comic must go through. It also shows how tough it is to be a truly great stand up comedian. Someone like Lenny Bruce or George Carlin, whose talents lie with using language and twisting it to both reflect and belittle societal norms in a humorous way, could have taken “those words” as Richards calls them, and not only made them into a Teflon joke but also gotten the crowd behind the comedian and against the hecklers. Sacha Baron Cohen’s Borat character is a current master at this very tricky type of humor. Unfortunately, Richards’ talents lie more with scripted and physical performances, and he was too far out of his element here.

And if the stand up routine sent Richards’ career down in flames, the Late Show mea culpa on Monday night was even more awkward and painful to watch (which is why it was such great television). Richards was obviously still rattled and unprepared for a public apology, and he should have rehearsed his performance with a good publicist beforehand.

The American public tends to forgive its celebrities, but the forgiveness is often dependent on both the celebrity’s stature and what they did wrong. Sexual scandals like Hugh Grant’s, Marv Albert’s and Kobe Bryant’s are quickly forgotten. Drug and alcoholic binges that result in public humiliation are overlooked too, although not as quickly. But when racism or anti-Semitism is involved, the road back is much longer because the transgressions move from self-inflicted wounds to offending a large portion of the population. Fans can quickly become alienated. This is why Mel Gibson tried to spin his anti-Semitic rants into an alcoholic problem. Time will tell if the public will forgive him.

But Richards’ road back will be much more difficult, and not just because he is a smaller star than Gibson. To watch the hipster doofus we all loved as the goofy next door neighbor scream racial epithets, even in botched jest, may have been too much of a character shock for many of us to forget or forgive.

Some Free Advice for Gay Marriage Advocates

I live in Massachusetts, the only state where people of the same sex can legally wed. The issue was decided by the courts, not the people, and after the initial surprise most people here honestly couldn’t care less about the issue. I opined about this in one of my first blog entries and my views haven’t changed. If you’re a man and want to marry another man, have a blast. Same for the ladies.

But most people around the country don’t feel the same way. They believe marriage should be between a man and a woman. The issue mobilized religious partisans from black churches to fundamentalist Baptists, and they were joined by plenty of other, mainly older, people who were more open-minded and not even homophobic, but didn’t feel comfortable about the whole idea. The Republicans pounced on it in 2004, and it was one of several issues that led them to victory that year.

If you look at the state-by-state vote tally (about halfway down the page) you’ll see that when put to a popular vote, gay marriage didn’t even come close to a victory in any state, even the states that Kerry won, like Michigan and Oregon. Moreover, virtually all Democrats, including Kerry and both Clintons, have rejected the idea. Clearly, most Americans are not ready for gay marriage.

So if you’re a gay marriage advocate, what do you do? I think the problem is that they’re trying to hit a home run when they can win the game with base hits. They’re overreaching their goals and overestimating what the public accepts. That’s not fair, but that’s the way it is, and they need to play the game better.

If you look back at the top of the Wikipedia page, which I hope is accurate, you’ll notice that many legislatures or courts have permitted the “civil union” compromise to proceed. This is marriage in all but name, with more legal and estate rights than most common-law marriages, although it varies a bit with each state. Polls have also consistently shown that voters are more tolerant of civil unions than the marriage proposal.

So my advice would be to step back and stop with the “M” word. Try civil unions first, preferably through the legislature or courts instead of the ballot box. Then a few years later after everyone has settled down and understand their marriages haven’t changed, then you try the marriage route. But only if the civil unions are in place and established first, because then you have your fallback option.

Some people may read this and think that civil unions are not enough – they want to be just as happily married as Elizabeth Taylor and Larry King are. And don't forget that meeting of the minds with Britney Spears and Kevin Federline. That’s understandable, but as an old geezer once said, you can’t always get what you want, but sometimes you get what you need. When you’re rolling out a radical new concept, caution and patience are sometimes the way you pull things off. Things like integration and third world independence didn’t happen overnight either, but they were also done slowly and through the courts or governments instead of the popular vote.

The best advice I ever heard about negotiating came from Ronald Reagan. Reagan said if you’re negotiating and the other side makes an offer that gives you at least 51% of what you want, take the deal. Then, six months later or whenever the time is right, go back to the other side, show them the results to prove how right you were, and you’ll get the other 49%. Civil unions offer quite a bit of what gay marriage advocates want. Take the deal, and come back to the table later.

Conservatives? What Conservatives?

These are very, very strange political times we’re living in. Make sure that when we’re older we tell our children and grandchildren about the middle of this decade when the ideologies of both parties were going down the drain.

The Democrats have no platform, no new ideas, no leaders and absolutely no clue about what will happen should they gain control of Congress. Their most likely leaders are so far left of the mainstream that their ideas would be considered loopy in what’s left of socialist Europe. And these are the guys that people want to run the country right now.

Why? Because the GOP, once a bedrock of classical conservatism, is even worse. I grew up in the time of Ronald Reagan, who was hailed as a model of the Goldwater small government, Jefferson-style individualist, so perhaps I’m biased. But neither Ronnie nor Barry would recognize the Party today. Read some of these statements from Goldwater to realize how low the GOP has sunk and why Election/Judgment Day cannot come soon enough.

What used to be the national Republican party has sunk to a theocratic bully pulpit that advocates prejudice against homosexuals, a usurpation of the Constitution by the executive branch, an out-of-control deficit spurred by GOP-sponsored pork spreads, laws that suspend habeas corpus for prisoners, etc, etc. I don’t need to go on. Unless you are a religious fanatic or a blind GOP partisan, this party does not represent you and is not worthy of your respect.

How telling that just a decade ago, conservative sages were intellectuals like George Will and William Buckley, who used their intelligence to calmly refute their detractors. Today, hacks like Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity spew hateful vitriol at anyone who has the nerve to think differently from them. They have even turned against many of their own party, including many of the Northeastern Republicans who continue to advocate keeping the religion out of government and the government out of your home. Reagan worked hard to bring the suburban moderates into the party – people who just want the government to do basic services, take less of their money in taxes and not give them a hard time if they had to go to Town Hall to apply for a work permit.

David Brooks (another classic conservative who has been called a liberal(!) by these bullies) has it right again – these educated suburbanites go to church and synagogues, but don’t want religion in their government. They read The New York Times and The Washington Post, but for the caliber of writing rather than the ideology. They get their frappuccinos at Starbucks, but understand the coffee chain’s dominance is due to capitalism, marketing and consumer choice instead of exploitation and corporate tax breaks.

How telling that what has finally given the GOP a spring in its step is not Iraq, deficit spending, fixing America’s perception to other countries or even the Taliban resurgence. It is the specter of gay marriage in New Jersey. Again, dogma trumps reason and freedom for the individual in today’s GOP. And don’t forget that whole competence issue I brought up last week.

Six months ago I thought the Republicans could never lose Congress due to the power of incumbency, their fundraising strength and the utter incompetence of the Democrats to offer an alternative. The Democrats are still incompetent, but to America incompetence is better than utter failure. Yes, times are strange today. On November 8, things just may start to look a bit more normal.

More Info: Looks like even big business and the lobbying industry is reading the tea leaves.

Last Legs for the Last Prejudice?

You know things are looking bad for the Republicans when I actually agree with everything Frank Rich said this weekend (subscription required – bleah.) Now don’t get me wrong – I think Rich is the Rush Limbaugh of the Left, although he’s much a better writer. But the points he makes in conjunction with David Kuo’s new book are valid: There are just as many homosexuals in the GOP as anywhere else and they are widely accepted, all of which is completely contradicted by the anti-homosexual platform the GOP espouses to win elections with evangelical backings.

The intolerance isn’t surprising. Homophobia is pretty much the last acceptable cultural prejudice in our society. But the Republicans decided to drum up support with a gay-bashing crusade without checking to see if their own house was in order. True evangelicals are probably feeling dumbfounded and hoodwinked as the air slowly begins to seep out of their self-righteous bubble.

Why am I having flashbacks to Kathie Lee Gifford, who repeatedly placed her perfect marriage and husband on a pedestal only to witness the public delight when her husband was caught cheating on her? It shows how tenuous the so-called moral values issue can be. It also makes the inevitable fall from grace irresistible to the masses who are so aware of their own flaws and secretly seethe at anyone who professes to not only be perfect, but also has the gall to position themselves as an example of what an acceptable lifestyle should be. Would the Democrats do the same cover-up and spinning of a Mark Foley scandal if they were in power? Of course, and they have. But they never ran on a moral values and gay-hating agenda.

The chickens have come home to roost here. Using a demographic group for political gain is nothing new, but I will be very interested in seeing how evangelicals use this information about Mark Foley and David Kuo on Election Day. Hell may have no fury like a Holy Roller scorned.

Some Free Advice for the GOP

As little as three months ago I still believed the Republicans would hold onto the House and Senate because of the three most important factors in midterm elections – incumbency, gerrymandering and fundraising prowess – three items that are never acknowledged by the mainstream until after the fact. I also believed the Republicans would prevail because of the complete vacuum of any new ideas from the Keystone Kops running the Democratic Party. Sure, the Republicans have the wrong ideas, but at least they have ideas.

Now I’m not so sure. It truly is looking like 1994 again – a one-party government featuring an unpopular president with a do-nothing Congress that can’t get anything accomplished without fear of alienating its minority base or shooting itself in the ass. Congressional leadership is barren and Hastert’s cover-up in the Foley scandal has undermined the moral values train that evangelical partisans could always cling to. Imagine their horror at finding homosexuals in the Republican Party! But I digress.

Like Chauncey Gardner in Being There, the Democrats may have just lucked into an opportunity they are neither qualified nor quite ready for. Many of the more open-minded Republicans have announced they are either staying home or holding a protest vote for a Democrat. But they are not voting for Democrats because of their ideals or great leaders, they may be voting Democrat because that’s the only option available. Such a vote is not ironclad and can easily be changed.

I’m not a Republican, but I’m going to give the GOP a little free advice. The blogosphere is amuck with plans to fire Rumsfeld, ramp up troops in Iraq to where they should be, announce a withdrawal plan, kick Hastert to the curb and other big steps to occur after the election, no matter what happens on Election Day. My advice: Why wait?

Nip the Foley scandal in the bud by letting Hastert step down as majority leader but keep his seat. Announce a plan for Rumsfeld to step down at the end of 2006. Have the next Defense Secretary announce a withdrawal plan to bring troops home in the next year or two. Do one or all of these things now, and you control the agenda again and sap the opposition of any ammunition.

After all, it’s not like the Democrats have proposed anything of their own. Why let them walk over you? Call their bluff. It’s so crazy it just might work.

The Competence Question

Some people are to-the-death Democrats who will vote for any Democratic candidate from Marion Barry to Ted Kennedy. Others are die-hard Republicans who have no problem pulling the lever for someone like Mark Foley or Tom DeLay just because they’re Republican. This naïve and blind faith is almost quaint to me. These otherwise rational people would agree that unquestioning devotion to just about anything would be dangerous in any other fashion, but not politics or ideology.

To the rest of us, including many who don’t follow public affairs as passionately as I do, politics comes down to a matter of competence mixed with your personal and cultural mores and ethics. For me, it can come down to intelligence. Who’s the smarter candidate? Which empirical, not ideological, argument makes the most sense? I can’t work for anyone dumber than me, so I wouldn’t want to vote for someone who’s dumber either.

But as we approach the 2006 elections, competence is up for the public to decide. Republicans have been in charge for six years – long enough to develop a track record. And for me, the past six years have been marked by a steady decline in competence and a startling rise in mismanagement, buck passing and decisions that have true nonpartisans wondering when the real conservatives left the Republican Party.

If you take a pure, non-partisan, competence-only look at what the Republicans have presided over during the last six years, you find a downward spiral of incompetence and incomplete efforts that leave you wondering who’s steering the ship. Of course, Iraq has deteriorated into a civil war that could have been easily prevented with some forward thinking and the equivalent of a Marshall Plan. Every week another book comes out or military leader comes forward that emphasizes the administration’s incompetence. This is especially painful for me because people are dying and I strongly supported the decision to go to war because a democratic Iraq would be the best anti-fundamentalist medicine you could have. With the exception of Saddam Hussein’s capture and trial, we have the opposite – an anarchic Iraq that could drag additional countries into a larger conflict. This is completely preventable incompetence of the highest order, and Donald Rumsfeld, the man in charge of this, is still employed.

Afghanistan is not much better. Last week’s Newsweek story seriously depressed me. The advice they give to “stay the course” in these conflicts again belies incompetence – look at where this course has brought us! If anything, now is the chance to change and possibly get things right! If the Republicans want to make the war on terror the centerpiece of their campaign, then the voters need to assess how competently they have waged this war.

I’ll weigh in with thoughts on various other issues over the next few weeks, but Republicans everywhere should be assessing the competence of their leaders. Are you satisfied with the way the leaders have dealt with other critical issues, like Mark Foley, finding new sources of energy so we don’t help rogue states like Venezuela and Iran by buying their oil? When you look at conservative canards like smaller government, less spending and limits on executive power, has the party served you well? Is this the best the Party can do? Does their track record earn them another two years in power? And finally, if they were not Republicans, how would they vote?

A Pin Drops in Fenway Park

If you don’t live in Boston, you have no idea how devoted local Bostonians are to their Red Sox. No matter how successful the other teams may be, this is first and foremost a baseball town. In the dead of winter, a Red Sox free agent pickup will run at the top of the sports pages over a Celtics or Patriots victory.

The Red Sox have the payroll to put a competitive team in the American League East for years, and of course the long championship drought ended in 2004. But despite the league’s second highest payroll, injuries and an underachieving bullpen have devastated the Red Sox this year, and the team will not make the playoffs.

The Red Sox jumped the shark after the Yankees swept a five-game series at Fenway in August, and since then the team has vanished. It’s bizarre. The team is a non-entity here, with game summaries disappearing into the back pages. No traffic jams at Kenmore Square. Tickets are easy to obtain, and scalpers aren't making a dime. Fans aren’t even talking about next year. The team and its owners are being treated like jilted lovers – completely erased from Bostonian lives.

I didn’t make any baseball predictions this year, but last year I said baseball’s steady decline in popularity was due to its financial structure that places rich teams in large markets like New York an advantage over many of the small market teams, and the best bet to succeed in baseball is to be able to afford the best stars money can buy. Of course I’m a capitalist, but the NFL, the NBA and, belatedly, the NHL learned that a salary cap is the best financial solvent for sports and the best way for every team to have a shot at a championship.

For small market and small payroll teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh, there is no way they will ever compete with the large payroll teams. This has caused baseball TV ratings (and subsequent revenues) to plummet and baseball now ranks behind football, NASCAR and basketball in popularity. What is the point of following baseball in a place like Tampa Bay or Milwaukee knowing your team never has a chance of competing?

Here in Boston, the Red Sox’s disappointing season has brought this point home. It’s bizarre to be in a place where baseball has practically ceased to exist. Unfortunately, this is the case in most of the country, and baseball has reaped what it has sown.

The Unimportance of a Top-Ranked College

Many college freshmen are starting their university lives in colleges they didn’t want to enter. Either they didn’t quite qualify for that Ivy League degree or, more likely, they couldn’t afford to get into the higher-rated school. If they come from a wealthy suburb and an upper-middle-class home, their parents are apoplectic and almost apologize to their friends for their failure to motivate their children into a school with a better U.S. News & World Report ranking.

While things like money and a family fortune can start you at first or second base in the game of life (instead of starting in the batter’s box), the importance of a name-brand prep school or a top-tier education are grossly overrated when it comes to defining tomorrow’s leaders. A recent Wall Street Journal column illustrates the relative unimportance of top schools with later success. Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott attended Pittsburg State University. ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson went to the University Texas. Warren Buffet graduated from the University of Nebraska. Current Intel and Costco CEOs attended local state schools nobody 50 miles away from the college has heard of, including me. If you scan the Fortune 500, only 10% of their CEOs attended an Ivy League school, and more attended the University of Wisconsin than Harvard.

Intelligence and connections are nice to have, and it will certainly never hurt to have that Ivy League degree, but ambition and drive trumps everything else. Whether you want to run a Fortune 500 or be an entrepreneur or even a professional athlete, the people who work the hardest and try the hardest are the ones who typically end up succeeding. They don’t let the lack of a big-time and expense-laden Ivy League education hold them back. I didn’t attend an Ivy League school, but my friends and I used to joke every time we walked through Harvard Square we were probably walking past bums who were smarter than we were. The will to succeed, plus an old-fashioned work ethic, will always overcome IQ and what it says on your diploma.

Many of our business leaders didn’t even finish college. The exploits of people like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Ted Turner and Michael Dell are legendary in business circles. They didn’t let their education or mediocre grades slow them down. And don’t forget – after your first job, your education goes from the top of your resume to the bottom. You will learn more about business and reality in the first six months out of school than the four or more years you spent in it. And if you talk up your SAT scores or college GPA on your first job interview, you’ll be tarred as foolish and unready for a career. And if you try to impress future dates or make new friends by impressing them with what you learned in school or your inclusion in the honors society, you’ll be alone every Saturday.

When I look back on my prep high school, I recall that many of the people who got A’s basically regurgitated whatever the teachers told them on tests and papers. That probably got them into good colleges, but when you enter the business world, doing everything by the book will probably get you stuck in middle management. The real leaders challenge rules, and find new ways to solve problems – they take risks by not doing what they’ve learned in school or even on the job. Sometimes they fail, but more often they’ll be more happy and successful than those who continue to do it the rote way.

So if you are reading this and didn’t get into the college of your choice, or blame your lot in life on your job or education, stop fretting. You’re smarter than you think, and you find smart people at every job and college. Take a look at some of them, learn where they went to school, and you’ll understand why the name of your college or what it says on your diploma does not predict your future. None of the people I mentioned above would let their lives be foretold by a dippy high school guidance counselor or college admissions officer, and neither should anyone else.

What's the Matter with Beverly Hills?

One of the Democrats’ biggest brouhahas about the 2004 elections (and 2002, and 2000, and maybe 2006) is that too many Midwesterners and Southerners were voting against their class interests and common sense by pulling the GOP lever. Why aren’t these people using their brains and voting for the party that would better help them?

This conundrum has truly baffled the Democratic partisans who are trying to crack the red state barrier (states are only red and blue in the electoral college, not in any other election, but that’s another blog.) Nowhere are these grapes sourer than the elite liberal enclaves of Beverly Hills, the Upper West Side, Harvard Square and similar wealthy bastions around the country where people need to look in the mirror – for they are just as badly voting against their best interests!

Think about it. Don’t these super rich, white, ultra-privileged celebrities, scholars and investor-savvy folks understand the huge tax breaks they’ve received under the Republicans? Why are they so against the war in Iraq, when there is less than a zero chance that any of their sons and daughters will volunteer to fight among the misguided soldiers from the red states? How could they be against the plans to tighten our borders when hordes of illegal aliens raise their children, mow their lawns and clean their penthouses so they can get a table at Nobu, play squash and hit the day spa?

Why, the same people wonder, do so many red staters think only of moral issues when casting their vote? Why do they rely on the Bible when there’s The New Yorker and Vanity Fair? How could they live in a backwater like Nebraska where there’s no Four Star Szechuan restaurants around the corner? Why do they head to Branson or Las Vegas for vacation when it’s quicker to fly to Paris or take the helicopter to the Hamptons? And just how can they possibly enjoy these mainstream, big budget Hollywood movies when The New York Times gave a four star review to this artsy French film on the Renaissance?

Hey, I think they’re right. If the Republicans have lost the Upper West Side, then they might lose Malibu next. Maybe a Barbra Streisand film festival at the White House could help, before it’s too late.

More info:

What's the Matter with Kansas? -- A very good, although not completely flawless, book about how the Democrats lost the blue collar, Midwestern vote to the Republicans. I goofed on its flaws with my lame jokes in this post, but you should read it anyway.

The Dumb Get Dumber

Just when you thought Harvard couldn’t sink any lower, along comes a speaking invitation to former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami, the previous “reformer” president who didn’t do much reforming. While Khatami isn’t the reactionary Holocaust denier that current Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is, he makes no apologies for backing Hezbollah, shutting down all anti-government newspapers and flagrant human rights abuses that occurred under his tenure.

It is equally sad that Harvard’s once-esteemed Kennedy School of Government scheduled Khatami to speak on September 10, the eve of the five-year anniversary of 9/11. Governor Mitt Romney was so furious that he ordered the State Police not to provide security, standard protocol for any visiting head of state. And Khatami was greeted by over 200 protesters from Harvard’s Democratic and Republican student clubs (yes, there are Republicans there), who had united in solidarity to protest both the former president and the university’s inane decision to let him speak.

Kudos to Governor Romney and also to Boston College, who rejected a visit by Khatami. After Hezbollah started the latest Middle Eastern war and helped set Lebanon back a decade in its redevelopment, inviting a man who helped terrorism prosper is stunning in both naiveté and ignorance. It would be nice to extend an invitation to the real reformers in Iran, many of whom are either imprisoned or in exile. Maybe they could teach the guys at Harvard something.

2006 NFL Forecast and Football Cheat Sheet

Welcome to another year of AFC domination.

As I was going through these teams, absorbing the free agency signings and draft choices one thing became clear: The AFC is a much better division. While the NFC has some very good teams, you generally see a lot of 12-4 records or 4-12 records there. The AFC has many potential juggernauts, and there are always a couple of teams that come out of nowhere to surprise you (my Dark Horse picks).

Also, Seattle didn’t lose many players and should repeat as NFC West Champions, but they could just as easily fall into the dreaded Super Bowl Loser Curse. For the last few years, the previous year’s Super Bowl loser has failed to even make the playoffs the following year. It shouldn’t happen, but would you have picked the Eagles to finish 6-10 last year?

As you can see, making these picks is like trying to guess what the price of oil will be in December. But that’s what make those office football pools so much fun.

NFC EAST

1) Washington – The NFC Beast is almost back, with three good (but not great) teams here making it tough to call a winner. Tiebreakers and unfortunate injuries will probably determine the winner. I’m going to go with Washington just over the Giants, because of Washington’s truly scary defense and a smart guy like Joe Gibbs running the show. Unfortunately, Washington has an unsettled QB situation and RB Clinton Portis’ shoulder is iffy. I hate Daniel Snyder as much as the next guy, but if the QB works out, the Skins can do it.

2) NY Giants – Wild Card Team. Solid team, but too many question marks. Will Eli Manning play the way he did in the first half or second half? Will Plaxico Burress stop dropping passes and give Tiki Barber a break? Will the secondary pick off a pass once in a while? The Giants do have a great pass rush that will keep them over .500, and if some of those questions are answered they shouldn’t miss the playoffs.

3) Dallas – Wild Card Team. Lots of people are picking Dallas as their NFC Super Bowl rep this year. I don’t buy it. Terrell Owens is a nitwit, Drew Bledsoe is iffy and RB Julius Jones is not at the same level as Portis and Barber. The defense is good, but you gotta move the ball too.

4) Philadelphia – No offensive improvement and the defense is two years older. I’m two years older as well, but I don’t have to go past a wall of 300 pounders to sack a QB for a living.

NFC NORTH

1) Chicago – Not a great team, but if you were in the same division as Detroit and Green Bay you wouldn’t have to do much to win either. Lovie Boy has a nasty defensive team and a putrid offense that is so inept Brian Griese won the QB battle.

2) Minnesota – New owner. Check. New coach (Brad Childress). Uh, OK, check. New RB (Chester Taylor?!). Uh….check, I guess. New quarterback (Brad Johnson). Check please!

3) Detroit – All hail Matt Millen, HERO OF THE STUPID. Even President Bush laughs at Millen’s idiocy and incompetence. Millen, who lost 38 more games than he’s won since becoming GM, also has a new coach, quarterback and offensive coordinator. Unfortunately a fish rots from the head. Detroit and Millen’s sub-.500 lifetime winning percentage is safe for another year.

4) Green Bay – About the time he’s been sacked for the umpteenth time around Week 10, Brett Farve will say, “You know, Jerome Bettis sure looks comfortable on that sideline.”

NFC SOUTH

1) Carolina – Last year I predicted the Panthers would go to the Super Bowl, and they made it to the NFC Championship. They better go this year since I don’t want to look dumb again. The Panthers’ only problem was their running game, which seems to be fixed with DeShaun Foster staying healthy and top draft choice DeAngelo Williams. And how cool is John Fox?

2) Tampa Bay – I don’t know. I want to like Chris Simms since I was such a big fan of his dad, but I only see the Bucs as a .500 team. There’s some good young offense with Cadillac Williams and Joey Galloway, but the defense is almost unchanged since the Super Bowl, when the entire defensive line was older than me.

3) Atlanta – The Falcons defense is OK and they had some good offseason signings. But Vick is the Josh Beckett of the NFL – too impatient and quick to run before checking his receivers. I see another .500 season.

4) New Orleans – At least this year the Saints will play a few games at home. They are still not a good team, but Drew Brees and Reggie Bush will get them up to five or six wins.

NFC WEST

1) Seattle – The Super Bowl loser curse notwithstanding, Seattle should still win their division for the same reason the Panthers and Bears should win theirs – most of the other teams suck. On paper they look good, but I don’t envision another Super Bowl appearance against Carolina or the NFC East winner. The Seahawks just seem too, I don’t know – finesse? Maybe it’s the matching pants and jerseys.

2) Arizona – My NFC dark horse team. Getting to .500 would be cause for celebration in the desert. Last year the Cardinals were weird – they had a top 10 offense and defense but finished 5-11. The good parts – a great field goal kicker in Neil Rackers, two great wideouts in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin and killer defense with Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor – returns. This year, Arizona also signed Edgerrin James from the Colts and has a new stadium. QB Kurt Warner is a question mark, but USC’s Matt Lienart is on the bench.

3) St. Louis – Not having a defense will catch up to you when Mike Martz leaves. QB Marc Bulger and RB Steve Jackson are good, but no names on D will doom the Rams.

4) San Francisco – One year, all these high draft choices will pay off. Unless Matt Millen comes back.

AFC EAST

1) New England – The weakest Patriots team in five years benefits from the weakest AFC division, just like last year. This year, Tom Brady returns with no Adam Vinatieri, no Willie McGinest, no David Givens (actually, nobody at all at WR) and no Ted Johnson. On the plus side, Rodney Harrison and the entire secondary are finally healthy, new RB Laurence Maroney looks good, and when you play Buffalo and the Jets twice each year you already have four wins.

2) Miami – Wild Card Team and my AFC dark horse team. Did you notice that Miami went 2-14 in 2004, and won its last six games last year to finish 9-7? This year a healthy Daunte Culpepper is leading the Dolphins and they don’t have to deal with that basehead Ricky Williams anymore.

3) Buffalo – I can’t get excited about a team that has named J.P. Losman as their starting QB. Willis McGahee will probably wear out faster than any other RB in football.

4) NY Jets – Bleah. All the Jets good defensive players left in free agency, former coach Herman Edwards served them, and Curtis Martin is out for the first half of the year. QB Chad Pennington has talent, but goes out for a month if he has a paper cut.

AFC NORTH

1) Pittsburgh – The champs return with most of the team intact, although Ben Roethlisberger proved he’s not as bright off the field. If he finds his helmet and stays healthy the Steelers should repeat. Fast Willie Parker can fill the Bus’ parking spot.

2) Cincinnati – Wild Card Team. I love what Marvin Lewis has done in Cincinnati, but now the roster reads like America’s Most Wanted. They should be OK if their good players stay out of jail and Carson Palmer’s knee is OK. The Bengals also must do much better on defense.

3) Baltimore – Not a bad team, but not a great one. Sounds like .500 to me. Does Ray Lewis scare anyone anymore? Will RB Jamal Lewis ever have another good year? Can Steve “Air” McNair do his magic again? Too many questions.

4) Cleveland – The Browns can’t catch a break (oops!) with their number one draft choices. They can’t settle on a QB either (the immortal Charlie Frye will start) and LeCharles Bentley, their top offensive free agent signing, went down for the season in minicamp. The defense is OK, but this is a tough division for a rebuilding team.

AFC SOUTH

1) Indianapolis – I seem to be the only one worried about the Colts’ running game. Substituting Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai for Edgerrin James is not a lock. The Colts defense is finally solid and Peyton Manning is still great, although he’s worse than Dan Marino at winning the big one – so far. I feel like the Colts think they deserve to win the Super Bowl, but to quote Clint Eastwood, deserve’s got nothing to do with it.

2) Jacksonville – Wild Card Team. Last year I picked Jacksonville as my Dark Horse and they surprised lots of teams by going 12-4. This year they’re still good but teams are ready for them. The Jaguars’ D is frighteningly good. If QB Byron Leftwich can move the ball a bit more and RB Fred Taylor keeps pounding, the Jaguars will go far.

3) Tennessee – Still rebuilding, especially at QB. McNair left, so backup Billy Volek was named the starter. He sucked so bad in minicamp that Kerry Collins was brought it, and Texas’ Vince Young sits on the bench, waiting. But with too many defensive holes and nobody for whoever the QB is to throw to, Vince may start sooner than he expects. Just be careful what you wish for.

4) Texas – Three wins would be an improvement over last year. Houston has no RB (after they passed on Reggie Bush) and an offensive line that has led the league in sacks allowed since the team started.

AFC WEST

1) Denver – The Broncos feature their best defense in years, but the X factor is the offense. Last year QB Jake the Fake Plummer finally learned he had to throw to the guys on his own team, and Denver went 13-3. Then in the playoffs he remembered he sucked and the Steelers smacked him all over the field. RB Mike Anderson is gone, and two guys named Bell are replacing him. Thousand-yard rushers appear to grow on trees in the Rockies, but Plummer’s consistency is the test.

2) San Diego – Lots of people have ripped the Chargers a new one for letting Drew Brees go. It was a stupid move, but if Philip Rivers does OK the Chargers could go over .500. LaDanian Tomlinson is the best RB in football and the defense is tight. Of course if Rivers blows, then they’re chumps.

3) Kansas City – Herman Edwards is a good guy with a big problem. For about 10 years, the Chiefs have had the best offense in football and have made the playoffs once. Perhaps the problem could be on the DEFENSE? What was done to improve the defense in the offseason? Oh, nothing? Then let’s move on.

4) Oakland – Now I’m not saying Kerry Collins is the best quarterback, but why would you replace him with Aaron Brooks, whose mistakes led the Saints to three wins last year? Remember Warren Sapp? He’s starting on the Raiders. Enough said.

The Very Busy Blogger Returns

Hi, remember me?

It’s funny how having a full-time job, being a full-time father of two wonderful yet demanding children, working on your house and going to graduate school part time can eat away at one’s blogging schedule. I knew when I started I was going to do this part time, but I have certainly been guilty by absence.

I like writing the long essays and editorials posted here, but writing them takes a while and I don’t have the time to write these long features anymore. So I’m going to take a page from the Daily Koses and Instapundits of the world and go for shorter, and more frequent, updates.

There’s lots going on right now from national elections to a bizarre looking gubernatorial race here in Massachusetts. I don’t normally follow celebrity news, but I have become fascinated with the Britney Spears/Kevin Federline dance of the nitwits, and want to write something on that once I figure out which one is the brain behind that relationship. Click here to see these fascinating minds at work.

So I’ll post my football thoughts tomorrow, and more frequent updates in the future. I promise.